For years Iran has confronted the power duopoly of the USA and Isrsel in the Middle East in spite of the crippling economic sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.
That situation held for many years as support from China and Russia blunted most of the intended effects of sanctions and enhanced the Iranian theocracy's ability to convince its citizens they were involved in a holy war and their suffering would be rewarded in heaven. Unfortunately part of the holy war the Iranian government did not make such a big deal of was their sponsorship of terrorist activities, mainly against the key US ally in the Middle East, Israel.
Unfortunately Hamas, the jihadist group in Palestine, grew overconfident and on October 7 2023 carried out an atrocity that killed over 1200 Israeli civilians, with hundreds more taken hostage and many women and girls raped. Israel had to respond by attacking Hamas in Gaza, Iran struck Israel and the situation slowly escalated until this year when the USA in support of its ally, engaged Iran in full scale war.
The conflict should have been a walkover for the US military bu Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is a more useful instrument of power than all of The Pentagon's nuclear arsenal would be. A nuclear weapon might deter an attack, but control of the strait gives Iran leverage every day, over the flow of oil, liquid petroleum gas hydrocarbons from the Gulf States to dozens of countries around the world. With it, By weaponising Hormuz Iran can reward friends, punish enemies, extract revenue, force the loosening of sanctions, and make governments think twice before taking sides against the turdbrains in Tehran. It can do all of this without firing a shot because with its artillery placed on the high ground overlooking the strait, all shipping passing through the waterway is vulnerable, so Iran needs to do litttle other than preserving the ability to threaten violence when necessary.
Writing in the Atlantic the neo-con Robert Kagan ponders the consequences of a U.S. defeat in the middle east:
Iran Unleashed – The dominant power in the Middle East from now on will not be the U.S. or Israel but Iran. (archived) – Atlantic, Aug 23, 2026
For years, Iran confronted a balance of power in the Middle East that tilted against it. The region was dominated by a hostile American superpower, a nuclear-armed and militarily superior Israel, and significant local actors—Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—that were strategically and economically aligned with the United States.
Today finds Iran in entirely new circumstances. It has gone head-to-head with the superpower and Israel, withstood a pounding from their most advanced weapons, and more than survived. As a result, Iran has, with help from the USA, completely reconfigured the power structure of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. The dominant power in the region going forward will be Iran, not the U.S. or Israel. Neighbouring countries are already making their adjustments to this new reality. More distant powers will too. For years, the world has been dealing with an Iran constrained. It will now discover what Iran unleashed looks like.
Kagan says that Iran does not need a treaty, MoU, or any other deal with the U.S. It does not even need nuclear weapons. Sanctions against Iran will not help, it is a hue country and can be self sufficient in food, fuel and the necessities without support from China and Russia (which it still has BTW.):
Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz is a more useful instrument of power than a nuclear weapon would be. A nuclear weapon might deter an attack, but control of the strait gives Iran leverage every day, over dozens of countries. With it, Iran can reward friends, punish enemies, extract revenue, force the loosening of sanctions, and make governments think twice before opposing Iranian policies. It can do all of this without firing a shot, and while preserving the ability to threaten violence when necessary.
The sanctions strategy that for decades served to isolate Iran rested on international cooperation. Nations that depend on access to the strait—Japan and South Korea, for example—will have to choose between access to a reliable energy supply and participation in American-backed sanctions. Will they choose solidarity with Washington—this Washington—over their economic interests? In the new order that Iran is creating, a global sanctions regime is likely to be unsustainable.
Throughout the current conflict the US has repeatedly disregarded, downplayed or derided the Iranian’s ability to military defend themselves and inflict pain on American assets. Washington's arrogant attitude towards the Iranians has seen over 90 US military aircraft, worth more than 10 billion dollars destroyed, the operational destruction of at three quarters of the 20 US military bases in the Middle East built over the last 40 years, the destruction of the 5th fleet’s naval HQ and of all 8 major radar instillations in the Middle east worth between 5-8 billion dollars. Officially 18 US military deaths (unofficial numbers that include US private military, US civilian contractors and soldiers who died “later” due to their injuries are estimated at over 1500!) and of course the loss of roughly 25% of world wide supply of oil and oil-related products (fertiliser, sulphur, helium, nitrogen, asphalt, etc..). The Americans have constantly talked about Iran as if it was a rotten house and one good kick would bring down the entire rotten structure.
But when sanctions have failed, to suggest the solution is more sanctions indicates Washington is out of ideas for ending this conflict.
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Peter Hitchens
“The scale of the challenge has not been well understood by the aggressors: as of today, we are losing 13 million barrels per day and tomorrow it may be bigger,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. This blog reported last year during a preliminary skirmish to the war that if The USA or Israel attacked Iran the Iraian response would be to weaponise The Strait of Hormuz by blockading the movement of ships in and out..
They have done just that, and now US President Trump is blockading ships belonging to Iran's allies from using the Strait, Iran is threatening that its Houthi allies in Yemen will block the route in and out of the Red Sea, which would leave The Suez canal, capable of handling only a fraction of the traffic to and from oil ports in Saudi Arabia. With Trump's ceasefire unlikely to hold as reports come in of Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hourmuz the world must prepare for prolonged economic disruption.
In spite of all Trump's bluster the fact is that because it can position artillery on the high ground overlooking the strait and hide small, fast, heavily armed gunboats in the numerous coves and inlets along it's Gulf coast Iran can maintain its ability to control the flow of oil by tanker out of the Strait of Hormuz almost indefinitely
If nothing else this war should have shown the Green Loons that oil and hydrocarbons are still the world's most important trade.
The shortfall is likely to rise to 15 million barrels if the US navy carries out its plan to blockade Iranian oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which is extremely unlikely as it would mean attacking ships from China. Donald Trump launched this war with inadequate forces based on Israeli assurances – deemed “farcical” by his own CIA chief – that Iran would crumble at the first shock, thus while failure was not guaranteed, it was always more likely than a quick victory.
Tehran has warned it will expand the war to the Red Sea route if its ships are attacked or sunk, endangering another six million barrels a day at the Saudi terminal of Yanbu and causing wider havoc to global container shipping. Should this happen it will plunge everywhere in the world into a fuel crisis plus economic and political chaos.
“The ports of the Gulf are either for everyone or for no one,” the Iranian regime said.