Wednesday, June 07, 2023

Ukraine’s Long-Term Plan To Blow-Up The Kakhova Dam Exposed

 Russian President Vladimir Putin has addressed the Nova Kakhovka dam blast in public comments on Wednesday for the first time, charging that it was a "barbaric act" of the Ukrainian government and its military forces. 

Ukraine has in its turn blamed Russian forces for blowing up the huge dam which holds back 18 cubic kilometers of water, along with the hydroelectric power plant, and unleashing flooding across the war zone, and President Volodomyr Zelensky condemned “Russian terrorists”. Russian officials claimed the dam was damaged by Ukrainian military strikes.

But as the two sides observe their usual ritual of pointing fingers at each other, The Washington Post which has supported Ukrainian propaganda throughout the war, broke ranks with the rest of mainstream media on this one. Great Game India reports:

A report from the Washington Post (WaPo) reveals that in late December 2022, information about a long-term Ukrainian  plan to blow up the Kakhova Dam, which had been exposed.

A day after Ukraine’s much-heralded counter-offensive appears to have failed, almost before it had even begun, a major dam in the Russian-occupied region of Kherson is suddenly bombed, prompting mass evacuations as floods spread across the region.

As we detailed earlier, both sides accuse each other of the attack that puts tens of thousands of homes at risk and might even threaten the safety of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant.

However, as Raul Ilargi Meijer writes, twice last year (here and here), Ukrainian officials discussed Kiev’s plans to blow up the dam.

 This comes as a second surprise from WaPo in the same week as the organisation produced a surprise report pointing to Ukrainian guilt in sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines after mainstream media in the west had spent almost a year screming "It wuz da Russians.".

The Ukrainian propagandists are claiming that the Russian blew up the dam. That is however unlikely.

On October 21 2022 Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, sent a letter to the UN Secretary General about the plans of the Kiev regime to destroy the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.

In a report about last years Kherson counteroffensive the Washington Post reported of Ukrainian plans and attempts to blow up the dam:

[Maj. Gen. Andriy] Kovalchuk considered flooding the river. The Ukrainians, he said, even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates at the Nova Kakhovka dam, making three holes in the metal to see if the Dnieper’s water could be raised enough to stymie Russian crossings but not flood nearby villages.

The test was a success, Kovalchuk said, but the step remained a last resort. He held off.

Destroying its own infrastructure is nothing new for Ukrainian servicemen. In April 2022 the New York Times already noted this:

What happened in Demydiv was not an outlier. Since the war’s early days, Ukraine has been swift and effective in wreaking havoc on its own territory, often by destroying infrastructure, as a way to foil a Russian army with superior numbers and weaponry.

Demydiv was flooded when troops opened a nearby dam and sent water surging into the countryside. Elsewhere in Ukraine, the military has, without hesitation, blown up bridges, bombed roads and disabled rail lines and airports. The goal has been to slow Russian advances, channel enemy troops into traps and force tank columns onto less favorable terrain.

Another possibility is that neither side actually blew a breach in the dam this week. A contributor in the Moon of Alabama comment thread on this story offers this suggestion:

The road and top of the dam was breached on around May 29th and Meleleuca, another person that I cant remember and myself commented on it here about it at the time. I had seen a video purporting to be taken by Ukro troops and the water was already coming over the breach.

What was strange was that no one in the blogosphere or Russian official channels seemed to have noticed it or at least commented on it this last week. To my mind any breach or cut in the road even ,would have been significantly newsworthy. Was it purposefully downgraded and goven low news value for some reason? Noone seems to know about how it has become so large a breach or about the explosion .

Seems to me the dam probably simply gave way. And it seems to me it is for the best from the Allied point of view for it removes a potential threat.
When the allies move to regain Kherson they will now have a dried up flood plain to cross with no potential danger of a dam breach.
Crossing a flood plain to a citadel on high ground not a pleasant task but they quit the citadel so they must have anticipated. Perhaps they have no intention of taking Kherson itself but simply acquiring it as part of the whole parcel when they conquer Kiev in some other way.
IF they can fight at all.

It seems to us Boggart Bloggers that nobody really knows anything which is par for the course in this war.

 

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