Amusingly for those of us on the civilised side of The Atlantic, these new results do not reflect the latest FBI bombshell which may impact the Clinton vote as it raises the trustworthiness issue again for the Democrats campaign. Polling was concluded on October 27th. Also the poll data is distorted by an 8-point sampling advantage for Democrats
Having a qualification in statistics (not degree level at the time but probably higher now, in this era of multiple choice questions)I sat down with our Boggart Blog / Daily Stirrer colleague Xavier, who has a MSc in Engineering and a BSc in Mathematics, and we did a bit of anlaysis of our own. But first, let's look at what the pollsters say about it:
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.So what happened? For months, since the UK General Election in 2015 in fact, we have been arguing that what mainstream media publish are not unbiased polls but goal-seeking reports. Research has shown that with very little tweaking of the way questions are phrased and how 'undecideds are handled polls can be 'weighted' to produce a result in line with whatever result is desired by the commissioning organisation. The easiest way to do this is by simply distorting the make - up of the sample pool.
Another trick used widely by organisations running polls on this presidential election also came to our attention during the UK election of 2015, the technique of restating the question about voting intention but excluding minor parties. In Britain when voters who initially said they intended to vote for anti - establishment libertarian party UKIP were given a straight choice, Conservative or Labour, it was anticipated most would go Conservative. In fact UKIP's polling at around 10 to 15 percent was largely due to disillusioned working class Labour voters deserting 'the people's party because they felt it had become elitists, a party of bureaucrats, academics and professionals and was out of touch with working class concerns. The fact that while polls showed the parties neck and neck, the Conservatives won the popular vote by seven per cent was attributed largely to this polling error. In the USA, the minor party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, polling jointly at around ten per cent pose a similar problem for polling firms. When voters are offered a four way choice Clinton's rapidly diminishing lead drops to within the margin of error. Take out the wildcards and the lead widens.
All this shows is that rather than Johnson taking votes from Trump and the Republicans while Stein takes somewhat less votes from Clinton and the Democrats, in fact both are taking votes from Hillary Clinton. We also found while studying the data that there is some truth in the claims that Stein is doing a lot better than published polls show because she is picking up the votes of Bernie Sanders supporters disgusted at the way the Democrat National Committee colluded with the Clinton campaign to steal the nomination from Sanders.
WikiLeaks have covered this and even published a handy guide 37-page poll-rigging guide on how to "include ethnic 'oversamples' as required" to manufacture the desired results.
With today's latest ABC / Washington Post poll, the real "smoking gun" of how polls are manipulated to manipulate votes is revealed as the pollsters admit that the collapse of the apparent Clinton lead is "not mainly about people shifting in their voting intention" but about how their sample pool was constructed.
"Changes in the poll’s latest four nights (due to a public outcry from people in online news sites who understand something of how polls work) compared with the previous four are not mainly about people shifting in their candidate preference, but about changes in who’s intending to vote." Those saying they were not likely to vote were being asked who they would vote for if they HAD to vote. Thus a (relatively) large number of Blacks and Hispanics who said they did not plan to vote and were unlikely to change their minds, were nudged to declare a preference for the Democrat candidate.So that's one you manufacture incredible results.
So why would allegedly respectable organisations like ABC / Wapo claim that the 10-point swing (in less than a week) was driven by changes in "who's intending to vote," but their own data shows just a 2-point swing in people who said they were "certain to vote" on 23 October, when the poll reflected a 12-point Hillary lead, and 27 October when the lead had collapsed to just 2 points. Are we really expected to believe that a 2-point swing in voter intentions somehow translated to a 10-point swing in the poll result? Something tells us it had a little more to do with excluding ethnic 'oversamples' after being caught cheating for the benefit of their favoured candidate."
So, now that ABC / Wapo have effectively declared their own poll utterly useless, the question is what were their motivations for skewing their polling data? Consider these points:
- Trump is simply experiencing a huge surge in momentum...seems odd to have this kind of surge on minimal news (remember the poll was taken prior to the recent FBI disclosures).
- ABC / Wapo pollsters got a slap on the wrist from the Hillary campaign for getting a bit overzealous on their manufactured 12-point "lead" which could have resulted in lower voter turnout for Hillary as supporters decided their vote was not needed.
- >ABC / Wapo reviewed early voting stats and realized their polls were in no way reflective of reality and decided they'd rather not lose ALL credibility (though may be too late for that).
The Left In Meltdown
As the UK Labour Party crumbles into complete disarray with it’s leader, the sixty – eight year old perpetual student protestor Jeremy Corbyn proving a more divisive figure than any of his predecessors, as he sacrifices more and more votes on the altar of fashionable causes, and the EU, natural successor to Hitler’s European unification project falls apart in the face of resurgent cultural nationalism, it is quite satisfying to see ...
America Is Lost: Rigged election, Rigged Media, Rigged Candidate says Assange
To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of Julian Assange's death were greatly exaggerated. After his web feed was cut by staff at the Ecuadorian Embassy earlier this week Assange's usual stream of tweets, leaks and posts was stilled. The web, being the web, went mad with conspiracy theories but Wikileaks themselves did not comment on the wilder speculation. Well Julian is back on Hillary's case, and this time it's more personal than ever.
Can Americans Overthrow The Evil That Rules Them?
The anti - establishment, anti - globalisation mood that manifested itself in the Brexit vote is sweeping across Europe, the cosy government - corporate cartel is desperately trying to control the narrative, but against the combined strength of millions of new media commentators all challenging the official; narrative, the dark forces of globalism are on the back foot.
Is Bilderberg A Sinister Group That Runs The World Or Just A Tea Party For Rich And Powerful People
Are the Bilderberg Group meeting, this weekend in Dresden, Germany, really The Shadow Government (the New World Order, The Illuminati,) that rules the world?
The Oligarchy Is Tottering - Trump Tramples The Neocons' "False Song Of Globalism"
Donald Trump scares the global establishment as do the anti Federalisation parties in the EU. We take a long and detailed look at why, and exactly what the globalist agenda would have meant for freedom and democracy had people not wonken up and opposed it in vast numbers. Kudos to the Islamic Jihad too, medievalist religious nuts they may be, but they resisted American attempt to impose western consumer culture on them.
Turkey Blames Kurds, Assad For Terrorist Attack, Vows Swift Response
Yesterday came the first terrorist attack on Turkish soil. As this blog predicted President Erdogan of Turkey is blaming the Kurds and President Assad of Syria for yesterday's bomb blast in the Turkish capital which killed and injured many people.It was predictable would the attack would be blamed on Assad and the Kurds, thus giving the nutter Erdogan an excuse to intensify his actions against Assad and the Kurds
If You Look At How Fast Global Trade Is Unravelling, You'll Get Dizzy
Governments constantly make positive noises about the health of their economies although most people who are in work have felt no improvement on the position they were in after the crash of 2008. Wagest are stangnant, employment has reduced somewhat (see below) and while the banks are printing money and the super rich are widening the gap between themselves and ordinary people faster than ever, the real situation is frightening.
The New World order Pope Wants You To Pray For One World Religion
The Marxist, globalist, Soros apparatchik currently posing as head of the Catholic faith wants to scrap the Catholic Church. He didn't say that in so many words but he has called on Catholics to pray for the creation of a world religion (because love and peace) which would embrace
Democracy Murdered In France
I'm hearing very disturbing news from the French regional elections, predicting that the Front National, comfortable winners in last week's first round of regional elections, hasve been routed in all regions. For that to happen, and to happen through a massive increase in turnout, suggests electoral fraud on a hughe scale. Or has France joined Britain in adopting the Islamic version of democracy, which is one man one vote, one Imam one thousand votes.
Who Runs America, The White House Or The Shadow Government?
Reports of President Barack Obama’s meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit over the weekend do not look right in the context of yet another blitz of provocative rhetoric from The Pentagon and the Department of Defence towards Moscow. In view of the USA's constant push towards all out war with Russia, one has to ask who is in control: Obama or the generals?
Trump catches attention of CFR, Bilderberg, Trilateral
Donald Trump is portrayed as a clown by mainstream media and his combover is the silliest I have ever seen. Still, he's a billionaire so I don't suppose he gives a flying fuck what The Daily Stirrer thinks of him. Not that we think he is all bad, anyone who attacks Obama's global Naziism trade deals, TTIP and TPP mush have some good points.
Prepare For The Worst Case Scenario
An article on the cashless society our political and corporate overlords are pushing for proposes that as far as privacy and individual liberty are concerned, what is being planned right now in the political capitals and financial centres of the world is the worst case scenario. An all digital financial system would mean the end of privacy, nothing you bought or traded would be your own business any more ...
How Mainstream Media And The Major Political Parties Are Making Sure Voters Do not Hear The Voices Of Politics' Most Powerful Critics
As the General Election campaign starts to heat up, we try to shift focus away from the squabbling between Conservative and Labour about who can make the most promises they have no intention of keeping and to the real issues concerning jobs, social breakdown , mass immigration, and loss of national sovereignty.
US Presidents Of The Past warned Against Secret, Shadow Government.
By now it should be obvious that peacemaker, joybringer and putative aquatic pedestrian Barack Hussein Obama was never really in charge of the US Government. Whatever Obama said would happen, all the American government's policies ensured the opposit would happen. The embedded article thows some light on how the US government really works
The American Political System Is "Not A Democracy Or Constitutional Republic" - Thiel
The state of democracy in the USA has become a hot topic of conversation in American business circles in recent years. While President Barack Hussein Obama, not so much a man as an ego on long skinny legs, has increasingly been inclined to rule by executive order in the manner of a despot or tyrant, even Obama's fiercest critics have to admit the American electoral system seems increasingly capable of delivering only political paralysis ...
U.S. versus Russia War: Top Russian Politics Scolar Stephen Cohen Tells The Truth
We have been blogging for four years about the US drive for war, provocation of Russia in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and elsewhere made it obvious. But I'm just a news junkie with a strong sense of curiosity and have wondered why the US seems set on this course. Good to see experts like Stephen Cohen, a prominent expert on, Russia are coming onside.
Another Reason To Get Out Of EU. UKIP MEP Hits Out At Fishing Policy That Penalises British Fishing Crews
As the General Election campaign starts to heat up, we try to shift focus away from the squabbling between Conservative and Labour about who can make the most promises they have no intention of keeping and to the real issues concerning jobs, social breakdown , mass immigration, and an often overlooked area in which our EU membership has perhaps done more damage than any other, the fishing industry.
Multi-Cultural England: Are You Feeling The Progressive Diversity.
As racial and sectarian tension increase on the streets of Britain while politicians gear up for the election campaign, we take a look at the state of Britain today, Imigrant child abuse gangs, Clerics of alient faiths dictating moral strictures, and everywhere we look, foreigners being given provieged status. Is it any wonder the voters are angry?
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: Oil Collapse Is All About Obama's Proxy War With Russia.
While we are distracted with sex scandals at home and terrorists rampaging through the middle east and Africa, the US / EU / NATO confrontation with Russia / China / Iran is getting into a very dangerous state. While the Chinese led move to dump the US dollar as global reserve currency is causing economic chaos, the USA attempts to provoke armed conflict with Russia are getting more reckless and desperate.
Shakespeare's Proud Loner and The Wisdom Of Crowds
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