The Daily Sceptic today published an article by retired research scientist James Dent, whose specialist field was hydrology and meteorology. Mr. Dent was involved in research projects aiemd at understanding the factors influencing climate, and their effects on environments, in many parts of the world. He was especially involved in studying the patters leading up to floods and droughts. For a time, he was the World Meteorology Organisation Chief Technical Advisor to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Bangladesh, a low lying nation especially prone to flooding as it is situated in the Ganges / Bramahputra delta region.
The article was initially published in the British Hydrological Society journal Circulation, but was withdrawn almost immediately without a satisfactory explanation.
This excerpt however gives a taster of the problem Dent encountered by positing theories that, while backed by solid research materia, differ from the globalist narrative that climate change, driven by Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activity poses an existential threat to civilisation.
Like the predictions of the progress of Covid, we need to ask what the limitations are to modelling. Too easily the model output is given the status of truth, and quickly becomes unchallengeable. Climate change predictions have been commonplace for at least 25 years, but I recently read an agricultural journalist state that in the future, farmers will have to cope with hotter, drier summers, and warmer, wetter winters, and there will be more extreme events. The message has remained the same, so have we not yet reached the predicted future?
It becomes easy to summarise complicated ideas into sound bites.
Over the last 15 years, I have resigned from two national institutions which have incorporated climate change hypotheses into rigid policy statements. This situation could so easily escalate to the dystopian future depicted in the recently published novel The Denial by Ross Clark.
Like all the ramifications and issues relating to Covid, the danger comes when theoretical projections provide the basis of legislation, or define the stance of particular organisations, while the media presentations rely on throw-away lines and virtue-signalling in reporting.
I can see similar dangers arising from so-called ‘environmental’ policies, such as ceasing river dredging and weed clearance, ‘rewilding’ and abandoning land and road drainage maintenance. Ultimately we could find ourselves regressing to medieval conditions, where roads and marshy areas become impassable in the winter months.
Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University and President (for what it's worth,) of British Hydrological Society (BHS), explained that the paper had been withdrwn because it represented “a personal view from one of our membership that climate change was not a real phenomenon”. She went on to say: “We do not think it is appropriate to provide them with a forum under the BHS logo.”
Fowler went on tyo say that the “climate sceptic” viewpoint did not represent good scholarship in science and we “will be reviewing our governance procedures to make sure that members voices can still be heard, but through the lens of good science”.
By 'good science' she means mathematical modelling of course. In the thirty years or so since the climate scare was launched ALL the evidence that changes in our climate are caused solely by Carbon Dioxide emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activity has been obtained from mathematical modelling rather than good science, i.e. from data gethered by researchers observing and recording conditions in the real world and disovering consistent patters of cause and effect that can be repeatedly demonstrated.
As a wise old computer guy who had worked with Alan Turing in the very early days told me and other young colleagues when I was a traineee programmer / operator back in the early 1970s, "If you torture data enough it will eventually give the answers you want."
And that is how the science of mathematical modelling works.
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Green dreams of Heat Pumps
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from The Daily Telegraph
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Green Dreams Menu
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