1,200 Scientists and Professionals Go Public With: “There is No Climate Emergency”

 

Ever since the distant days of 2005, when the original Boggart Blog was unleashed on the world our little team have been calling out the massive pseudoscientific fraud that has spread the climate change  fallacy, the idea, based almost entirely on data output by mathematical models of the climate, that the predicted climate change catastrophe is the reuslt of Carbon Dioxide emitted into the atmosphere due to human activity, and the equally false claim that the science behind this notion is ‘settled’. 

We have been called conspiracy theorists and worse, accused of being anti - science and described as mass murderers of third world babies, though how our holding opinions that question an official narrative causes anybody's death is as big a mystery as how a trace atmospheric gas (400 parts per million in air) which is not a pollutant and actually is essential to the continuation of life on this planet can cause the kind of vlimate upheaval that is allegedly happening now.

As it happens the narrative  promoting the risible idea that "The Science Is Settled," and a few other trains of pseudoscientific misinformation used to keep ramping up the fear level among the general public have been kicked in the place where it hurts most by the publication of  The World Climate Declaration (WCD) a study and report signed by over 1,100 scientists and professionals. 

The authors, meteorologists, physicists, biologists, naturalists and well qualified people drawn from a host of other professions and academic disciplines and from all around the world conclude there is no climate emergency. The team led by the Norwegian physics Nobel Prize laureate Professor Ivar Giaever comment that climate science can be said to have degenerated into a discussion based on beliefs, not on sound self-critical science.

The scale of the opposition now gathering against this modern day dogma of ‘settled’ climate science is noteworthy, considering that the climate change dogma was the first of the 'unquestionable truths' of this quasi - religious cult of 'Scientism'  that academics found their career, professional reputation and and personal life could be trashed should they dare to question it. Also over the past two decades it has been impossible for those wishing to undertake a critical study of the very dodgy computer models on which the claims are based and compare their predictions to what has actually been happening in the real world to raise grants for any climate research that departs from the political orthodoxy. (A full list of the signatories is available here.) 

Another lead author of the declaration, Professor Richard Lindzen, has called the current climate narrative “absurd”, but acknowledged that trillions of dollars and the relentless propaganda from grant-dependent academics and agenda-driven journalists have convinced the majority of people in the developed world it is not absurd.

The WCD is scathing about the quality of the climate models, which are usually created not by professional computer programmers but by scientists who think they are better qualified to write the software because computers are 'scientific.' 

In reality computers are not very scientific at all, take it from someone who worked with them for 30 years. They do not "store information as millions of little ones and zeros" or even millions of big ones and zeros, what they do is distinguish btween a positive (+) and negative (-) charge of static electricity. Everything else is instructions written by humans. 

To believe the 'scientific' predictions of such a climate model is to accept that what the modellers have input is a reasonable representation of the real world. In fact it has been known for around twenty years that the computers are not fed empirical data gathered from around the world, but 'adjusted data' in other words information that has been manipulated, presumably to ensure it provides the required answer. Climate models now provide all the evidence referenced in discussions of climate upheaval and independant scientists see this as a problem. “We should free ourselves from the naïve belief in immature climate models,” says the WCD. “In future, climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.”

Since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ in around 1850, the world has warmed significantly less than predicted by the IPCC on the basis of modelled human influences. “The gap between the real world and the modelled world tells us that we are far from understanding climate change,” the WCD notes.

Publication of The Declaration is an enormously significant event, although it will be ignored by the mainstream media and political debate. But this is not the first time distinguished scientists have called for less mathematical speculation and more reality in climate science. In Italy a leading physicist, Emeritus Professor Antonino Zichichi recently led 48 science professors in stating that the role of CO2 emissions from human activity in climate change is “unjustifiably exaggerated and the catastrophic predictions used to justify irrational and authoritarian policies like 'net zero' are not realistic”. In their scientific view, “natural variation explains a substantial part of global warming observed since 1850”. Professor Zichichi has signed the WCD.

The Declaration notes oberves that the planet’s climate has varied greatly for as long as the planet has existed, with  cycles of cold and warm periods. “It is no surprise that we are experiencing a period of warming,” it continues. Climate models have many shortcomings,  “and are not remotely plausible as global policy tools” it warns. The amateur programmers deliberately blow up the effect of carbon dioxide, but ignore its beneficial effects. 

“CO2 is not a pollutant,” the Declaration says (echoing what Boggart Abroad has been saying all these years,) “It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth; additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yield of crops worldwide.”

In addition, the scientists claim that there is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and such-like natural disasters, or making them more frequent, and provide datasets to back up this assertion. 

“There is no climate emergency,” the Declaration goes on. “We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050,” it says, adding that the aim of global policy should be “prosperity for all” by providing reliable and affordable energy at all times. “In a prosperous society, men and women are well educated, birth rates are low and people care about their environment,” it concludes.

The WCD is the latest sign that the ‘settled science’ narrative on which climate change fearmongering is based, is rapidly falling apart as one after the other the doom laden predictions fail to materialise. 

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Climate Change Research Paper Censored by The British Hydrological Society For Telling The Truth

 

The Daily Sceptic today published an article by retired research scientist James Dent, whose specialist field was hydrology and meteorology. Mr. Dent was involved in research projects aiemd at understanding the factors influencing climate, and their effects on environments, in many parts of the world. He was especially involved in studying the patters leading up to floods and droughts. For a time, he was the World Meteorology Organisation Chief Technical Advisor to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre in Bangladesh, a low lying nation especially prone to flooding as it is situated in the Ganges / Bramahputra delta region. 

The article was initially published in the British Hydrological Society journal Circulation, but was withdrawn almost immediately without a satisfactory explanation.

This excerpt however gives a taster of the problem Dent encountered by positing theories that, while backed by solid research materia, differ from the globalist narrative that climate change, driven by Carbon Dioxide emissions from human activity poses an existential threat to civilisation.

Like the predictions of the progress of Covid, we need to ask what the limitations are to modelling. Too easily the model output is given the status of truth, and quickly becomes unchallengeable. Climate change predictions have been commonplace for at least 25 years, but I recently read an agricultural journalist state that in the future, farmers will have to cope with hotter, drier summers, and warmer, wetter winters, and there will be more extreme events. The message has remained the same, so have we not yet reached the predicted future?

It becomes easy to summarise complicated ideas into sound bites.

Over the last 15 years, I have resigned from two national institutions which have incorporated climate change hypotheses into rigid policy statements. This situation could so easily escalate to the dystopian future depicted in the recently published novel The Denial by Ross Clark.

Like all the ramifications and issues relating to Covid, the danger comes when theoretical projections provide the basis of legislation, or define the stance of particular organisations, while the media presentations rely on throw-away lines and virtue-signalling in reporting.

I can see similar dangers arising from so-called ‘environmental’ policies, such as ceasing river dredging and weed clearance, ‘rewilding’ and abandoning land and road drainage maintenance. Ultimately we could find ourselves regressing to medieval conditions, where roads and marshy areas become impassable in the winter months.

Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University and President (for what it's worth,) of British Hydrological Society (BHS), explained that the paper had been withdrwn because it represented “a personal view from one of our membership that climate change was not a real phenomenon”.  She went on to say: “We do not think it is appropriate to provide them with a forum under the BHS logo.”

Fowler went on tyo say that the “climate sceptic” viewpoint  did not represent good scholarship in science and we “will be reviewing our governance procedures to make sure that members voices can still be heard, but through the lens of good science”. 

By 'good science' she means mathematical modelling of course. In the thirty years or so since the climate scare was launched ALL the evidence that changes in our climate are caused solely by Carbon Dioxide emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activity has been obtained from mathematical modelling rather than good science, i.e. from data gethered by researchers observing and recording conditions in the real world and disovering consistent patters of cause and effect that can be repeatedly demonstrated.

As a wise old computer guy who had worked with Alan Turing in the very early days told me and other young colleagues when I was a traineee programmer / operator back in the early 1970s, "If you torture data enough it will eventually give the answers you want."

And that is how the science of mathematical modelling works.

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Scientist who convinced Boris lockdown was the only way to beat coronavirus criticised many times for flawed research

The scientist whose mathematical models of how the coronavirus would spread in the UK and the wildly exaggerated estimates of how many deaths might result from the epidemic reportedly led to the decision to implement a countrywide lockdown and trash the economy has been criticised in the past for flawed research.

In fact Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, who authored and published a research paper predicting that The UK was likely to see 250,000 premature deaths during a coronavirus epidemic unless measures to effectively shut down the country were taken. It is this research which convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet and advisors to introduce the lockdown.

Neil Ferguson: would you buy a used mathematical model from this man (Picture: Press association

It is, however, always unsafe to accept the word of one scientist or one research project, and it seems Prof. Ferguson is such an incorrigible publicity junkie he has a track record for making exaggerated and sensationalised claims about the probable outcomes of various crises which is longer than the Tour de France course. It is now being discussed publicly that Ferguson has a long established reputation for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions and the results of mathematical models which have nonetheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy. 

It is perhaps no coincidence that the medical research faculty at Imperial College London receives a large chunk of its revenue in the form of donations from the Bill and Medlinda Gates Foundation, which is also the largest donor to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

We have to cease this deification of scientists now. They are not impartial and objective seekers after truth, but are every bit as self interested as the rest of us. And when we look at Ferguson’s career and the disastrous policy decisions his mathematical models have lead to, the best we can say is “He’s not The Messiah, he’s a a very naughty boy,” (h/t Monty Python’s Flying Circus.)
The 2001 model used by Professor Ferguson and his team at Imperial College London concluded that the culling of animals include not only those found to be infected with the virus but also those on adjacent farms even if there was no physical evidence of infection.

“Extensive culling is sadly the only option for controlling the current British epidemic, and it is essential that the control measures now in place be maintained as case numbers decline to ensure eradication,” said their report which as presented to government, but published after the cull began

This mass slaughter – technically known as contiguous culling – triggered disgust in the British public as news video night after night showed the corpses of healthy animals being stacked, soaked with fuel oil and burned, and also prompted analyses of the methodology which led to such an appalling and, as it turned out, unjustified conclusion.

An analysis of Ferguson’s research published in the 2011 paper, Destructive Tension: mathematics versus experience – the progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain, found that the government had ordered the destruction of millions of animals on evidence from “severely flawed” modelling.

According to one of its authors – the former head of the Pirbright Laboratory at the Institute for Animal Health, Dr Alex Donaldson – Ferguson’s models made a “serious error” by “ignoring the species composition of farms,” (a fairly basic piece of information, it must require a special kind of stupidity to be unable to distinguish betwen cattle, sheep and pics,) and the fact that the disease spread more easily between some species than others.

The report stated: “The mathematical models were, at best, crude estimations that could not differentiate risk between farms and, at worst, inaccurate representations of the epidemiology of FMD.”

It also described a febrile atmosphere – reminiscent of the fear and panic whipped up by attention seeking “experts,” celebrities and the mainstream media in recent week – and suggested that this hysteria allowed mathematical modellers to shape government policy.

“The general impatience that met the wait for the full extent of infections to become apparent, accompanied by an ever increasing number of outbreaks and piles of carcasses awaiting disposal, was perceived as a lack of success of the traditional control measures and provided the opportunity for self-styled ‘experts’, including some veterinarians, biologists and mathematicians, to publicise unproven novel options,” the researchers said.

As the lead scientist behind that disputed advice that led to Tony Blair’s government ordering the mass culling of farm livestock during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds was none other than Ferguson who based his conclusion on the output from – you guessed it – mathematical models of a cow and a bacterium, it is absolutely unacceptable that this man’s advice is being allowed to influence government.

And before that it was he who predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. The BSE panic is long forgotten but BSE is still around and still no cure has been developed, yet to date there have been fewer than 200 deaths caused by the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

Ferguson’s foot and mouth disease research has attracted strong criticism in scientific journals and therefore cannot be said to have passed the acid test of scientific research, peer review. It has also been the subject of critical academic papers which identified allegedly unsupportable assumptions being made by Ferguson in creating the algorithms and defining the data for his mathematical
modelling.

When challenged, he robustly defended his work, saying that he had worked with limited data and limited time so the models weren’t 100 per cent right – but that the conclusions it reached were valid. but as every old computer pro like myself knows, conclusions based on incomplete data may be valid in the circumstances but are meaninless. Mathematical models can only be relied on if they are fed all the relevant data, if guesses are made to fill in the gaps then the law of GIGO kicks in, “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

Professor Michael Thrusfield, of the veterinary epidemiology faculty at Edinburgh University, who co-authored both of the critical reports, said the papers were intended to serve asas a “cautionary tale” about the dangers of using mathematical models to predict the spread of disease when there are unknown factors that can probably never be known.

He spoke of experiencing a sense of “déjà vu” when he read Mr Ferguson’s Imperial College paper on coronavirus, which was published earlier this month.

That paper – Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand – warned that if no action were taken to control the coronavirus, around 510,000 people in Britain would lose their lives.

Naive belief in the infallibility of mathematics has not only led to disastrous responses to outbreaks of disease of course, which is why many people of a naturally sceptical mindset have questioned the way modern academics conflate science and mathematics. Science and mathematics are not the same thing, in fact mathematics is not even a science, although we were all taught at school that is is. Mathematics is, in the truest sense of the word, an art: that is a contraction of artifice, which is a statement guaranteed to have some maths and science fanboys screaming in outrage. The true meaning of artifice however is not something false or dodgy, but something created by humans, something not of nature. And no matter what fanboys (and girls,) might try to tell you, nature does not do equations.

As I have said many time, computes are not infallible, they are only as good as the person who programs them. And there is no such thing as Artificial Intellegence, as Professor Ferguson’s wild adventures in mathematical modelling seem to show very clearly.

The Black-Scholes equation was the mathematical justification for the irresponsible trading in financial markets that plunged the world’s banks into meltdown a few years ago. The brainchild of economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes, the equation provided a rational way (they believed,) to price a financial contract when it still had time to run. It was like buying or selling a bet on a horse, halfway through the race. It opened up a new world of ever more complex investments, blossoming into a gigantic global industry. But when the sub-prime mortgage market turned sour, the darling of the financial markets became the Black Hole equation, sucking money out of the universe in an unending stream. It was the Black-Scholes equation that opened up the world of derivatives.

The equation itself wasn’t the real problem. It was useful, it was precise, and its limitations were clearly stated. Derivatives could be traded before they matured. The formula was fine if you used it sensibly and abandoned it when market conditions weren’t appropriate. The trouble was its potential for abuse. Unfortunately a fatal flaw was that it allowed derivatives to become commodities that could be traded in their own right. The financial sector called it the Midas Formula and saw it as a recipe for making everything turn to gold. But the markets forgot how the story of King Midas ended.
The world’s banks lost hundreds of billions when the sub-prime mortgage bubble burst leaving thouse who had bought consolidated debt obligations in the belief that property prices would keep goping up forever. In the ensuing panic, taxpayers were forced to pick up the bill, but that was politics, not mathematical economics.

Likewise with Neil Ferguson’s mathematical models of diseases, in order to prevent a disaster which the professors mathematical models say is inevitable, politicians are being persuaded to courses of action that really will destroy national economies on the basis of a largely fictional (if not fantastic,) course of events. We must return to sanity now. Far more people are likely to die in a global recession than are ever going to be killed by coronavirus.

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