Monday, August 15, 2022

Conspiracy Theories, reality and null hypothesis

posted by Arthur Quinnell, 15 August 2022

Cast you minds back about 18 months, there was a conspiracy theory going round that a 100% Safe and Effective Vaccine had been developed by pharmaceutical corporations, to be freely administered by governments and injected into billions of people around the globe ostensibly to save their lives from a deadly virus pandemic was in fact not a vaccine but a gene editing technology that would alter DNA, lead to millions of early deaths and usher in an era of global tyranny under an authoritarian world government.

Among those millions who believed it and fell victim to the propaganda was my brother - in - law. He was over 80 and had slight dementia but otherwise was in fine health. Took the vax, first and second shot, fell ill shortly afterwards, couple of days later e slipped into a coma as his heart failed and he never recovered.

There were many such cases here in the UK, in one care home in Basingstoke a third of the 73 residents in a care home died of 'unfortunate coincidences' days after getting their COVID vaccination. Thereafter almost all discussion of the probability that some flaw in the vaccines was linked to the deaths was censored, we had to follow The Science' we were told. In reality, science is a profession of conspiracy theories. The scientific methods involves investigating  phenomena or an event that no one has yet figured out why the phenomena exists or the event occurred. and based on an evaluation of the available observable s developing a guess (a conspiracy theory <=a hypothesis) to explain why the phenomena exists or how or why the event occurred.

This guess explanation is called a hypothesis <=in scientific lingo, and a conspiracy theory if asserted the theory is asserted as true.. There is a useful grammar that can force false assertions to be proven wrong. That grammar is called the null hypothesis statement.. Null meaning the idea is to prove the positive assertion in the hypothesis to be wrong. Science never proves facts. Since is a collection of hypothesis as yet not proven wrong. Science always seeks to prove conspiracy theories (hypotheses) wrong. Because if the theory cannot be proven wrong, then it stands to reason it might be correct.

For example, a hypothesis to explain how it is that Magellan sailed around the world might go something like this.. Hypothesis: the soil we walk on and water we float on is continuously connected from start to finish (that is the surface of the earth is round)? Prove the earth is not round is a job for science. That hypothesis was proven wrong by geographers; they discovered the world was not exactly round, its not even a perfect geometric shape, but its surface is continuously connected and it nearly round. So now the surface of the earth is said to be round..and no one has proven the earth to be other than nearly round. so the assertion that the earth is round stands, that is the science.

Conspiracy theories are ridiculed because they lack proper grammar. In stead of trying prove a positive, restate the conspiracy theory as a null hypothesis< an assertion of the theory as a fact>: HC ordered Jamal Khashoggi killed (

So turn the table on those who ridicule conspiracy theories Reword the guess (theory) in order to make the words of the guess into a null hypothesis. Let those who ridicule conspiracy theories prove the null hypothesis wrong.

If it can be shown in some way, that JC did not order the death of Jamal Khashoggi then the null hypothesis is not wrong<=but that does not make the assertion a fact? Until someone proves this null hypothesis wrong <=the hypothesis stands undefeated <=suggesting it is possible that HC ordered Jamal Khashoggi ‘s demise. In other words, the null hypothesis(states the conspiracy theory as a positive <=a guess, made into an assertion which demands of those wishing to challenge the theory to prove(nullify) the assertion to be wrong.

Those who wish to argue with the guess made into an assertion, are then called upon to prove the assertion (guess) wrong! . Until the positive is proven wrong, it will always be a possibility that HC did order Jamal’s death. Those who want to argue with the conspiracy theory need only to prove HC did not order Jamal;s death. The idea here is to hush up conspiracy theory attacks, and make the attacker prove the null hypothesis wrong.

Using your words.
Null hypothesis:
a 100% Safe and Effective Covid 19 Vaccine exists.

prove it wrong.. what would it take to prove the hypothesis wrong?
If anyone can show that a single death occurred either from a vaccination or that a single Covid 19 vaccinated person died from a Covid 19 infection, then the hypothesis is nulled out (wrong). Ok so its wrong <=now what? Redefine the hypothesis?

only 90% of those vaccinated for Covid 19 will die from vaccine associated causes?
Can this statement be proven wrong? Suppose it is shown that 70% of the people die from Covid 19 vaccination. Then change the hypothesis to
only 70% of those vaccinated for Covid 19 will die from vaccination associated causes.

I like the following null hypothesis: ” NATO imposed conditions that made Russia’s Special Military Operation in Ukraine necessary”. <=prove this wrong. 



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