Thursday, December 29, 2022

The Real War Is About Energy, Not Territory


In the ake of attacks on the on the Stream pipelines, that effectively halted the flow of natural gas which German industry, commerce, agriculture and society relies on, and the terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken gloated that the attacks were a “tremendous opportunity” to weaken Moscow.. It quickly emerged that the United States CIA and UK's MI5 state security agencies, if not actually involved in the planning and execution of the attacks, at least knew of the plans in advance (and they were planned in advance, how else could Ukraine's government have issued a postage stamp showing the brige burning only a day after the attck took place?)

 And shortly after news of the Nord Stream sabotage broke on mainstream media, gas supply companies in the USA were offering to supply Europe with shipments of Liquid Natural Gas carried by supertanker to be sold to European nations at vastly inflated prices.

The Nord Stream pipelines are operated by company that is majority owned by Russia’s state gas giant Gazprom. Authorities in Norway and Denmark have refused to allow that company access to the pipelines for the purpose of inspecting the damage done to its own pipelines. That is to say, NATO member states have prevented the Switzerland-based company Nord Stream AG from conducting an investigation into the attacks on its property.

But just as sanctions failed to bring the Russian economy to its knees as US and NATO officials predicted they would, Secretary of State Blinken's “tremendous opportunity” has not had any noticable effect on Russian economic activity as the USA's proxy war on Russia shifts from shooting and bombing to the weaponisation of energy, currency, food and fertilizser.

When santions were imposed poreventing EU vand NATO member states from buying Russia's gas and oil, the Russiansjust shugged and set about finding other customers in Asia, Africa and south America to by their gas and oil. The CPC pipeline out of the Caspian has been monitored from orbit a very long time. The Volga river complex out of the northern Caspian region ditto. In total this flow is 4% of global supply, and much of it is past Volgograd (formerly Stalingrad) northward towards Moscow for consumption and export.

Volgograd is less than 100 miles from the eastern border of Donbas and is the chokepoint for nearly 3% of global supply. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) from Russia's Caspian gas fields to the Black Sea travels through Russia to a Russian Black Sea port.

Kashagan is the notorious oil field in that region and its failures have been monitored from orbit and led to its nickname from the participating companies -- CashIsGone. A very difficult production locale for oil, but those obstacles have been overcome and it is now finally flowing. The lesser known field is Karachaganak, it is mostly gas condensate and GAZPROM is the major player. This dictates realities of the recent economic meetings that warranted Putin's presence.

It will probably come as a shock to political leaders in Washington D C, London and Euopean capitals and financial centres but wo.rld trade is not confined to North America and Europe. Turkmenistan (how many people know where that is, I have to admit I could not descripe its exact position,) is bubbling with gas. Kazahkstan has significant oil. That region in total, with bordering countries, has abundant and largely unexploited hydrocarbon reserves. 

Perhaps most amusing, ironic and scanitly reported in mainstream media aspect of this fiasco of failed sanctions, Iran has been running tankers south to north across the Caspian carrying their sanctioned oil to blend with Russia's heading north for export via The Black Sea. Turkey and Syria to Europe and America. All those sanctions imposed by successive US administrations in their efforts to control the world never really had a hope of working.

As for vast Ukraine gas totals, the Holy Bible of oil and gas is published each June by BP. It is called The World Statistical Report and is downloadable in Excel form. It's a big ducument and profiles production of oil and gas country by country, as well as consumption.

BP assigns Ukraine about 1 Trillion cubic meters of reserves. Most of that is offshore south. In the world of gas and oil, one sees numbers with the T word or B word for trillions and billions.There's a lot of gas in the world which is why the green loons and ecowankers stopped campaining on the basis that hydrocarbons are running out and started instead to demonise Carbon Dioxide, a trace atmospheric gas that is absolutely essential to the continuation of carbon based lifeforms, (which covers absolutely every living thing,) on our planet

Russia is estimated to have 37 trillion, and their territory total provides estimates of "undiscovered reserves" far beyond that 37 number. Qatar's fields offshore estimate at 25. Iran at 32. Saying Ukraine is the 2nd largest in Europe is noting a big fish in a tiny pond. Norway is #1 at 1.4 Trillion. Countries with more? Australia, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Iraq, UAE, US (a 12 T gas dwarf) and Canada.

Ukraine has 1/37th of GAZPROM's total, with more likely to be found. The theory that control of gas fields  prompted Russia's invasion of Ukraine does not make any sense at all.

However this publication has consistently taken the view that the current kerfuffle in Ukraine was engineered by the USA and NATO just as the previous trouble in 2013 / 14 and the ethnic cleansing campaign waged on Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine were. And as we reported last month and earlier this month when we look at the Nord Stream sabotage and the Kerch Bridge terrorist attack the evidence stacks up against the US Deep State with help from their FUKUS axis and NATO partners, they have the means, plenty of opportunity but what about motive?

The US fossil fuel industry has made a killing off of the proxy war in Ukraine. Western sanctions on Russia in response to its February 24, 2022 invasion of its neighbor have propelled the United States into becoming the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG). Much of that LNG has gone to Europe to make up for the drastic decline in Russian exports.

NATO member Norway has also greatly benefited. It was already the largest oil and gas producer in Europe, even before inaugurating the Baltic Pipe, just one day after Nord Stream was sabotaged. The fact that an attack on Nord Stream was being planned was known in advance. By whom? None other than the CIA. The notorious US spy agency warned Germany weeks before the explosions.

It is not just the North American energy industry that stands to heavily profit from the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines. Ukraine benefits as well. By using Nord Stream to send Germany natural gas through the Baltic Sea, Russia could cut out the intermediary of Ukraine, which was making billions of dollars in transit fees.

While Western governments have pinned the blame on Russia, without offering a shred of proof, it makes no strategic sense that Moscow would sabotage its own pipelines, after investing billions of dollars in the project. Russia has even floated the possibility of investing more money to repair the pipelines. This would be a very strange move after bombing your own energy infrastructure.

Yet the German government publicly rejected Russia’s offer to repair the pipelines. A spokesperson said Berlin would not accept Russian gas via Nord Stream 2, even if it is fixed, a position which smells suspiciously like the stink of self interests that emanated from the US / UK ordering their puppet Bellendskyyyyy to refuse talks with Russia on a peace deal brokered by Turkey's President Erdogan back in April 2022.




The United States earns more than $100 million per ship of LNG and both Germany and France say “gas” is too expensive

The U.S. is raking in cash from exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG).

“Some countries, including friendly countries, sometimes have astronomical gas prices.” On October 5 local time, German Vice Chancellor and Economy Minister Jer Habeck told German media Neue Osnbruck newspaper that he hoped the EU level would be able to negotiate with these gas-exporting friendly countries.

On October 6 local time, French President Emmanuel Macron also publicly urged the United States and Norway to lower the price they pay for natural gas. “It’s great that you’re providing us with energy and gas, but making us pay four times as much can’t go on.” Mr Macron charged that this was not the true meaning of friendship.

Due to geopolitical conflicts and other factors, Russia has made big reductions in pipeline gas deliveries to Europe, only the pipelines through Ukraine and Turkey are still exporting gas to Europe while the Caspian pipeline is pumping more gas than ever via Iran to buyers in Asia.In 2021, the EU imported 155 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, accounting for 45 percent of total imports.In the first week of October 2022, Russian gas deliveries to Europe were down about 82% from comparable levels the European Gas Pipeline Network Consortium reported. Russian gas exports to Europe fell 49% in the first three quarters of this year, according to S&P Global. While wartime propaganda continues to insist everything is hunky - dory in Europe and Ukraine is winning the war one does not need to have 20 / 20 vision to see neither of these propositions is true.

European countries have snapped up spot LNG supplies from the U.S. to Qatar over the past few months as the continent has to fill underground gas storage for the winter. In June, the European Union imported more U.S. LNG than piped gas from Russia for the first time, according to the International Energy Agency. Asa U.S. gas costs around 6 times as much as Russian gas this is crippling for European businesses and domestic consumers.

Supply being exceeded by demand in the global gas market has forced export prices for LNG. U.S. LNG exports averaged $12.76 per thousand cubic feet in July, up 76.5% from a year earlier.In the first seven months of this year, U.S. LNG exports totaled 65.6 billion cubic meters, up 14.3% from a year earlier, according to monthly data released by the U.S. Energy Department. Total exports were about $25.5 billion, up about 96% from the same period last year. 

Europe has its own gas resources of course, but foolish politicians have been bullied by the noisy but unrepresentative green lobby to cap wells in the North Sea, ~Irish Sea and Atlantic and instead flush vasah amounts of taxpayers money down the toilet that is net zero policy by investing in intermittent and unreliable wind and solar sources for electricity generation. Dutch TTF futures, the European gas benchmark, have been rising since 2021, reaching record settlements in March and August this year. On Aug. 26 local time, the benchmark settled at 339.2 euros per megawatt-hour, or about 23.5 yuan per cubic meter which is vastly cheaper than gas imported by tanker from The Middle East or USA. however incresed production of gas fromBritish wells in The North Sea and the recommissioning of wells abandoned as Europe sought to shun 'fossil fuels' is probably too little too late to avert a crisis this winter.

Futures prices and spot prices vary of course, and can be extremely volatiole in the prevailing circumstances but the basic trcend is consistent. When LNG cargoes are shipped from the United States to Europe, the value of LNG immediately increases several times. Energy expert Laurent Sacrine told Business Insider that companies pay about $60 million to fill a ship with LNG from the U.S. and sell it in Europe for $275 million, a 358% increase.

LNG capacity is tight, tankers capable of carrying it are highly specialised and in view of increased demand are in short supply. Ship rents are understandably rising. On Oct. 9, a market source told Jiemian News that the current rental rate for a three-fuel diesel engine (TFDE) type of LNG carrier is over $300,000 per day.But even with the cost of chartering carriers, U.S. LNG exports to Europe are still very profitable. According to Business Insider, American companies can earn more than $100 million for each LNG ship they sell to Europe. 

Data Source:

This is what the war in Ukraine is really about, the NATO (i.e. The USA has wanted to undermine and break up the Russaian Federation for many years, in order to get its hands on Russia's natural resources and the lucrative business of exporting tjose materials. Using the clown bellendskyyyyy and the neo - Nazi nutters in Kiev as cover they now have a proxy war, Ukraine's crazy leaders are insane enough to fight to the last man (literally) so long as the western power keep supplying weapons and ammunition. Washington does not care how many Ukrainians die or that Russia's missiles are reducing Ukraine to a wasteland.




The question now is how far will America's Biden adninistration go in their efforts to provoke Russia into attacking a NATO nation and thus triggering all out war. RELATED:

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