Thursday, March 31, 2022

Climate Change Research Paper Censored by The British Hydrological Society For Telling The Truth

 

The Daily Sceptic today published an article by retired research scientist James Dent, whose specialist field was hydrology and meteorology. Mr. Dent was involved in research projects aiemd at understanding the factors influencing climate, and their effects on environments, in many parts of the world. He was especially involved in studying the patters leading up to floods and droughts. For a time, he was the World Meteorology Organisation Chief Technical Advisor to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Bangladesh, a low lying nation especially prone to flooding as it is situated in the Ganges / Bramahputra delta region. 

The article was initially published in the British Hydrological Society journal Circulation, but was withdrawn almost immediately without a satisfactory explanation.

This excerpt however gives a taster of the problem Dent encountered by positing theories that, while backed by solid research materia, differ from the globalist narrative that climate change, driven by Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activity poses an existential threat to civilisation.

Like the predictions of the progress of Covid, we need to ask what the limitations are to modelling. Too easily the model output is given the status of truth, and quickly becomes unchallengeable. Climate change predictions have been commonplace for at least 25 years, but I recently read an agricultural journalist state that in the future, farmers will have to cope with hotter, drier summers, and warmer, wetter winters, and there will be more extreme events. The message has remained the same, so have we not yet reached the predicted future?

It becomes easy to summarise complicated ideas into sound bites.

Over the last 15 years, I have resigned from two national institutions which have incorporated climate change hypotheses into rigid policy statements. This situation could so easily escalate to the dystopian future depicted in the recently published novel The Denial by Ross Clark.

Like all the ramifications and issues relating to Covid, the danger comes when theoretical projections provide the basis of legislation, or define the stance of particular organisations, while the media presentations rely on throw-away lines and virtue-signalling in reporting.

I can see similar dangers arising from so-called ‘environmental’ policies, such as ceasing river dredging and weed clearance, ‘rewilding’ and abandoning land and road drainage maintenance. Ultimately we could find ourselves regressing to medieval conditions, where roads and marshy areas become impassable in the winter months.

Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University and President (for what it's worth,) of British Hydrological Society (BHS), explained that the paper had been withdrwn because it represented “a personal view from one of our membership that climate change was not a real phenomenon”.  She went on to say: “We do not think it is appropriate to provide them with a forum under the BHS logo.”

Fowler went on tyo say that the “climate sceptic” viewpoint  did not represent good scholarship in science and we “will be reviewing our governance procedures to make sure that members voices can still be heard, but through the lens of good science”. 

By 'good science' she means mathematical modelling of course. In the thirty years or so since the climate scare was launched ALL the evidence that changes in our climate are caused solely by Carbon Dioxide emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activity has been obtained from mathematical modelling rather than good science, i.e. from data gethered by researchers observing and recording conditions in the real world and disovering consistent patters of cause and effect that can be repeatedly demonstrated.

As a wise old computer guy who had worked with Alan Turing in the very early days told me and other young colleagues when I was a traineee programmer / operator back in the early 1970s, "If you torture data enough it will eventually give the answers you want."

And that is how the science of mathematical modelling works.

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When Boris Johnson revealed the UK Government plans for achieving 'net zero' carbon emissions by 2050 it emerged the much teased clean, green replacement for gas boilers as our main source of domestic heating is to be heat pumps. The Daily Stirrer counters the pseudo-scientific bollocks and reveals this 'new technology has been around for a hundred years.

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When Boris Johnson revealed the UK Government plans for achieving 'net zero' carbon emissions by 2050 it emerged the much teased clean, green replacement for gas boilers as our main source of domestic heating is to be heat pumps. The Daily Stirrer counters the pseudo-scientific bollocks and reveals this 'new technology has been around for a hundred years.

Governments' obsession with climate pseudoscience over economically and social viable solutions is leading to disaster
The government's current obsession with pursuing the target of net zero carbon emissions in order to claim the UK leads the world in green wankery is more to do with virtue signalling that governing, but with the complicity of mainstream media, particularly The BBC, climate scaremongering is providing a convenient diversion from this governments abject failure to address and of the very real economic and social problems facing us.

Globalist Elites Now Pushing For Lockdowns Save You From Climate Change


Elite globalists are now proposing that lockdowns be imposed to protect us punters from climate change. Did we ask for this? Did we vote for this?

We need a referendum on net zero to save Britain from the green blob

from The Daily Telegraph
As with membership of the EU, the political elite is imposing a revolution on the public without consent. Does the blob never learn? Voters don’t like being treated like naughty children

Green Dreams Menu
It may be driven by virtue signalling or self hatred but the urge to destroy civilisation in order to save the planet and the ideological agenda that drive the gree movement are too far removed from the realities of life to ever achieve their aims.

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Gas supplies to Europe could be halted in a matter of DAYS

byEthan Huff, News Target 29 March 2022

Gas supplies to Europe could be halted in a matter of DAYS The fuel crisis across the pond is about to get a whole lot worse, thanks to NATO’s sanctions against Russia. The flow of natural gas and other critical fossil fuels into Europe could stop entirely in a matter of days because fake U.S. “President” Joe Biden and his deep state allies have decided that Russia is no longer allowed to use dollars or euros to conduct business. With no way to receive payment for fuel, in other words, Russia will have no choice but to turn off the pipelines, leaving Europeans cold and in the dark. At the recent G7 summit in Brussels, Biden read talking points from his script claiming that NATO is “more united than ever” against Russia, and also against everyone around the world who relies on Russia for imported goods such as fossil fuel. Nobody in NATO seems willing to have a diplomatic discussion with Russian President Vladimir Putin other than France’s Emmanuel Macron, so the chances of there being a de-escalation of the situation in the interest of the general public are slim. “We shouldn’t escalate with words or actions,” Macron declared. Biden, on the other hand, does not care who gets caught in the fray of the situation. Since he and his crime-ridden family are being exposed by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Biden is willing to make the entire world pay with inflation, shortages, and all of the misery that comes with his failed policies.Continue reading >>>, 29 March 2022

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Leaked Documents suggest Moderna created its Coronavirus Vaccine BEFORE Covid-19 was known to exist

further evidence suggests Moderna actually made SARS-CoV-2 in a Lab 

from The Daily Expose, 29 March 2022

A confidentiality agreement shows potential coronavirus vaccine candidates were transferred from Moderna to the University of North Carolina in 2019, nineteen days prior to the emergence of the alleged Covid-19 causing virus in Wuhan, China.

And now further evidence suggests the American pharmaceutical and biotechnology company that has made billions through the sale of said experimental injection, is actually responsible for creating the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

The confidentially agreement which can be viewed here states that providers ‘Moderna’ alongside the ‘National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases’ (NIAID) agreed to tranfer ‘mRNA coronavirus vaccine candidates’ developed and jointly-owned by NIAID and Moderna to recipients ‘The Universisty of North Carolina at Chapel Hill’ on the 12th December 2019.

Found on page 105 of the agreement

The material transfer agreement was signed the December 12th 2019 by Ralph Baric, PhD, at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and then signed by Jacqueline Quay, Director of Licensing and Innovation Support at the University of North Carolina on December 16th 2019.

Recipient signatories found on page 107

The agreement was also signed by two representatives of the NIAID, one of whom was Amy F. Petrik PhD, a technology transfer specialist who signed the agreement on December 12th 2019 at 8:05 am. The other signatory was Barney Graham MD PhD, an investigator for the NIAID, however this signature was not dated. ... Continue reading >>>

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Monday, March 28, 2022

Joe Biden's Son Helped Secure $$$millions In Gov't For US contractor In Ukraine Specializing In Pathogen Research.

The Russian government held a press conference on Thursday (24 March) claiming that Hunter Biden helped finance a US military 'bioweapons' research program in Ukraine according to a report in The Daily Mail. The Biden Administration in the USA immediately branded the allegations a brazen propaganda ploy to justify president Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and sow discord in the US. 

However The Daily Mail claimed emails and correspondence obtained by american investigators from Hunter's abandoned laptop show the claims may well be true. 

Moscow’s claim that Hunter Biden helped finance a US military 'bioweapons' research program in Ukraine is at least partially true, according to new emails obtained exclusively by DailyMail.com.

The commander of the Russian Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Protection Forces, claimed there was a 'scheme of interaction between US government agencies and Ukrainian biological objects' and pointed to the 'financing of such activities by structures close to the current US leadership, in particular the investment fund Rosemont Seneca, which is headed by Hunter Biden.'

Intelligence experts say the Russian military leader's allegations were a brazen propaganda ploy to justify president Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and sow discord in the US.

But emails from Hunter's abandoned laptop show he helped secure millions of dollars of funding for Metabiota, a Department of Defense contractor specializing in research on pandemic-causing diseases that could be used as bioweapons.

He also introduced Metabiota to an allegedly corrupt Ukrainian gas firm, Burisma, for a 'science project' involving high biosecurity level labs in Ukraine.

And although Metabiota is ostensibly a medical data company, its vice president emailed Hunter in 2014 describing how they could 'assert Ukraine's cultural and economic independence from Russia' – an unusual goal for a biotech firm. ... Continue reading >>>

 

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Dumbphone Sales Soaring As Users Reject "Intrusive" Smartphones

 If we're honest there isn't much that is really smart about smartphones other than that they are smarter than most of the people who use and subsequently become addicted to them. When it is commonly known that national government intelligence agencies are filling up petabytes of hard disk space with recordings  of private conversations and stored text messages, photos, videos and selfies of people's genitals, and tracking their ordinary citizens who, in the cause of spreading 'woke' values embraced by Californian bllionaire - psychopaths, have been re - evaluated as a greater terrorist threat than actual foreign terrorists, one has to wonder if it is the phones that are smart or the people addicted o them who are incredibly dumb.

What I'm saying is that in an era of total surveillance when privacy is at a premium it is, is it not, unwise to lay out a small fortune in order to possess (you never actually own them in the truest sense,) a more sophisticated gadget for spying on you than any of your friends. I have to say here I have a smartphone myself, an entry level Nokia One plus, but being a retired computer and networks specialist I have 'tweaked' it somewhat, thus (intentionally) disabling most of its so called smarts.

 The calculator and stop watch feature get used, otherwise the only apps that remain on it are the ones essential to running its basic functions of making and receiving phone calls and texts. Beyond that there is only a sat - nav app that warns me when a speed camera or cop car is nearby. But I have a few decades experience of tweaking computer systems behind me - and if my son and daughter had not bought me the phone a year ago I might still have been using the ancient Nokia bought around 2005.

I'm not alone in resenting the intrusiveness of smartphones, some people have had enough of the constant interruptions, reminders, nudges and adverts relating to things discussed in private conversations and are throwing their smart phones into the trash and replacing them with "dumbphones" instead.

An example is seventeen-year-old Robin West, who according to the BBC is an anomaly among her peers: "she doesn't have a smartphone." Instead of scrolling through apps like TikTok and Instagram all day, she uses a so-called "dumbphone".

People who had a cell phone in the late 1990s (and I was an early adopter, I've had one since the 1980s, they were always annoying but for professional reasons having one was essential,) are all too familiar with these; for everyone else these are basic handsets, or feature phones, with very limited functionality compared to say an iPhone. For the most part, you can typically only make and receive calls and SMS text messages. And, if you are lucky, listen to radio and take very basic photos, but definitely not connect to the internet or apps.

Robin decided to ditch her former smartphone two years ago. While looking for a replacement handset in a second-hand shop she was lured by the low price of a "brick phone". Her current handset, from French firm MobiWire, cost her just £8. And because it has no smartphone functionality there is no monthly contract or data bill to eat up the cash.

Two phones pictured in 2005, two years before Apple released its first iPhone, and 11 years before TikTok

"I didn't notice until I bought a brick phone how much the smartphone had taken over my life," she says. "I had a lot of social media apps on it, and I didn't get as much done as I was always on my phone."

The Londoner adds that she doesn't think she'll ever buy another smartphone. "I'm happy with my brick - I don't think it limits me. I'm definitely more proactive."

According to BBC, dumbphones are enjoying a revival. Google searches for them jumped by 89% between 2018 and 2021, according to a report by software firm SEMrush. And while sales figures are hard to come by, one report said that global purchases of dumbphones were due to hit one billion units last year, up from 400 million in 2019. This compares to worldwide sales of 1.4 billion smart phones last year, following a 12.5% decline in 2020.

Meanwhile, a 2021 study by accountancy group Deloitte said that one in 10 mobile phone users in the UK had a dumbphone.

It seems there is still hope for humanity. 

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Sunday, March 27, 2022

Should Auld Aquaintance Be Remembered? For The Sake Of The Future It Should

 by Jimmy McJimmy
27 March 2022

Every day for the past month we have been fed a stream of propaganda narratives about Vlad (Dr. Evil) Putin and the brutal Russians bullying brave little Ukraine and unfortunately a significant proporation of citizens (maybe a majority,) of citizens in the western nations have fallen for it and are quite willing to believe that Russia is the perpetual bad guy, the existential threat to European civilisation.

People have such short memories.

In 2011 NATO, or to be exact The USA, UK and France bombed a path to Tripoli to help its proxy forces of tribalistic ragheads on the ground oust Colonel Gaddafi. Tens of thousands lost their lives and much of Libya’s social fabric and infrastructure lay in ruins. In the space of a few weeks Libya was transformed from Africa's most prosperous and socially advanced nation to a failed state with three separate groups claiming to the legiimate government and waging a tripartate civil war. That situation persists today. 

The 2016 article appearing in Foreign Policy Journal ‘Hillary Emails Reveal True Motive for Libyan Intervention’ exposed why Libya was targeted.

Gaddafi was murdered and his plans to assert African independence and undermine Western hegemony on that continent were rendered obsolete. The NATO action was justified by claims that Gaddafi was a brutal tyrant whose oppressive regime routinely brutalised the Libyan people. In fact Gaddafi was hugely popular among his people, it was the ruling elites of the west that did not like him because he was an obstacle to their plans for the economic colonisation of Africa.

In 2013 a Daily Telegraph article “US and Europe in major airlift of arms to Syrian rebels through Zagreb” reported that 3,000 tons of weapons had been sent in 75 planeloads from Zagreb airport in Croatia to rebels. In the same year Croatia was admitted to the European Union.

Also that year The New York Times ran the article “Arms Airlift to Syria Rebels Expands with CIA Aid”, stating that Arab governments and Turkey had sharply increased their military aid to Syria’s opposition fighters. This aid included more than 160 military cargo flights.

In his book The Dirty War on Syria, Tim Anderson describes how the West and its allies were instrumental in organising and then fuelling that conflict. Western politicians, led by US President Barack Obama made speeches and wrote editorials proclaiming that Syria's brutal dictator Bashar Al Assad must be ousted so that 'democracy and western values' could be spread to Syria.

Once again NATO and EU politicians took up the cry that Assad was a bully and a brute whose regime kept Syrians in a state of terror. Barack Obama (mouth almighty,) said that ousting Assad was his number one priority and spoke of direct military intervention by NATO to oust the Assad regime. Then Vladimir Putin told Obama and NATO that Russia would respond to help their ally. And that mad the western alliance reert to a policy of funding and arming batallions of undisciplines raghead terrorists who did unspeakable thing to Syrians in the areas they controlled. Christian and Jewish Syrians and the Yazidi and Druze minorities (whose offence was not being non - Muslims but simply being the wrong kind of Muslims,) and particularly the women of those minorities.

Over the last two decades, politicians and the media have been manipulating popular sentiment to get an increasingly war-fatigued Western public to support ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, under the notion of ‘protecting civilians’ or a ‘war on terror’.

The technique is always the same, a narrative is built around a claimed need to protect minorities, defend human rights of gays, transexuals and (but not so much these days,) biological women, removing tyrants from power, speading 'western values or protecting human life, in order to justify military attacks, resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of civilian lives and the displacement of many more.

A memo from the US Secretary of Defense to NATO Secretary General Wesley Clark leaked by Clark after his retirement revealed plans to “attack and destroy the governments in seven countries in five years,” starting with Iraq and moving on to “Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Iran”. Clark argued this strategy is fundamentally about control of the region’s vast oil and gas resources.

Part of the battle for the public’s hearts and minds is the task of convincing people to regard these wars and conflicts as a disconnected array of events, not the planned machinations of the shadowy cabal of business leaders, politicians, academics and financiers who openly admit their aim is to replace national democracies with a totalitarian global government. For the last decade, the ongoing narrative about Russian aggression has been part of the strategy although commentators who do not subscribe to the global governance project recognise China as the biggest threat to the established world order.

But let's stop pretending the western governments are innoocents. Just what do we imagine MI6 (Military Intelligence, Section 6) part of SIS (Secret Intelligence Service) do? Develop novel knitting patterns? Similarly, is Porton Down the centre for macramé excellence?

No, MI6 is devoted to covert operations against foreign nations. Porton Down to a variety of things including chemical and biological warfare.

In 2018 an attack carried out with a nerve agent in the quiet English town of Salisbury, allegedly by Russian agents rendered former Russian secret agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter critically ill.  The alleged Kremlin sanctioned murder of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy who while spying for his homeland on Britain was also passing Russian secrets to MI5, the governments “It’s the Russians” narrative has started to look more motheaten than a one armed piano player's dinner jacket.

Not only was Skripal a double agent, since being released from prison in 2010 as part of a spy swap with the USA, the former spy has been involved in commercial espionage and was named as a person of interests in the Democrats Dodgy Dossier compiled in an effort to smear Trump in the 2016 US presidential election. People like him tend to have a lot of enemies (including, possibly, President Trump – how bizarre the loony left have not yet tried to implicate him in the attack.)

There is something rather strange about the desperate bid to blame Russia, (apart from the fact that the media kerfuffle has kept two major stories off the front pages throughout this month;), it ignores a historic event that took place last November, also largely ignored at the time by most of the world’s media. Had the Salisbury attack not brought chemical weapons to the top of the news it might have remained ignored. In a ceremony at the headquarters of the world body responsible for the elimination of chemical weapons in The Hague, a plaque was unveiled to commemorate the destruction of the last of Russia’s stockpiles of chemical weapons.

Does anyone else find it strange that a very obvious, but convoluted chemical attack was conducted on an ‘individual of concern’ in Salisbury, the British home of chemical warfare, when an old fashioned IRA type car bomb, or an old fashioned Russian kidnapping and subsequent disappearance would have eliminated the target without all the media attention?

Similarly, former Russian spy Yuri Litvinenko was subject to a ‘sophisticated’ dose of nuclear poison, administered from a unique umbrella that was never found. Employing a drug reliant and desperate street thug with a knife would have been a far more effective and anonymous means of elimination.

Are we really expected to believe that MI6 (or whoever) is a well oiled, efficient espionage unit that never resorts to underhand tactics, whilst Russia is a bumbling bunch of fools who employ tactics straight from the school of James Bond fantasy?

Sorry, but I’m not that gullible. At deep state level The Russians are bastards. At deep state level so are we, and the Americans, French, Germans, Italians etc. etc. 


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News Roundup - 25 March 2022

 

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Ukraine (WW3 lite): The Nazis Have Stolen The Good Guys' White Hats

We Boggart Bloggers have said it many times in the past few weeks, and before that for several years. Many others in alt_media have said it too: The ultimate target of the US / NATO production titled The Superheroes Save Ukraine, currently playing to paced houses is about regime change in Russia, Ukraine is just a pawn in the game, an immature and unstable nation that just happened to be in the right place at the wrong time for the good of its citizens.

The New Nazis of Washington, Brussels, London, Paris and Geneva do not give up on their plans to destroy Russia and get their money grubbing hands on Russia's vast natural resources.

The centre of conflict is now around the city of Mariupol, currenly surrounded by Russian troops and the political strongold of Uraine's neo - Nazi, para - military political movement, the Azov Brigade.

All eyes are on Mariupol in eastern Ukraine. On Wednesday night, over 70% of residential areas were under control of Donetsk and Russian forces, while Russian Marines, Donetsk’s 107th batallion and Chechen Spetsnaz, led by the charismatic Adam Delimkhanov, had entered the Azov-Stal plant – the HQ of the neo-Nazi Azov batallion.

The Azov leaderrship in Maruipol was sent a last ultimatum: surrender earlier this week,which  implies a shift in Russian tactics in the Ukrainian conflict; Mariupol is about to be denazified and the Azov brigade which in leading the resistance has been using civilians as human shields were the Ukrainian militar's most hardened fighting force having been waging an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Russian speaking populations of breakaway regions Luhamsk and Donetsk since 2014.

 Elsewhere the Russian advane into Ukraine seems to have been paused. While most of mainstream media raves hysterically of brave little Ukraine inficting a humiliating defeat on the big bully Russia,  Bloomberg reported more realistacally on Friday that the Kremlin may be limiting its key military objectives to taking full control over the Donbas region. This despite multiple parts of the county, including outside the capital of Kiev, still witnessing intense fighting and shelling.

The hugely important Bloomberg article says that "After a month of fighting that has yielded limited territorial gains, the Russian military said it’s focusing efforts on taking full control of Ukraine’s Donbas region, potentially a sign it’s backing away from hopes of taking larger swathes of the country."

The Russian military's first deputy chief of the General Staff Sergei Rudskoi seemed to confirm this in the following  statement (as quoted in Interfax): "Our forces will focus on the main thing - the complete liberation of Donbas."

Bloomberg commented on the Russian commander's words, "Rudskoi claimed Russian troops have surrounded several major cities but deliberately didn’t seek to take them, instead aiming to pin Ukrainian troops down. His comments were the most detailed official accounting of Russian military performance since the Feb. 24 invasion."

But what of the other side, and I don't mean the clown Zelensk's antics, noises from Washington, London, Brussels and the military leaders of NATO about 'taking down Putin' but give the game away. There’s no intention among the main nations of the alliance, France, UK and US (the FUKUS axis,) to facilitate a peace plan in Ukraine – and that explains Comedian Zelensky’s non-stop stalling tactics. The supreme target is regime change in Russia, and for that Totalen Krieg against Russia and all things Russian is warranted. Ukraine is just a pawn in the game – or worse, mere cannon fodder.

Turkey's President Erdogan said that Russia and Ukraine have reached "an understanding" on 4 out of 6 key contentious issues.  Both sides continue blaming the intransigence of the other for lack of significant breakthroughs, and so far only temporary humanitarian corridors have been briefly established in major zones of fighting.

The Kremlin's chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky was cited in Interfax as saying that "Russia sees no progress on key issues in talks with Ukraine." This even after Ukraine's Zelensky has in recent weeks appeared to back off public statements expressing desire for a "path" to NATO membership. He's recently said he's "cooled" on the issue and is ready to discuss neutrality.

What the sticking points in negotiations may be is not clear. A highly likely problem is that reparations to the Luhansk and Donetsk regional governments to compensate for the estimaed 14,000 deaths suffered by citizens of the rebel regions at the hands of Ukrainian government troops figures large in the discussions.

More likely however is the role of neo - Nazi groups in waging war on Luhansk and Donetsk. Since the 2014 comour revolution engineered by USA, NATO and the EU which put a coalition of far - right, Russophobic groups in power in Kiev,  Azov has reportedly assimilated almost all neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine and recruited foreign mercenaries from Western Europe, Scandinavia and even South America to fight in Donbas. The Azov battalion was incorporated as the Azov Regiment into the Ukrainian National Guard

These activities were forbidden by the Minsk Agreements guaranteed by France and Germany which guaranteed the security and autonomy withing Ukraine of the breakaway regions but were ignored from day one by the US / NATO backed government in Kiev

 So when we step back and see the full picture through a longer lens it is not as simple as mainstream media and the Davosocracy would have us believe and to present it as a straight fight, Ukraine and their NATO backers as the good guys, Russia, which is not by any means as isolated in the international community as the globalists' narrative would have us believe, the Big Bad Bear. In fact there are no good guys or bad guys on this, just politicians protecting their own rather than their nation's interests.

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EU Steps Back From Impractical Russia Oil Embargo

 

By John Kemp, Senior Market Analyst at Reuters

EU leaders have stepped back from imposing an immediate embargo on Russian crude and petroleum product imports as the impracticality of the policy has become clear.  Imposing an immediate embargo on Russia’s fossil fuels “from one day to the next would mean plunging our country and the whole of Europe into a recession,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz told German lawmakers this week.

Russia’s exports of crude and petroleum products to Europe are the second largest bilateral flow of oil between any two trading partners in the world, behind the United States and Canada, according to data from BP. 

Russia supplied 29% of Europe’s crude imports and 51% of the continent's petroleum product imports in 2019, the last year before the pandemic (“Statistical review of world energy”, BP, 2020).

No other trading partner came close to Russia’s share, which would make it extremely hard to replace in the short term.

So even speculation about a possible ban drove oil prices sharply higher this week, as traders weighed the practical difficulties, before prices retreated as it became clear EU policymakers were backing away from the idea.

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Friday, March 25, 2022

Debunked: the great green renewables delusion

 

By Patrick Benham-Crosswell

ONE of the great lines of the proponents of renewable power is that the input energy (mostly wind and solar) is free, therefore producing renewable energy is less expensive that from fossil fuels. Even though wind isn’t always available and therefore needs some back-up power – usually gas fired – the more wind generation there is the less gas will be needed and therefore the cheaper energy will be.

There’s just one problem: that’s not what the evidence shows. The reality is that there is a close correlation between the amount of wind generation and the increasing price of electricity. More renewables makes electricity more expensive.

I’ll prove it. The graph below comes from government data (the BEIS DUKES data set and the Asset publishing service). 

The grey line is the gas price for a large user (in p/kWh). Over the 14 years of the chart it’s pretty much the same.

The green line is the proportion of electricity from renewables (excluding nuclear). The great rush for renewables has certainly delivered an impressive amount of capacity.

The purple line is the ratio of the non-domestic electricity price to the gas price. (I’ve used the non-domestic price to avoid price caps distorting the truth). This tells us that up to 2013 a kWh of electricity was about four times the cost of a kWh of gas.  That’s not surprising, it takes about 2.5 kWh of gas to make one kWh of electricity and of course there are the operating and capital costs of the power plant to consider, plus the transmission costs.

Yet since 2013 the proportion of renewable electricity has trebled, but electricity is now seven times as expensive as gas. Greta’s gang will scream ‘Correlation is not causation!’ Fair enough; what could have caused this, then?

It can’t be the gas price, because that was pretty much constant.

The gas power stations are still there, so they still have costs. But now they are used 30 per cent less. If they were running 8,000 hours a year in 2004 they’re running 5,600 hours a year now. While this reduces the amount of (then) cheap gas that they need, it doesn’t alter the fixed costs, which now have fewer hours to be recovered so the fixed cost per hour increases. Who pays? You do.

That’s not all. There are the subsidies hidden in the Climate Change Levy. The subsidy regime for electricity generation is almost impenetrably complex. (The theory behind them was to encourage investors to take the risks of new technologies by guaranteeing that they would make a profit. Wind and solar are hardly new any more – but that’s an argument for another day). Fortunately the subsidy regime has been unpicked by the Renewable Energy Foundation who have produced the chart below. The subsidy rate for electricity is increasing, even though the technology is mature. The risks have decreased but the rewards remain. Who pays? You do.

It gets worse. There is a dynamic market for electricity which ensures that when you flick a switch the power flows. This market is competitive, the electricity companies buy from the lowest priced supplier. If there is a shortfall, as there increasingly is if the wind doesn’t blow (or the sun doesn’t shine) as anticipated, the gas generators can charge huge amounts.  ... Continue reading >>> EXPLORE OUR PAGES:

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Niall Ferguson On Misunderstanding History: "Biden Is Making A Colossal Mistake"

 

Authored by Niall Ferguson, op-ed via Bloomberg.com,

Biden is making a colossal mistake in thinking he can bleed Russia dry, topple Putin and signal to China to keep its hands off Taiwan...

“The language people speak in the corridors of power,” former Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter once observed, “is not economics or politics. It is history.”

In a recent academic article, I showed how true this was after both the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001 and the “9/15” bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Policy makers used all kinds of historical analogies as they reacted. “The Pearl Harbor of the 21st century took place today,” President George W. Bush noted in his diary, late on the night of the attacks, to give just one example, though many other parallels were drawn in the succeeding days, from the Civil War to the Cold War.

Seven years later, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke and New York Fed President Tim Geithner were the first members of the Federal Open Market Committee to appreciate that, without drastic measures, they risked re-running the Great Depression.

What kind of history is informing today’s decisions in Washington as the war in Ukraine nears the conclusion of its first month? A few clues have emerged.

“American officials are divided on how much the lessons from Cold War proxy wars, like the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan, can be applied to the ongoing war in Ukraine,” David Sanger reported for the New York Times on Saturday.

According to Sanger, who cannot have written his piece without high-level sources, the Biden administration “seeks to help Ukraine lock Russia in a quagmire without inciting a broader conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary or cutting off potential paths to de-escalation … CIA officers are helping to ensure that crates of weapons are delivered into the hands of vetted Ukrainian military units, according to American officials. But as of now, Mr. Biden and his staff do not see the utility of an expansive covert effort to use the spy agency to ferry in arms as the United States did in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union during the 1980s.”

Reading this carefully, I conclude that the U.S. intends to keep this war going. The administration will continue to supply the Ukrainians with anti-aircraft Stingers, antitank Javelins and explosive Switchblade drones. It will keep trying to persuade other North Atlantic Treaty Organization governments to supply heavier defensive weaponry. (The latest U.S. proposal is for Turkey to provide Ukraine with the sophisticated S-400 anti-aircraft system, which Ankara purchased from Moscow just a few years ago. I expect it to go the way of the scuttled plan for Polish MiG fighters.) Washington will revert to the Afghanistan-after-1979 playbook of supplying an insurgency only if the Ukrainian government loses the conventional war.

I have evidence from other sources to corroborate this. “The only end game now,” a senior administration official was heard to say at a private event earlier this month, “is the end of Putin regime. Until then, all the time Putin stays, [Russia] will be a pariah state that will never be welcomed back into the community of nations. China has made a huge error in thinking Putin will get away with it. Seeing Russia get cut off will not look like a good vector and they’ll have to re-evaluate the Sino-Russia axis. All this is to say that democracy and the West may well look back on this as a pivotal strengthening moment.”

I gather that senior British figures are talking in similar terms. There is a belief that “the U.K.’s No. 1 option is for the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin.” Again and again, I hear such language. It helps explain, among other things, the lack of any diplomatic effort by the U.S. to secure a cease-fire.  It also explains the readiness of President Joe Biden to call Putin a war criminal.

Now, I may be too pessimistic. I would very much like to share Francis Fukuyama’s optimism that “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine.” Here is his bold prediction from March 10 (also here):

The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. … Putin will not survive the defeat of his army … A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.

From his laptop to God’s ears.   ... Continue reading >>>

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Thursday, March 24, 2022

News Roundup - 24 March 2022


If Ukraine rejects a deal, there could be much worse to come

by  Lieutenant-General Jonathon Riley in TCW Defending Freedom,

IN my last article in TCW I suggested that Russia was positioning itself for peace negotiations and set out, given what they now held, what the terms might be. Putin’s pitch to President Erdogan of Turkey came soon after and it was very much as I had set out. Today there are signals from the negotiations that a deal is ‘close’. To recap, this would hinge on Russia gaining the Donbas, perhaps after a referendum and no guesses as to how that would go; Crimea and its water supply; a corridor to the Crimea, either by annexation of territory on the coasts of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea or else as a concession like that to Kaliningrad on the Baltic; and Ukraine giving up all ideas of membership of Nato, and also possibly the EU if the EU could afford them. Putin appears not to want to occupy the rest of Ukraine – apart from anything else, he does not have half a million troops to garrison it, even if he could pay them after the effects of western sanctions have bled him.

What would Ukraine get in return for such huge concessions?  No further (substantial) damage to Kiev and no encroachment on the port of Odessa on the Black Sea for sure; guarantees of security for what they would be worth; and presumably the safety of President Zelensky and his family. This would leave Ukraine free, but without most of its industrial infrastructure and its resources of minerals and gas, dependent on agricultural exports and lower living standards for Ukrainians. There might have to be some sort of Marshall Aid plan for Ukraine, with Russia making a contribution, or else a deal like this is unlikely to bring an end to Western sanctions on Russia and so even as Putin declares victory at home, the squeeze on ordinary Russians will get ever worse.

 The region has a distinct identity and doesn’t fit neatly into either Russia or Ukraine

 
Historic roots of the Donbass problem explained

Current events have brought a renewed focus on the Donbass, a historical region on the border of Ukraine and Russia. By the standards of history, this area has emerged quite recently, and has always stood a little apart. It’s important to understand its evolution when viewing this crisis, which began in 2014. 

Today, Donbass is an industrial and mining region, but for a long time it was largely uninhabited. The steppe zone that ran along the southern borders of medieval ‘Rus’ (not yet divided into Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus) was called the ‘Wild Fields.’ It was home to nomadic peoples and farmers only moved south with great difficulty. After the Mongol invasion in the 13th century, the Wild Fields  was a dangerous place to find yourself. 

Around four hundred years, a few peasants from Russia and Ukraine began to gradually settle in the future Donbass.

A great leap forward came in the 19th century when the coal deposits discovered there became necessary for industry. It was then that many of the cities without which it is impossible to imagine today’s Donbass were founded. In 1869, the British industrialist John Hughes built a factory around which the village of Yuzovka grew – it had a few more names, including Stalino,  before a local man renamed it Donetsk, in 1961
 

As Energy System Comes Apart, Germany Now Preparing Emergency Natural Gas Rationing Plans

from Watts Up With That, 24 March 2022

By P Gosselin on 22. March 2022 

Germany is saying “auf Wiedersehen” to plentiful and cheap energies and welcoming tight supplies and rationing. Unless they radically change course, German policymakers will soon be closing the remaining nuclear power plants by the end of the year and coal-fired power plants will be phased out over the coming 15 years.

 To make matters worse, European policymakers are moving to phase out fossil fuel powered cars and to replace them with e-vehicles, thus leading to skyrocketing electricity demand precisely when supply is being choked off. Experts warn of blackouts and hyperinflationary energy prices. Moreover, Europe is moving to profoundly restrict its supply of natural gas from Russia. 

All these measures taken together are certain to lead to unprecedented energy shortages over the coming years. Therefore, it’s little wonder the government is now scrambling to make plans to ration natural gas when the disastrous shortages arrive. “The government is having a contingency plan drawn up to determine which companies should first stop receiving gas when Russian natural gas fails to arrive,” reports Blackout News.de here. “A corresponding emergency plan is being prepared under the auspices of the Federal Network Agency.” Continue reading >>>

 
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‘A Loss of Humanity’: Dr. Scott Atlas Laments Societal Damage Caused by Psychotic COVID Authoritarians

from Big League Politcs 24 March 2022

On Wednesday night, Dr. Scott Atlas, former member of White House Coronavirus Task Force, appeared at Michigan State University where he addressed hundreds of students about the disastrous consequences of failed COVID-19 policy.

During the presentation, Dr. Atlas went through dozens of studies showing how COVID-19 lockdowns caused cascading problems that society may never recover from. These include excess deaths, severe mental health issues, economic damage to the poor and lower class, and a permanent divide among the brainwashed and those who have maintained the ability of independent, rational thought.


Before his presentation, Dr. Atlas met privately with patriotic leaders throughout the state – including journalists, gubernatorial candidates, state representatives, student activists, civil liberties attorneys, front-line doctors and others – where he talked candidly about the dire situation facing America.

Dr. Atlas addressed top activists in the state before speaking with students at Michigan State University.

Dr. Atlas, whose book A Plague Upon Our House: My Fight at the Trump White House to Stop COVID from Destroying America is now for sale, described how his naivety led him into the role of lead skeptic against megalomaniacal government scientists at war with free humanity.

“We are in a world where we can not trust people to be filters any more. We cannot trust people anymore because they have credentials,” Dr. Atlas explained.
Continue reading >>>

 

SYSTEM FAILURE: Commodities markets, banks, currencies and contracts begin breaking down… and the consequences will be catastrophic

by Mike Adams, News Target - 24 March 2022

When Nickel prices recently spiked at $100,000 / ton, the London Metal Exchange (LME) decided to halt all trading and reverse over 4,000 trades in order to protect the profits of a China-based mega-player who had been exposed to over $5 billion in margin calls. In effect, the LME declared that it will now pick winners and losers arbitrarily, the markets be damned.

In doing that, the LME committed credibility suicide. There is now no rational reason for any investor or trader to trust any transaction at the LME, not in copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel or other metals. Markets no longer work at the LME, and you are only allowed to “win” a trade if the LME gives you the nod. Wins can also be retroactively stolen from you by the exchange reversing trades. They will actually go back in time to screw you over for past winnings.

Just recently in Canada, the tyrannical Justin Castro Trudeau regime ordered banks to seize private account holdings of citizens who donated to the freedom trucker convoy. Overnight, the contract of banking was ripped to shreds. Banks can no longer be trusted to protect the assets you have deposited with them. Instead, they will steal your money any time the government orders them to do so, utterly without any due process or rule of law, even if you have broken no laws whatsoever.

On a larger scale, the central banks of the world just stole $300 billion in central bank “reserves” owned by Russia. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, western banks decided this gave them permission to steal $300 billion in Russian assets, thereby destroying the entire concept of “reserves” in one fell swoop. Now, no rational nation in the world will trust western central banks to hold their reserves in a safe manner. Central banks are now train robbers. They will loot whatever accounts are held by foreign nations they no longer like.

In courtrooms across America and western nations, facts, reason and law are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Prosecutorial decisions are now made entirely based on virtue signaling. If a Leftist murders a Trump supporter in broad daylight, the charges will be dropped against them — this is exactly what happened recently in Colorado. But if a conservative does nothing more than peacefully protest at the nation’s capitol building, they will be thrown into prison for years without trial, even if they violated no laws and did nothing wrong.
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China Quietly Buying Russian Oil As Kazakhstan Says CPC Terminal Halt To Last

from Zero Hedge, 24 March 2022

Days after we reported that India stubbornly refused to yield to western pressure and continued to buy cheap Russian crude oil at a discount of around $30 to dated brent...

... today Bloomberg reports what we have known all along, namely that China’s oil refiners are "discreetly" purchasing cheap Russian crude as the nation’s supply continues to seep into the market.

However, unlike India’s state-run oil refiners, which have issued a number of tenders seeking to buy Russia’s flagship Urals crude among other grades, traders say China’s state processors are negotiating privately under the radar with sellers so as not to make their support for the Putin regime too glaring in light of Western opposition.

At the same time, China’s worst virus outbreak since the start of the pandemic has led to some oil refiners cutting back operations and is forcing analysts to rethink their demand estimates.

So on one hand, the Covid-19 resurgence is posing a threat to global oil consumption and may accelerate demand destruction, helping to rein in bloated prices that soared on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but on the other it seems the world is about to be hit with another lengthy disruption.

Continue reading >>>
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.

Sharron Davies threatened after criticising Lia Thomas competing in women's sport

James Micklethwaite, GB News, 24 March 2022

The former Olympic swimmer waded into the row on Lia Thomas, who was born a man, competing in women's swimming 

Sharron Davies MBE revealed she has been threatened over her views on transgender women competing in women's sport.

Swimmer Lia Thomas sparked huge debate around the subject when she became the first transgender woman to win an NCAA swimming title.

Debate raged around whether Lia should be able to compete in the women's division after transitioning from a male.

Labour MP Charlotte Nichols congratulated Lia on her achievement, branding any criticism as "lazy transphobia".

But Olympic silver medallist Ms Davies argued that it was unfair for women for Lia to be competing against them.

Sharron Davies
Sharron Davies

Since airing her views, Ms Davies revealed on Twitter she had received "several threats".

She wrote: "I’ve received several threats to myself and my work because I present evidence based facts on the unfairness of male inclusion in women’s sport.

"Which is biological sex based decriminalisation. I will not stop bringing these actual facts into the light or be bullied into silence.

"I’m used to it now. But I feel we are turning the corner and open debate to find science based solutions are not far away that will protect the integrity and rights of females in sport as well as offering up ways to be inclusive but not as the cost of another groups rights."

Mar 19, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Penn Quakers swimmer Lia Thomas on the pool deck at the NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships at Georgia Tech. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 19, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Penn Quakers swimmer Lia Thomas on the pool deck at the NCAA Swimming & Diving Championships at Georgia Tech. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Thomas' victory came after a civil rights complaint was submitted against the University of Pennsylvania for permitting her to compete on its swimming team.

Also brought up was Lia's ranking of 462nd when she competed in the male ranks.

Government of Canada data shows the Triple Vaccinated are over 5x more likely to die of Covid-19 than the Unvaccinated

The Daily Expose, 24 March 2022

The Government of Canada recently started to include the triple vaccinated in their weekly data on Covid-19 deaths by vaccination status. But unfortunately for those who have succumbed to three doses of a Covid-19 injection, that data shows they are over 5 times more likely to die of Covid-19 than the unvaccinated population.


 

The Canadian Covid-19 figures are produced by the Government of Canada (see here).

Their latest data is available as a downloadable pdf here.

Here are the tables from the January 30th, February 6th, February 13th, February 20th, and February 27th, Government of Canada Covid-19 Daily Epidemiology Update’ reports showing the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths by vaccination status from as far back as 14th December 2020, as well as the total population sizes of each vaccine group at the time of each report –