Brexit Economic Forecasts Are Nonsense And Pure Scaremongering

The contributors to this blog are fairly solidly opposed to the EU - not just Britain's continued membership of the supranational bureaucratic dictatorship, but to the continuing existence of this pernicious, authoritarian, undemocratic institution per se. We were all happy therefore to see that classical liberal journalist and writer, the estimable Simon Jenkins expose the scaremongering predictions of financial collapse as 'specious'. To be fair, the leave campaign have been prone to exaggeration in their economic forecasts too, but they were put in a position of having to rebut idiotic claims that Britain would not be able to trade with any nations that are EU members and that all foreign investment in Britain would be withdrawn if we vote for Brexit.

Brexit Logon (Image source: theiet.org)

One of the worst culprits in the economic scaremongering aimed at bullying us into voting 'Remain' came from the Institute of Financial Services (IFS), an organisation that receives a significant chunk of its funding from the EU. It would be wrong to accuse them of corrupt practice or of distorting evidence, these people are economics academics and as such are probably so detached from reality they actually believe the unmitigated bollocks they talk. The case is that statistics is not a science but a branch of the dark arts, thus one can find evidence that supports just about any economic hypothesis a hippy on the mother of all acid trips could dream up. Sun-spots affect the price of oranges? Certainly, we have a graph that proves it. Prostitutes' knickers and hysteresis-driven fluctuations in the financial markets? Just check out this spreadsheet. All IFS have done is take the assumptions from many economic studies based on mathematical models of the post industrial economies and apply them to a hypothetical situation that probably takes account of about 4% of the correlative factors it ought to. Or as the aforementioned Simon Jenkins put it nailed in the Evening  Standard.

The Treasury has, for the duration of the referendum campaign, switched from being a respected economic institution to being a lobbyist for Project Fear. Its notorious apocalypse algorithm looked like a schoolboy spoof, with its subscripts and squiggles “proving” Brexit would cost every household £4,300. (Didn’t the Treasury once prove that EU regulation cost households virtually the same?) 
The Treasury thesis appears to be that the shock of Brexit would make Londoners poorer, interest rates higher and deter immigrants and rich foreigners from buying or renting houses in the capital. Prices would therefore fall. That is certainly plausible. Whether this would be a “shock” scenario for most Londoners is surely moot.
We are now entering a world in which economists simply seek predictions to support prejudices. The Treasury assumes that Brexit would lead to a fall in the pound. But surely that would make houses cheaper for foreigners to buy and push at least some prices back up? Why does Osborne not warn of a Brexit “soaring house price shock”?

He specifically trashed Osborne's claim that London house prices would fall by 20%

These imponderables are clearly too great for any sensible person — but not apparently today’s highly politicised Treasury. The wisest remark perhaps comes from Johnny Morris of the estate agent Countrywide, who says simply: “Brexit would be an unprecedented turn of events, with a wide range of possible outcomes.” That is economist-speak for “no one has a clue”. 

So, everyone from blokes in the saloon bar to social commentators have worked out that these economic forecasts are drek. If these experts were even slightly honest they would admit we simply don't know what Brexit would bring, but we can cope with it, we coped with world War two FFS. 

It is gratifying to know that the scaremongering has backfired, particularly that of HM Treasury, which has face a legal rebuke because of its ignoring the impartiality rule on government departments in political matters, and David Cameron, whose inept attempts to use the government to campaign for the Remain side has put his future as Prime Minister on the line. While Brexit campaigners have been comelled to counter the spurious predictions of economic disaster, fortunately the argument for Brexit which was never about economics has swung back to the issues of sovereignty, legislative authority and the authoritarian, undemocratic nature of the EU. It is cowardly, unpatriotic and immoral to allow British sovereignty to be stolen by a gang of profoundly anti-democratic and unelected EU bureaucrats who believe diversity is something to do with the colour of peoples' skin and are intent on imposing cultural, ideological and religious uniformityon the very diverse peoples of the EU's current member nations. This is about preserving  freedom and resisting fascism, not economics.


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