Throughout the past few months Russian forces have been conducting mass missile and drone strikes against Ukraine targeting, with considerable success according to reasonably reliable sources (nobody truly knows the full situation of the conflict, tht is the nature of war,) while the Ukrainian air defense troops claim they have intercepted and destroyed the majorityof the bombardment and sometimes even claim they have destroyed more missiles and drones than the Russians have launched according to data from United Nations sataeelite data.
After yesterday's wave of strikes which once again inflicted damage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure Ukrainian media repeated such claims:
Russia's largest attack: Ukraine's defence forces destroy over 200 out of 236 Russian missiles and drones - Ukrainska Pravda
Russia launched 236 aerial weapons on Ukraine on Monday, 26 August. Ukraine's air defence downed 102 missiles and 99 attack drones.Source: Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, on social media.
...
All available weapons and equipment were used to repel the air attack: aircraft, anti-aircraft missile troops of the Air Force, mobile fire groups of the Ukrainian defence forces, and electronic warfare units. A total of 201 air targets were shot down in the air combat: 102 missiles and 99 attack UAVs:
- 1 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile;
- 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile;
- 1 Kh-22 cruise missile;
- 99 Kh-101, Kalibr cruise missiles, and Kh-59/69 guided missiles;
- 99 Shahed-131/136 attack UAVs.
This adds up to a claimed success rate of 80.3% against missiles and 90.8% against drones.
These numbers are fantasy.
The highest strke rate Ukraine could feasibly achieve is probably around 20-25 % (colonel Trukhan cited his expert sources of air defense).
80% of missiles could be the best case scenario, something RUAF could achieve (well, higher), where the trajectory is more-or-less known (not the case in Ukraine where missiles and drones can take rather long detours and approach from unexpected angles, with IRIS-T, Patriot or NASAMS systems then pointing in wrong direction).
Nato radar aircraft from Poland, Romania or Black Sea have tough time covering low flying missiles, let alone drones. Ukraine has to use their air defense radars to scan the low altitudes to see these missiles, which carries a high potential of RUAF discovering and hitting the radar. And there were reports of radars being struck among the attack few days ago.
The number of impacts by incoming missiles registered by locals is a more reliable source to go
by, and those amateur observers have filled a long list with information on many hits on strategic targets. After the several waves of attacks
there remained reports of BDA drones circling the central and eastern
portions of Ukraine. Will Russia launch an immediate follow-up strike is
now the question. Much of the Ukie electrified railway system has been knocked
out, and likely needs further degrading; same with the electrical power
system. Also, the boasting of having neutralized the Black Sea Fleet was
proven to be just that, as many missiles have been launched at the flotilla, but very few have struck targets. How much damage has been inflivted on \russian warships is unclear, but most of those ships are still active and firing on Ukie targets.
Source: Moon of Alabama
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