/The Zelensky fan club in the west proclimed the destruction of this bridge as the decisive action but within hours Russian military engineers had installed a pontoon bridge to reopen the route (Picture: Screenshot via GB News)
The Ukrainian incursion into the Russian province of Kursk was always the act of a bunch of lunatics, which is what this blog has always believed the Kiev regime are. So far Russia's response has been to draw a large group of well trained fighting men deep into Russian territory, while bombarding the atackers with heavy artillery fire and atacking the /ukrainian supply line / retreat route. The final outcome for the Ukies is inevitably even worse than commentators in western media are prepared to speculate.
What is more, rather than being a ploy to gain bargaining chips in any future peace negotations as is being claimed, the action, like the US / NATO intervention in the Turkish brokered peace talks in April 2022, has destroyed an oportunity to initiate negotiations for a settement.
Throughout this conflict, while western leaders have done all in their power to prolong the conflict, the Ukie leadership have displayed reptillian stupidity in matters of military and political strategy.
Over the last six months, in revenge for Ukrainian attacks inside Russia's borders and specifically on Russian energy infrastructure, especially oil refineries, Russian forces in Donbas have inflicted serious damage on Ukraine's electricity network. Nearly every power generation plant in Ukraine has been damaged. Half of Ukraine's total 18 Gigawatts of electricity generation capacity has been disabled. Without power and heating it looks like being a very difficult winter for many Ukrainians.
Recently there has been talk from both sides about stopping the destruction of the opponent's infrastructure. An agreement about it was in the making and was possible. But, as Washington Post reports, the Ukrainian attack on Kursk blew it apart:
Ukraine and Russia were set to send delegations to Doha this month to negotiate a landmark agreement halting strikes on energy and power infrastructure on both sides, diplomats and officials familiar with the discussions said, in what would have amounted to a partial cease-fire and offered a reprieve for both countries.But the indirect talks, with the Qataris serving as mediators and meeting separately with the Ukrainian and Russian delegations, were derailed by Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region last week, according to the officials.
...
The diplomat familiar with the talks said that Qatar has been discussing the arrangement for an energy strike moratorium with Kyiv and Moscow for the past two months. The official said the two sides agreed to a summit in Doha with just minor details left to be worked out.“After Kursk, the Russians balked,” another person familiar with the talks said.
Instead the Ukie's senseless attack on Kursk which is nothing more than a typical Zelensky stunt, probably aimed at persuading his western pals that its worth spaffing $billions more on weapons, ammunition and cash aid, Ukraine could have had an agreement that would have saved the thousands of lives that will and have already been sacrificed in this act of madness, and make it possible for Ukraine's people to get through the winter without many blackouts and other interruptions. Zelensky and his bosses blew that chance for the sake of a stupid act of political theatre that never had a snowball in hell's chance of succeeding..
The morale boost for Ukrainian forces created by the attack on Kursk is already waning, front line troops are close to mutiny because they have been thrown into anotherr meat gridger situation. Russia has not pulled any of its troops involved in gaining more territory on the eastern front to defend Kursk. Instead reserves have been pulled from elsewhere. As there was never any hope of holding the territory they claim to have taken, the aims of the Kursk incursion is not happening and the stunt has failed.
Ukraine's attack was only made possible their by pulling troops for the eastern frontline. Moreover artillery supplies, which were already problematic,, the New York Times reports have become even scarcer:
Soldiers fighting in the Donetsk region said they had been buoyed by the incursion into Russia. But they also said it would use up weapons and ammunition that they crucially need. One commander stationed at a hot spot on the eastern front said his brigade had fewer than four mortar guns to defend its position, and could fire only 10 shells a day per mortar.
Each day the Ukraine is losing more ground in the east. Meanwhile its Kursk incursion has already stalled, the main force is pinned down by artillery and Ukrainian troops will face a deadly struggle to get back across the border.
What may happen next? Russia could hammer all of Ukraine obviously, but the stakes are too high for direct NATO confrontation. That is to say Russia will estimate that the potential losses are not worth what little might be gained, because it would then likely face a more powerfully armed front along with all the argument of Russian expansion into Europe.
If Russia tried to claim all of Ukraine it would remain just that, if it damaged the infrastructure more than necessary it would just be seen as brutal so Russia has taken a moderate stance based on understandable territorial claims, expecting the west to show reason and with Russia looking to reach an understanding or acceptance of that reality.
The Kremlin must have known the introduction of the conflict was obvious enough to give the west has motive for an ongoing hostility but seems to have underestimated how many Ukrainian lives Washington and NATO were prepared to sacriice in the hop of achieving regime change in Moscow.
From a western point of view incursion into Russia could only be meant to insult Russia and tarnish the reputation of Putin and maybe to provoke a response that would provide justification for direct military involvement. As things stand, until the west decides to accept a peace, it must continue to support its proxy in conflict. After witnessing the length of the cold war, then this new contest could become a feature for half a century or more. I think Russia does not expect reason and logic to feature in any response from the west and so will simply hold its ground and shrug the rest off.The peace is a trade off in recognitions, which is one reason some in the west have dificulty. For example, to accept the current border would mean some western powers are going to come away looking like responsible for the conflict - because that could have been achieved before by guaranteeing Ukrainian neutrality before the Russian invasion.
Equally there is the 'rules based order' which the west interprets as being respecting national borders and sovereignty, but including allowable pre-emptive criteria for trespass of its own choosing - so making a joke of the concept, a joke that has so far cost millions of lives and caused much misery. At least Putin's transgression was based on visible defense of a population under attack, on territory, and with population, considered a traditional and cohesive part of Russia wheras the west's military interventions have been motivated by seeking economic or strategic advantage.
So it just goes on.
No point saying what Putin or Russia should do, instead we should be saying what the west should do now. The answer is obvious enough - accept the peace deal brokered by the Qataris and take whatever steps are needed to stop the pointless slaughter of innocent men and women on both sides.
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