European Leaders Agree To Keep Throwing Good Money After Bad Into The Ukraine Cash Incinerator

 

 During the last 80 years European leaders never had to think strategically about their own nations' security. The U.S. and USSR did that for them. However, their shock at the implosion in the Oval Office last week is more an indictment of their ineptitude than any perfidy by Trump. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s history lessons to Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance as he tried to convince his hosts there could only be peace with Russia on HIS terms reeked of condescension to his moneybag-in-chief. Thus it is not remarkable tht Trump brought the noisy puppy to heel by threatening to cut off military and financial aid. And suddenly Zelensky was prpared to sign Trump's minerals for weapons deal.

As Thucydides noted long ago, notions of right and justice only govern relations among equals. For others, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”.

The sight of Zelensky in his battle dress attire even in the most formal settings has also been a regular turn-off. He should always have restricted this performative gesture to when he is in his own country.

The kerfuffle in The Oval Office left European leaders doing the headless chicken dance while panicking about how to stop Putin and punish him for the Ukraine invasion. But for America, Ukraine is as Trump said, ‘separated from America by a big beautiful ocean’. Most Americans probably didn’t even know where Ukraine was until Russia invaded. And the fate of faraway, insignificant Ukraine is not of any strategic importance to the US. Instead, America’s key strategic challenge is curbing the rise of a militaristic, increasingly aggressive China. America may be playing the 21^st century’s version of ‘the Great Game’.

The Great Game was a rivalry between the 19th-century British and Russian empires over influence in Central Asia, primarily in Afghanistan, Persia and Tibet. But the expression has also been applied  to the posturing of the major powers for control of countries and resources in the 20th century.

In the 21st century, ‘the Great Game’ will be played mainly between the US and an increasingly hungry and belligerent China. The Chinese are not just a threat to American power, they are also colonising many other countries such as Australia and New Zealand and large parts of Africa. Moreover, China is a threat to Russia’s resource-rich, underpopulated Far East. What the Trump administration may have realised is that China not Russia is the real enemy and that, as Russians may have more in common with the USA and Europe than with the Chinese, that now is the time to loosen Russia’s ties with (subordination to?) China and recruit Russia into the anti-Chinese camp. Vladimir Putin certainly knows this.

One way to neutralise China's progress is to encourage Russia to reconnect with the West. If that means reopening trade links with Russia and largely abandoning Ukraine, then so be it. That’s realpolitik.

The sensitive pearl-clutchers will shout and scream that Putin is a kleptocrat, tyrant and murderous dictator who should not be rewarded for his aggression. But during WWll, the West made an alliance with Stalin who had killed 20million to 30million innocents including around 4million Ukrainians in the Holodomor.

The catastrophists just can't help but resort to wailing and gnashing of teeth over the latest imagined eistential threat. COVID, Climate Change, a far right resurgence  They walk amongst us crying Doomed, we;re all doomed, oblivious to the way their behaviour is controlled and manipulated by the drip, drip of propaganda spread by governments and MSM, the effects of which are insidious and effective over extended periods of time.

Thankfully, Trump seems to be dialling down the belligerence against China and Russia. Is he a head-in-the-clouds idealogue or a hard-nosed, pragmatic businessman leading his country in a way guided by experience and common sense?

He may seem to some a thin-skinned, overly vain, sensitive, vindictive man who shouldn't be in charge of a hot dog stall. Personally, I think that having survived a campaign of lawfare, media smear and three assassination attempts over more than 8 years, he would be entirely justified in that behaviour. I do, however, believe none of that to be true.

In 2023 President Xi of China declared that the world will change more in the following 5 years than it has in the last 100 years.

Trump, Putin, Xi and to a slightly lesser extent, Modi, seem determined to carve the world up into sphere's of influence. Sounds scary, but as almost everything else has been tried this might at least offer the respective regions to meaningfully organise trade and defence in a logical, practical manner with social, ethnic and cultural boundaries respected by all parties.

Where does Western Europe and the UK sit in all this? Well - it doesn't. The EU had its chance but chose authoritarian globalism to free trade and universal prosperity. Within ten years it is likely there will be no EU, eastern nation may fall under Russia's sphere of influence and, vitally, protection.

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It would be wise for the UK to declare absolute neutrality and to refrain, like Austria, from joining any alliance. Its army, based on a short conscription of every men, should be stationed and act only within its own borders.

That done it would be time to launch a new Concert of Europe (incl. Russia): AKA The Westphalian system:

... a general agreement among the great powers of 19th-century Europe to maintain the European balance of power, political boundaries, and spheres of influence. Never a perfect unity and subject to disputes and jockeying for position and influence, the Concert was an extended period of relative peace and stability in Europe following the Wars of the French Revolution and the Napoleonic Wars which had consumed the continent since the 1790s.

The last concert did not keep the continent at total peace but it prevented crises from escalating beyond narrowly defined borders. In that respect it lasted from 1820 up to the start of the first World War.

To conduct such a concert would probably require another Prince Metternich or Otto von Bismark. There is however no such person in sight.Macron and Starmer both fancy themselves as world leaders but due to unanswered questions about their personal lives it's likely they would be diverted from their duties by the favt that they fancy each other.

The EU bureaucracy in Brussels has neither legitimacy nor competence in inner-European or international security issues.

Don't count on it when NATO is out.

That doesn't mean the entire continent will be ruled from Moscow, the years between he break up of the Soviet Union and the 2014 Maiden coup in Ukraine showed Russia would rather be in the European tent pissing out, that the eternal bogey man. It means that independent nation states, with Russian, UK and French protection (if UK and France can put together coherent defence policies instead of focusing on virtue signalling,) will be free to manage their own countries and with a combined population of around 700M the continent has the co-operative financial heft to grow manufacturing, technology and defence industries to compete with the America's (North and South) China, Africa, India and the Middle East.

Let's face it, could things be much worse than the last 4 years of Biden and European globalists taking us to the brink of nuclear Armageddon. Personally, I rather like the idea of Europe and Russia becoming relaible allies being that we are all Ino - Caucasian nations with a culture not too far removed from each othere. Perhaps we could learn from Russia how to protect our own borders.

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