Last night (14 - 15 April 2024,) Iran's anticipated retaliation for Israel's strikes on Iranian assets in Syria took place, when a large number of drones and around 15 cruise missiles were launched at targets in Israeli territory. Propaganda released by Israel and its western allies claims that 'most' of the Iranian equipment was shot down, but did not state how many or of what type. With luck and a bit of common sense on both sides that might be the end of the matter.
What should concern us all now is whether Israel will retaliate to this retaliatory attack for Israel's regular assaults on Hezbollah militias which have for months been shelling and bombing targets within Israel in retaliation for Israsel's invasion and alleged genocide in Gaza which in turn was a retaliation for the brutal and murderous incursion into Israel's territory by Hamas terrorists on October 7th, 2023.
But now Israel is threatening more strikes against Iran in retaliation for last night's attack. The growing worry is that if these tit-for-tat attacks continue one side or the other will bomb a major population centre, an act which would guarantee a response from the major powers, USA and China, that are allied to Israel and Iran respectively. And as this blog has tried to warn readers many times, there are elements in both nations that would welcome such a development.
It is difficult to see a way out of this situation, but further escalation will almost certainly result in all out war. In propaganda releases both sides are claiming victory in last nights action, as reported above Israeli sources claim most of the drones and missiles were shot down while The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, announced on Sunday that two important Israeli military sites were targeted in Iran's response and hinted that the drones were merely a distraction.
According to Bagheri, the Israeli intelligence's headquarters in "Mount Hermon," and the Nevatim Air Base were destroyed in the operation carried out earlier today, dubbed Truthful Promise. “A considerable number of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles have been used in this operation with well-thought-out tactics and proper planning, as neither the Iron Dome nor the Zionist regime’s missile defense shield could take any significant action against this operation."
“Their [Israeli] population and economic centers were not hit, so that the criminal and aggressive Zionist army would realize that their action won’t remain unanswered. We are definitely prepared to defend our soil and interests,” the army chief said. Bagheri said that Washington knew about the attack on Iran's consulate, and "it gave the green light to the [Israeli] occupation entity" to carry out the strike.
"If the Zionist entity retaliates against Iran, our next response will certainly be much broader than this operation." - Commander of the Iranian Revolution Guard Corps, Brigadier General Hussein Salami, said that verified reports showed that the Iranian response has been significantly more successful than anticipated. Salami said that Tehran is still gathering further intel about the damage caused by the missiles on the targets, "but a number of the impacts, about which we have accurate, documented and field reports on, reveal that the operation [had] greater-than-expected success,” He emphasized that "It could have been conducted on a wider scope, but we confined to Israeli facilities used to attack our consulate [in Damascus)]”.
He also said that the Iranians have cemented "a new equation with the Zionist entity," which is to respond to any attack on Iranian territories, announcing the start of a "new page of confrontation with the Zionist enemy." On analyzing the reports from both sides it seems there were two attacks overnight. The first was by slow, easily neutralised drones, this was announced in advance by Iranian sources. The low cost Iranian drones are easy to defend against and so claim victory. The second attack was with cruise missiles, on military targets, and apparently succeeded to some extent as Israel has not denied Iran's claims to have hit military targets.
More significant perhaps is that Israel's air defenses were turned up to 11 last night with (allegedly) GPS jamming, anti-missile systems fully engaged, NATO providing intel, and US, UK & Jordanian Air Forces involved. Yet that lot still (apparently) failed to stop attacks on Israeli airbase(s) so the much hyped Iron Dome did not work.
The airbases targeted are likely to host US nukes and that is what makes the attack such a big deal . It tells the US that their nukes aren't safe in Israel which may create many problems if it comes to light that Israel officially has US nukes?
More concerning for anyone smart enought to know that should this incident escalate the antagonists are two nations run by religious fanatics. Neither government would let a little think like the destruction of all human civilsation stand in the way of defending their god. So further escalation could easily mean we;re all fucked. How fucked are we? you might well ask. If it kicks off we're fucking fucked.
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