by Ati Al'Reet, 17 December 2024
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria took everyone by surprise. The sheer speed of the government's collapse as an entire army walked away from the ragge - taggle gang of jihadi rag heads driving at high speed south in some very modern and expensive looking military vehicles (possibly supplied by tge USA and its NATO allies via crooked Ukrainian oligarchs,) and meeting little resistance until they reached Damascus, was stunning.
But who are the winners and losers? Does this now weaken Iran thus tempting the U.S. and Israel to take a second shot at it? Or will Israel now target Iran’s allies in the region now that the Shia Crescent no longer has a lifeline highway which can be used to supply Hezbollah in Lebanon?
All of these questions remain unanswere as we start to hear of atrocities carried out by HTS (the terrorist group formerly known as Al Nusra and now hailed by western leaders as moderte freedom fighters,) against Syrian Christians, Jews, Alawite, Yazidi and Druze minorities we must wait to find out whether these jihadists from Idlib have the political skills to feather their own beds with regional players. Perhaps within Syria, it might be harder as already, at the time or writing, the HTS is already fighting key towns in the north which are controlled by Turkey’s main foe, the PKK, or should we say the YPG as it is known – the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) which is largely made up of Kurds, with a minority of Syrian army defectors thrown into the mix.
HTS are also engaged in eastern Syria with the remnants of ISIS and various other rebel groups each trying to grab their own bit of the disintegrating nation.
The clash in the north now is interesting as the Kurds own the key part of Syria
which has both the oil and the best agricultural land. Surely, one would
argue that Jolani will now move to kick out the Kurds, even though
their backers – the USA – are his as well. It is often the case that
rival groups in Syria who are both on Uncle Sam’s payroll fight one
another. But the scale of this potential conflict is huge and should not
be underestimated.
Syria is flat broke. Its economy is tatters as a result of yers of western backed civil war and economic sanctions, with
government soldiers only earning 7 USD a month in local Syrian
pounds, probably one of the world’s most devalued currency in the last
decade. interesting
More interesting is the way it was a Turkish leader often despised by U.S. officials who took the place of the Saudis and Emiratis who, in 2006, just after the embarrassing 34 day war in Lebanon which gave Israel a bloody nose, assured Dick Cheney that America would never be seen to be actually funding the most brutal terror group in the Middle East to fight its dirty wars.
America, under Obama, actually gave Al
Quada, ISIS and its affiliates hundreds of millions of dollars to fight
Assad once the CIA had officially given approval to the plan to topple the Syrian dictator in 2014. It was actually U.S. government policy to overthrow Assad
with Syria always seen, even back then, as the weakest link in Iran’s
sphere of power and influence. More significant of course is that Obama is a (closet) Sunni Muslim, the Syrian regime were Alawites, and as is always the case with religious fanatics, the worst crime in the eyes of a Sunni zealot is not to be a non - Muslim but to be the wrong sort of Muslim.
The downfall of Assad is most significant, in terms of salient points it raises, or myths it debunks, for the fact that western media will no longer be able to ignore the Westsern bankrolling of the most gruesome, horrific terrorists in the world while standing in line with the Charlie Hebdo funeral procession and condemning the Ariana Grande Manchester concert bomb. Despite mainstream media putting in a sterling effort in an interview with former Al Qaeda hit man Jolani to sanitise his past and present him as an enlightened secular leader, the cat is out of the bag.
It’s really about relationships. How to keep them, how to win new ones and how to lose them.
Ironically, it was Assad in the end who was the weakest link. He refused to have his army trained both by the Russians and then later by the Iranians. He decided that his longevity was via Israel, and so cozied up to the UAE who helped him with the lobbying in DC which some believe was working. Assad was actually trying to make himself the spy who came in from the cold with his Washington contacts rather than stay with the Russians and the Iranians. Given that it was Russia who saved him from a humiliating defeat in 2015 when most western hacks were already writing his eulogy, perhaps there is a lesson there for regional leaders.
But most leaders don’t learn lessons. In recent years relations between Assad and Erdogan swung from one high point to the other. Assad could have worked with Erdogan on destroying the SDF and take back the territory. There was an offer there. Yet Assad was blinded by his own dogma and vanity which is perhaps the key point which he has in common with Erdogan.
The Turkish leader now must reevaluate himself and his country. On the one hand, he has earned a great many points with both the U.S. and Israel, the latter being an arch enemy which has served his political narrative for some time, particularly recently. Does Erdogan now fulfil his dream of having a government in Damascus which is made up of Ottoman type functionaries and the same ideology? Or do both Israel and the U.S. now cast Erdogan aside thinking they have no longer any use for him, a move, in itself which would spark a full-scale civil war in Syria between these two main players.
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