Pundits Said It could Not Happen: Trump Now Tied With Hillary In Latest National Poll

The Experts have developed a habit of being wrong in their predictions about the progress of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. Following Trump's not yet official victory in the contest for the Republican nomination, the consensus among mainstream media commentators was that loudmouth businessman would "never" be able to catch up to Hillary's support at the national level". This too now appears to have been a mistake.

According to the Reuters/Ipsos poll released earlier today, Donald Trump's support has surged since his competitors, too far behind in numbers of delegates won to have any realistic chance of overtaking him, quit the race and he is now statistically tied (the 1% difference is withing the margin of error) with Democrat Hillary Clinton among U.S. voters, in what Reuters describes as "a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party's presumptive presidential nominee."

In the survey (charts linked above), 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent as yet undecided. The poll had an error marging of plus or minus 3 percentage points suggesting that it is possible that Trump may have already overtaken Hillary nationally.

What makes the reversal particularly notable is that as recently as last week, Mrs Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll. With more negative publicity attaching itself to Hillary and her campaign every week as the scandals refuse to go away, it is possible Donald Trump has already overtaken her and will continue to gather momentum as he did in the Republican primaries campaign.

Surprisingly perhaps, according to deeper analysis of the poll, nearly half of Bernie Sanders' supporters are willing to cast their vote for Trump compared to only a quarter for Hillary, in what is shaping up as a presidential election in which it is not so important that the winning candidate will not be the one who is most liked, but least disliked.

As this blog has said since January, the success of Sanders and Trump was not due primarily to their policies or personal qualities (although by political standards Bernie seems to be an honest man,) but to the fact that they were anti - establishment candidates and rode the wave of anger and repugnance voters feel towards the cosy, self serving consensus of the political establishment.

The results signal that a close fight is shaping up between the two White House rivals as the campaigns get very dirty. More importantly perhaps, it promises a lot of entertainment because the "debates" between Hillary and Trump (who reputedly hate each other) will surely break all political TV and media records, even as American society and global influence decay like Dracula on a sunny day.

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