Last night (14 - 15 April 2024,) Iran's anticipated retaliation for Israel's strikes on Iranian assets in Syria took place, when a large number of drones and around 15 cruise missiles were launched at targets in Israeli territory. Propaganda released by Israel and its western allies claims that 'most' of the Iranian equipment was shot down, but did not state how many or of what type. With luck and a bit of common sense on both sides that might be the end of the matter.
What should concern us all now is whether Israel will retaliate to this retaliatory attack for Israel's regular assaults on Hezbollah militias which have for months been shelling and bombing targets within Israel in retaliation for Israsel's invasion and alleged genocide in Gaza which in turn was a retaliation for the brutal and murderous incursion into Israel's territory by Hamas terrorists on October 7th, 2023.
But now Israel is threatening more strikes against Iran in retaliation for last night's attack. The growing worry is that if these tit-for-tat attacks continue one side or the other will bomb a major population centre, an act which would guarantee a response from the major powers, USA and China, that are allied to Israel and Iran respectively. And as this blog has tried to warn readers many times, there are elements in both nations that would welcome such a development.
It is difficult to see a way out of this situation, but further escalation will almost certainly result in all out war.
In propaganda releases both sides are claiming victory in last nights action, as reported above Israeli sources claim most of the drones and missiles were shot down while The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, announced on Sunday that two important Israeli military sites were targeted in Iran's response and hinted that the drones were merely a distraction.
According to Bagheri, the Israeli intelligence's headquarters in "Mount Hermon," and the Nevatim Air Base were destroyed in the operation carried out earlier today, dubbed Truthful Promise.
“A considerable number of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles have been used in this operation with well-thought-out tactics and proper planning, as neither the Iron Dome nor the Zionist regime’s missile defense shield could take any significant action against this operation."
“Their [Israeli] population and economic centers were not hit, so that the criminal and aggressive Zionist army would realize that their action won’t remain unanswered. We are definitely prepared to defend our soil and interests,” the army chief said.
Bagheri said that Washington knew about the attack on Iran's consulate, and "it gave the green light to the [Israeli] occupation entity" to carry out the strike.
"If the Zionist entity retaliates against Iran, our next response will certainly be much broader than this operation."
- Commander of the Iranian Revolution Guard Corps, Brigadier General Hussein Salami, said that verified reports showed that the Iranian response has been significantly more successful than anticipated.
Salami said that Tehran is still gathering further intel about the damage caused by the missiles on the targets, "but a number of the impacts, about which we have accurate, documented and field reports on, reveal that the operation [had] greater-than-expected success,”
He emphasized that "It could have been conducted on a wider scope, but we confined to Israeli facilities used to attack our consulate [in Damascus)]”.
He also said that the Iranians have cemented "a new equation with the Zionist entity," which is to respond to any attack on Iranian territories, announcing the start of a "new page of confrontation with the Zionist enemy."
On analyzing the reports from both sides it seems there were two attacks overnight. The first was by slow, easily neutralised drones, this was announced in advance by Iranian sources. The low cost Iranian drones are easy to defend against and so claim victory. The second attack was with cruise missiles, on military targets, and apparently succeeded to some extent as Israel has not denied Iran's claims to have hit military targets.
More significant perhaps is that Israel's air defenses were turned up to 11 last night with (allegedly) GPS jamming, anti-missile systems fully engaged, NATO providing intel, and US, UK & Jordanian Air Forces involved. Yet that lot still (apparently) failed to stop attacks on Israeli airbase(s) so the much hyped Iron Dome did not work.
The airbases targeted are likely to host US nukes and that is what makes the attack such a big deal . It tells the US that their nukes aren't safe in Israel which may create many problems if it comes to light that Israel officially has US nukes?
More concerning for anyone smart enought to know that should this incident escalate the antagonists are two nations run by religious fanatics. Neither government would let a little think like the destruction of all human civilsation stand in the way of defending their god. So further escalation could easily mean we;re all fucked.
How fucked are we? you might well ask.
If it kicks off we're fucking fucked.
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The hold-up in allowing use of US/UK programmed Storm Shadows to attack targets in Russia is presumably due to Putin stating that would be equivalent to a declaration of war on Russia by those two countries, and Russia would react with the complete destruction of Kiev followed by immediate missile attacks on UK, Belgium, Germany and USA. Note that none of these countries has an air defence system effective against hypersonic missiles.
To put things in perspective we need people to understand how western voters have been gaslit over this war, from the day in April 2022 when on a previous visit to Kiev, the aforementioned Boris devivered the message from NATO and the Biden administration that on no account must Ukraine negotiate with Russia to end the war. Ukraine is not winning, but being destroyed. In August the Ukrainian military invaded Russia's Kursk oblast – mainly forests and small villages – and that force, comprised on the best fighting units Ukraine had left, is now slowly being massacred by the Russian forces. Meanwhile the Ukies weakened front line in the Donbas theatre is being overrun by Russian regiments.
Ukraine did manage to hit Russia’s 107th arsenal located at Toropets, west of Moscow, with a long range drone strike.
According to Simplicius who blogs on Substack:
It is a mostly Soviet arsenal which was updated in recent years to add new concrete bunkers to store weapons for the Western Military District. In 2018 and onward, it began to get a modern addition under the direction of Deputy Defense Minister Dmitry Bulgakov. Adding a major new section with modern concrete bunkers, he made high-flung claims that it was the safest in the world, could withstand nuclear strikes, and the standard tale. Unfortunately Bulgakov was one of the many corrupt parquet generals recently arrested for embezzling money, specifically by providing low-grade materials—in his case rations for the army—while pocketing the left-overs. The truth is that satellite photos had previously shown large amounts of ammunition sitting ‘in the open’ at the arsenal. (https://simplicius76.substack.com/)
And we should not believe the 'Big Bully Russia terrorising little Ukraine' narrative either. The following report is from https://www.cato.org/ on how Ukraine has been receiving double-digit millions of dollars from US since the trun of the century in spite of the Kiev regime waging a genocidal campaign against ethnic Russians living inside Ukraine's borders since 2014:
Since 2000, the US has provided double-digit millions of dollars in weapons and weapons training to Ukraine. According to data collected by the Security Assistance Monitor, prior to the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, the two largest increases in this aid occurred in 2002 (where the total value was over $67 million) and 2008 (where the total value was over $80 million). For the former, this was Ukraine’s fifth year collaborating with NATO and the development of the NATO–Ukraine Action Plan, which called for greater security cooperation. In 2008, security assistance increased after the Russian war with Georgia. Finally, following Russia’s invasion of Crimea, security assistance from the US to Ukraine increased to over $90 million in 2014, over $182 million in 2015, and then has remained above $200 million every year since. Yet, many of these weapons have seemingly disappeared into an abyss.
According to the 2021 Global Organized Crime Index, Ukraine has one of the largest illegally trafficked arms markets in Europe, especially when it comes to small arms and ammunition. About 300,000 small arms and light weapons were reported lost or stolen between 2013 and 2015. Of these, only slightly more than 13% are recovered, while the vast amount remains in circulation in the black market. This says nothing of major weapons, such as radar systems and Javelin missiles also sent to the country.
The repeated accusation that Russia “will not honour any deal” actually also applies to the West, as recently documented, for example, by the Minsk peace agreements. But western leaders have on multiple occasions reneged on their verbal and documented agreements that NATO would expand “not one inch eastward” upon German unification. See: https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email.
And there is no indication whatsoever that Russia is out to dominate the world as fans of World War Three naratives like to claim. It is hardly relevant to cite a 1977 document referring to the time of the Cold War. Those days are thankfully over, or would be if western leaders would only open their eyes and ears and actually listen to what Moscow is saying.
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