Prof Neil Ferguson : pointy - headed science (Image: www.blazingcatfur.ca )
Regular readers may recall this blog was among the first to expose the fact that the pandemic model predicting 500,000 COVID - 19 deaths if the entire nation was not placed under indefinite house arrest was based on a deeply flawed mathematical model of the pandemic built by a "scientist" at Imperial College, London, a college heavily reliant on funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation. You may also recall we have reported on the determination of psychopathic megalomaniac Gates to insert himself into this phoney crisis with a plan worthy of Dr. Evil himself, to implant an RFID chip in everybody so our movements can be tracked and we can be arrested if we have any contact with unchipped people. OK, I might be exaggerating for dramatic effect there, but only a tiny bit.
Ironically the Neil Ferguson, the Professor whose prediction was used by Prime Minister Boris Johnson to justify Britain’s seemingly endless lockdown is now known to bebased on such badly designed software that it is ‘somewhere between negligence and grave scientific misconduct’, a real computer expert has warned. Ferguson has a long track record for using similarly flawed mathematical models to produce highly dramatic but unscientific perdictions as is described in the above link. Virologist and clinical computational epidemiologist Chris Von Csefalvay is just the latest of many expert to scrutinise Ferguson’s influential Imperial College study – the one that predicted more than 500,000 deaths in the UK alone from the Chinese coronavirus pandemic, and find similarly sloppy programming methods to those which predicted the swine flu "pandemic" of 2009, the Ebola outbreak of 2014 and several other similar non - events would result in humanitarian catastrophes. Ferguson was also responsible for advising Tony Blair's government in 2001 that millions of animals on farms where no infection had been discovered was necessary to avert the spread of foot and mouth disease from cloven hoofed animals to other species including humans.
And it was Ferguson who predicted 150,000 deaths from Mad Cow Disease (Bovine Spongeform Encephalitis, in fact only around 200 have died of that particular existential threat to humanity since 1991.
Von Csefalvay was as profoundly unimpressed with Ferguson's modelling methods as the rest of us were by the news that the cuntstruck COVID Czar had advised the lockdown so his married lover would not be delayed by traffic when she drove down to visit him for rumpy pumpy. In a Review of The Imperial College research on his website Bits and Bugs, he notes that while initial supportive of Ferguson and his modelling, having seen the coding for the model which he says ‘raises some extremely serious questions,’ he is now of the opinion that the model is not worse than useless, it is even worse than that, having been built to guarantee a false result. The coding quality, he says, is poor:
First of all, the elephant in the room: code quality. It is very difficult to look at the Ferguson code with any understanding of software engineering and conclude that this is good, or even tolerable
Yet that shoddy research and the outrageously hyperbolic result it produced has been gulped down hook line and sinker by scientifically naive and gullible politicians who tend to fall to their knees in an attitude of worship when someone who claims to be "a scientist" offers them advice. Someone like Boris Johnsin in particular, but also his old Etonian cronies and even Sir Kier Starmer, an alumini of the expensive Reigate Grammar School for pos kids from rich families, who all receibed education based on the Renaissance model which teaches us to question everything and always think for ourselves, should have known better than treat it with such credulousness. Von Csefalvay has obviously retained the scepticism instilled by his education, he writes:
Yet for some reason, the UK government treated Ferguson’s model as almost dogmatic truth. This highlights an important issue: politicians have not been taught enough about data-driven decision-making, especially not where predictive data is involved. There is wide support for a science-driven response to COVID-19, but very little scrutiny of the science behind many of the predictions that informed early public health measures. Hopefully, a Royal Commission with subpoena powers will have the opportunity to review in detail whether Ferguson intentionally hid the model from HM Government the way he hid it from the rest of the world or whether the government’s experts just did not understand how to scrutinise or assess a model – or, the worst case scenario: they saw the model and still let it inform what might have been the greatest single decision HM Government has made since 1939, without looking for alternatives (there are many other modelling approaches, and many developers who have written better code)
He concludes that it will result in:
…a massive leap backwards, erosion of trust and a complete disclaimer of accountability by publicly funded scientists.
Von Csefalvay is not the only well qualified epidemiologist to give vent to his disgust at Ferguson's ineptitude.
Another review, by Craig Pirrong, Professor of Finance and Energy Markets Director of the Global Energy Management Institute at the Bauer College of Business, University of Houston, concludes:
“Models only become science when tested against data/experiment. By that standard, the Imperial College model failed spectacularly.”
Going back decades, Ferguson’s track record had been widely criticised (sic), as reported:
Delingpole: Ferguson’s Dodgy Model Has Engendered a World-Historical Blunder
Despite all this, Boris Johnson and his Cabinet colleagues continue to cite Ferguson’s discredited study as if it were the gold standard of scientific research.
Boris even mentioned it in his speech on Sunday night when, attempting to justify the continuation of the lockdown, he claimed:
It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst-case scenario was half a million fatalities.
Interesting use of the word ‘fact’ in that sentence, showing that Boris is illing to accept the word of a "scientist" about what constitutes a fact because "scientists," like medieval popes are infallible; a folly which, were there a credible opposition with a charismatic leader, would see the government struggling even with its massive majority.
RELATED POSTS:
As We Predicted The Coronavirus bill Is The Biggest Assault On Freedom Since World War 2
Things have gone so far beyond what a rational response to an outbreak of a highly contagious but for most people relatively minor illness that I am starting to believe the conspiracy theories. Along with my fellow Boggart Bloggers I predicted weeks ago the current outbreak of the so - called coronavirus would see a massive hyping of the threat level leading up to an assault on our freedoms. And that is exactly what we have seen happening over the past week.
The Coronavirus Response Is The Biggest Assault On Freedom Since World War 2
Things have gone so far beyond what can be considered a rational response to an outbreak of a highly contagious but for most people relatively minor illness that I am starting to believe even the conspiracy theories I know I made up myself. Boggart Bloggers predicted weeks ago the current outbreak of coronavirus would see a massive hyping of the threat level leading up to an assault on our freedoms ...
Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research
The scientist whose mathematical models of how the coronavirus would spread in the UK and the wildly exaggerated estimates of how many deaths might result from the epidemic reportedly led to the decision to implement a countrywide lockdown and trash the economy has been criticised in the past for flawed research.
Has The World Health Organisation Been Helping Chinese Coronavirus Cover Up
Many people suspected as far back as January, when stories about an epidemic of a new virus began to leak out of China that we were not and would not be told the whole story. The virus infecting thousands of Chinese in the large inland city of Wuhan was, we learned, a strain of corona virus, the genre that infects us with the common cold, influenza and a host of other infections of varying seriousness.
Coronavirus deaths: Are The Authorities Deceiving Us?Yesterday we reported that a Canadian outfit had carried out an analysis of China’s response to Coronavirus and concluded that while politicians and academics (aka “scientists” or “experts”) are heaping praise on the way the regime in Beijing has contained and controlled its epidemic, the Chinese have actually been lying, the epidemc is still raging and numbers of infections and deaths from COVID – 19 are far higher than reported,
Is This The Smoking Gun That Proves China Has Lied About The Coronavirus Outbreak
With the number of confirmed cases of, and deaths from coronavirus in Italy, a nation of 63 million people having now surpassed the number of infections officially admitted by the government of China, a nation of 1.4 billion and the nation where the news strain of coronavirus, COVID – 19 was first observed, it was obvious to the realists among us that the Chinese government’s claims to have contained the virus were deeply suspect and further claims that the outbreak were under control were as reliable as reported sightings of The Tooth Fairy ...
As We Predicted The Coronavirus bill Is The Biggest Assault On Freedom Since World War 2
Things have gone so far beyond what can be considered a rational response to an outbreak of a highly contagious but for most people relatively minor illness that I am starting to believe even the conspiracy theories I know I made up myself. Along with my fellow Boggart Bloggers I predicted weeks ago the current outbreak of the so - called coronavirus would see a massive hyping of the threat level leading up to an assault on our freedoms. And that is exactly what we have seen happening over the past week.
Germany’s Official State TV Channel Cheers Coronavirus For Killing Old People
Trawling around the weirder fringes of the web, as we bloggers and cyberjournalists are sometimes obliged to if we want to bring you the news the mainstream will not report, one occasionally comes across something important but disturbing – like being brought face – to – face with how sick and warped the far left ecopsychos really are. Take a sketch recently broadcast as part of a satirical show the title of which translates as Bohemian Browser Ballet, shown by German state broadcaster ARD.
UK To Ask Citizens Over 70 To Self - Isolatate For 4 MONTHS As Coronavirus Fails To Kill Zillions
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock today confirmed the government plans to ask people aged over 70 to isolate themselves for up to four months amid a coronavirus pandemic. The goal is to protect them.
It's quite obvious to us, experienced bloggers that we are, that the government, civil service, law encorgement and national security agencies and all the assorted experts and talking heads have forgotten the lesson our generation learned from The Hitch Hiker's Guide To The Galaxy ...
Coronavirus: EU States Rebel Against Brussels As Van Leyen Demands Borders Stay Open
The cracks in European solidarity are growing deeper by the day as the coronavirus crisis threatens to split the bloc. The response of European leaders has varied from panic, as several member-states have takeen unilateral action including severe border closures, to a laissez - fair attidude, notably from France's idiot president Emmanuel Macron who favours total inaction, having said complacently that viruses don't recognise borders.
US John Hopkins University Prof Says Don't Believe Corona Virus Numbers
The number of confirmed cases outside of China roughly tripled once again this week, and if this outbreak continues to escalate at this pace there will be more than a million confirmed cases in less than a month. But as bad as the official numbers are, the truth is that there are a whole lot more people walking around out there that have caught the virus but have not been tested.
Is the World Health Organization involved in biological warfare research?
Dr. Francis Boyle, a professor of international law, talked in a recent interview with about the Wuhan coronavirus now sweeping through the far east, laboratory in Wuhan, China, where the genetically modified virus appears to have originated, and the World Health Organization’s (WHO) clandestine involvement in biological warfare research ...
Continue reading
Coronavirus Contains “HIV Insertions”: Claim Stokes Fears Over Genetically Modified BioweaponFor the past two weeks mainstream media reporting of the epidemic of a new strain of coronavirus in China has been getting more and more hysterical. However, reports have pushed back against one "conspiracy theory" about the origins of the virus that has now infected as many as 70,000+ people in the central China city of Wuhan alone (depending on whom you believe).
Corona Virus: Should We Worry
The official data coming out of China and from other sources including the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to suggest an exponential growth rate. With more and more infectious disease experts are now openly calling the virus a full-blown global pandemic, many people are asking should we in the west be worried and how bad might things get?
Coronavirus Contains “HIV Insertions”: Claim Stokes Fears Over Genetically Modified Bioweapon
The theory that China obtained the coronavirus via a Canadian research program, and started molding it into a bioweapon at the Institute of Virology in Wuhan before it somehow escaped could be an attempt by the establishment (the Davosocracy,) to spread fear and panic as they see resurgent nationalism across the developed world and growing scepticism about
EU States Rebel Against Brussels As Van Leyen Demands Borders Stay Open
The cracks in European solidarity are growing deeper by the day as the coronavirus crisis threatens to split the bloc. The response of European leaders has varied from panic, as several member-states have taken unilateral action including severe border closures, to a laissez - fair attiTude, notably from France's idiot president Emmanuel Macron who favours total inaction, having said complacently that viruses don't recognise borders.
US John Hopkins University Prof Says Don't Believe Corona Virus Numbers
The number of confirmed cases outside of China roughly tripled once again this week, and if this outbreak continues to escalate at this pace there will be more than a million confirmed cases in less than a month. But as bad as the official numbers are, the truth is that there are a whole lot more people walking around out there that have caught the virus but have not been tested.