Six weeks into the the much hyped Ukrainian counter offensive and with nothing to show for the thousands of young men killed or wounded significant breakthrough after six weeks, it is worth asking whether Ukraine’s counter-offensive is another US / NATO military disaster, because it certainly succeeding up to succeeding now.
A German built Leopard II tank in action in Ukraine
Throughout the war western media have faithfully reported the official narrative that Ukraine is winning even though it was obvious to anyone with more testicles or tits as the case may be, than brain cells that Russia was gradually advancing and consolidating its gains. When sensationalised reports heralded great Ukrainian victories these were usuallly nothing more than a case of Russia having withdrawn to more easily defensible positions.
Having now built up their forces through mobilisation and dug extensive defence lines during the winter's lull in fighting, the Russians aren’t going anywhere.
That has left Ukraine with no option other than to launch frontal attacks against heavily defended positions, similar to the tactics used on the Western Front
in World War I where trench lines ran continuously from Switzerland to
the sea, with neither side achieving a decisive breakthrough for four
years. Today Kyiv is more vulnerable to shifts Western policy, given the possibility of a Trump presidency and very visible signs of war fatigue among the general populations of Europe and North America.
The main question then is: can the Ukrainians cope – militarily, politically, financially – with months or even years of 1914-18 style trench warfare with added tank traps, minefields,
bunkers and cluster bombs? The UK Ministry of Defence has described these
Russia's front lines as “some of the most extensive systems of
military defensive works seen anywhere in the world”.
