In 2023/24 the Ukrainian military started a campaign against infrastructure in Russia. Several refineries were hit by drones and went up into flames. Gasoline production in Russia was falling significantly and export of gasoline had to be stopped for a while.
The Russians retaliated by renewing their own campaign against Ukraine's electricity network. But this time the targets were not just switching stations but the generation facility themselves. With better aircraft, better missiles and a better control and command structure this was far more effective than Ukraines effort. The non-nuclear electricity production in Ukraine almost wiped out.
In its daily briefings the Russian Ministry of Defense called the attacks on Ukrainian electricity stations a direct retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on Russian proper. For example:
This morning, in response to the Kiev regime's attempts to damage objects of Russian power infrastructure and economy, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation delivered a group strike by long-range precision weaponry at objects of the Ukrainian military-industrial infrastructure and AFU aviation bases.
With their generation capacity in danger and under the threat of blackouts the Ukrainian government got to its senses - at least for a while. Secret negotiations were arranged in Doha, Qatar, to stop the infrastructure attacks on both sides.
In August 2024, shortly after the Ukrainian army had launched an incursion into the Kursk oblast of Russia, the Washington Post reported that Ukraine and Russia were due to send delegations to Doha, Qatar this to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.
But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and
meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials.
Ukraine had to pay a heavy price for the Kursk incursion. The elite troops it had sent failed to reach their target, a nuclear power station near Kursk, and soon got decimated. The attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure continued with full force.
Three months later, with the Kursk incursion as well as its electricity network near to total failure, the Ukrainian government is again changing course. It is begging to renew the deals it had botched. The Financial Times reported (paywalled): Russia putting an end to aerial attacks on Ukrainian energy targets and cargo ships could pave the way for negotiations to end the war, Ukrainian president has sVolodymyr Zelenskyy told journalists in Kyiv on Monday. “When it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, getting a result on these points would be a signal that Russia may be ready to end the war”.
Russia has never refused to engage with Ukraine on various initiatives but will not compromise its interests in any negotiations, President Putin said on October 24 in an address to the BRICS summit. "We have always maintained that Russian interests must be respected in any agreement," he stressed.
Ukraine
has approached Russia twice with proposals through Turkish mediation
but subsequently walked back its initiatives. "When we agreed, it turned
out that the Ukrainian side had already withdrawn. This happened
twice," he revealed. We know this is true because on one occasion, when the two sides were set to meet under the chairmanship of Turkish President Erdogan, The Biden Administration, using UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson as their errand boy, sent word to Ukraine that on no account were they to negotiate with Russia on anything not approved by the USA. That was in April 2022 and the war could have ended then.
At the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presented new proposals for dialogue with Kiev regarding shipping in the Black Sea and "some other issues," Putin said.
According to him, it is too early to determine what Russia and Ukraine can agree on, as no detailed talks between Moscow and Kiev have yet taken place. "I would prefer not to go into specifics right now, as no detailed negotiations are underway, while the opponents back away," Putin added.
"Moscow does not rule out compromises on its part as long as they are rational," the Russian leader was further quoted in RT as saying.
If Moscow and Kyiv agreed to end strikes on their respective energy infrastructures, it would be a significant step towards de-escalating the conflict, Zelenskyy said in reference to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries.
Well - he could have had that deal three month ago. Now it will be more difficult to achieve it. A total retreat of Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region will be the minimum prerequisite Russia will ask for to renew the talks.
Zelenski also says he wants to renew the Black Sea agreement. A Washington Post report this week reminded that:
Ukrainian and Russian officials haven’t met face to face for talks since the first months of the war, when delegations from both sides convened for secret talks in Istanbul. Those negotiations eventually fell apart. Later, the two sides agreed to a grain deal that led to Russia temporarily lifting a naval blockade, allowing Ukraine to transfer grain through the Black Sea. That, too, collapsed months later when Russia pulled out of the deal.
The Black Sea deal included a western promise to not hinder Russian exports through the Black Sea. That hindrance however continued as insurance for freighters continued to be denied. Ukrainian attacks on Russia's Black Sea fleet also continued. Russia pulled out of the deal and reestablished its rather leaky blockade of Ukrainian ports.
Earlier this week Zelensky floated his own plan of initial compromise which could be the basis of talks. He told journalists in Kiev that both sides should mutually agree on halting all aerial attacks on energy targets and cargo ships, and that this could pave the way for negotiations to end the war. Unfortunately the diminutive clown quickly returned to demanding nuclear weapons and immediate NATO membership for Ukraine the following day, demonstratng again that nothing he says can be taken seriously.
After seeing western mainstream media push the Kursk incursion as
"Putins downfall" in exactly the same way as they pushed 2023's summer offensive as the sure and certain defeat of Russia, after which the people would rise up and overthrow Putin, and reading or hearing almost every day in the first two years of the conflict that Ukraine was winning and Russi, out of weapons, men and money was on the verge of collapse it is diffucult to believe any reports on the sitiation from western sources. So we should work on the assuption that any possible direct negotiations between the two sides will again be stymied by the USA and NATO.
While all civilised and compassionate people hope for an early settlement to end the slaughter on both sides, it is difficult to see Uncle Sam and NATO, having invested so heavily in the proxy war giving up the "win" just so Ukrainian civilians can have enough electricity, heat and food during the winter seems like a non-starter.
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