After the COVID years and another round of 'The Russians Are Coming' scarmongering the Warmageddonist movement has returned to the headlines this year as the latest in a never ending stream in the 'existential threat to humanity' series. In an unusually hot, dry June here in the UK, alarmists were whipping up fears over runaway warming causing more deaths than COVID (which actually didn't cause many deaths at all,) and how we had passed the points of no return with climate change and disaster was imminent.
An unusually cold, wet July scuppered that one.
But the Warmageddonist sect is like any other quasi religious,pseudo scientific cult and no matter how many time their forecasts of doom are debunked by events or their predictions are so far of the mark they cannot even be considered wrong, the scaremonger simply carry on as if nothing had happened and offer a new but equally whacky doomsday scenario.
Their latest is a warning that a supposed low rate of winter sea ice in Antarctica shows the ice is melting at a much faster rate than was peviously thought and is going to drown half the worlds population. Clive Cookson, science editor of the august and level headed newpaper The Financial Times has recently written thatAntarctica “faces a catastrophic cascade of extreme environmental events… that will affect climate around the world”.Strangely the scientific report written by a science editor and citing several peer reviewed scientific research papers overlooks that fact that sea ice is the ice that floats on the surface of the ocean which, because ice displaces its own weight of water and thus its melting does not affect water levels either way, while faithfully reporting the 'imminent disaster' narrative. At risk of stating the obvious, there is also no mention that Antarctica sea ice was at a record high in 2014, but curiously missing from all the hysteria is the fact that reanalysed early satellite data shows similar levels of winter ice in 1966. Even more curious is that minimal investigative journalism is required to expose this information, since it is supplied by the frequently-consulted National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC).
NSIDC cites evidence that early Nimbus satellite data revealed winter sea ice extent of around 15 million square kilometres in 1966 “may have rivalled the very low level seen today”.
Satellite monitoring of geophysical change was in its infancy back in 1966 so conclusions drawn from the reanalysed data cannot be taken as 100% accurate but they are at least a guide based on real world data unlike the data used by modern climate scientists of ignoring empirical data because it seldom gives the required answer and relying completely on output from mathematical models which are fed 'adjusted data.'
However the NSIDC says the findings are consistent with observations that Antarctica sea ice extent is “highly variable”. Last year, a group of American geographers and statisticians examined historical observations of Antarctica sea ice extent and found “statistically significant” positive trends since 1979. Furthermore, these trends are consistent across all four seasons compared with “statistically significant decreases” throughout much of the early and middle 20th Century.
One of the sources quoted by the FT article came from a report commissioned by the Net Zero obsessed U.K. Government. Lead author Professor Martin Siegert from the University of Exeter claims he is “staggered by the amount of change we’ve seen already in the past few years”. Boggart Blog says Siegert is talking bollocks and he knows it. Meaningful records of Antarctica sea ice levels only begin in 1979, but it is more than likely that, like ice in the Arctic, it waxes and wanes on a natural cyclical basis.
Not so long ago the Warmageddonists were predicting the end of life on earth because the coral on Australia's Great Barrier Reef was dying, which naturally they insisted was due to climate change. But now, even though they claim global warming is out of control, data from recent observations shows that the Great barrier Reef coral is recovering rapidly. The same thing happened a few years ago when the Warmageddonists were wailing and gnashing their teeth over the imminent extinction of polar bears. A few years later it was revealed by naturalists that polar bear numbers had been increasing and the species was doing very well. This blog speculated that less polar bears had been seen for a while because they were fed up of being harassed bu climate scientists they moved to more repote parts of the arctic.
But like the Great Barrier Reef coral and the polar bear population, the politically-inspired alarmists cry wolf when statistics show a drop, but quietly ignore the story move on to pick the next cherry when numbers recover. Even though carbon dioxide is well mixed over the entire southern hemisphere, the small contribution made by humans is somehow held responsible, while cyclical changes offer the opportunity for Greta Thunberg-style contributions to climate science knowledge.
All the Antarctic ice shelves that are reportedly breaking up survived greater warming experienced during the Mediaeval Warm Period, the Roman Warm Period, the Minoan Warm Period and the Holocene Climate Optimum. What is different now? Could it be that the ice shelves have failed structurally because of the huge weight of ice that has built up behind or the millennia along with the pushing and pulling of the moon? Or is it because of, or and, the numerous aircraft landing and taking off and the seismic studies that use explosives?
Doomsters like Prof. Siegert seem to exist in a perpetual state of confuddlement around ordinary climatological cycles that were described in detail decades before the climate change circus performers put up their big tent. Now it is stating to look as if their tricks and stunts have been rumbled and more people are becoming sceptical about all these predictions that never seem to materyialise.
As The Kinks song Death Of A Clown puts it:
The old fortune teller lies dead on the floor
Nobody needs fortunes told anymore
If the climate scientists can't either up their game or admit they have overstated the likely effects of perfectly natural fluctuations in climate conditions, soon all that will be left of their circus is the clown show.