talent for
Financial Times columnist and founder member of the Vobblyvoddymyr Zelensky piano playing penis fan club, Gideon Rachman has a talent for stating the obvious which he displays in a recent article on the state of play in the Ukrainian conflict 'Ukraine and its backers need a credible path to victory - archived. As the Financial Times is behind a paywall with no monthly allocation of free articles, below is a sommary of the most importyant section:
As Ukraine goes into the new year short of ammunition, money and diplomatic support, there is another important deficiency. The country and its western backers no longer have a convincing strategy for victory, if the ever truy did.
As 2023 the year of the Ukrainian counteroffensive's catatrophic failure, ends with Russia back in the ascendant, inflicting huge casualties on Ukraine's armed forces and gaining more territory fear are growing among Ukraine's erstwhile allies that 2024 will be the year that Russia overruns Ukraine and inflicts total defeat. The worst-case scenarios are that, if western aid is cut off, Ukraine could be in serious trouble by the summer.
Without a credible strategy and thus no apparent path to the promised victory, pressure on the Ukrainian regime to negotiate a settlement will continue to mount mount. The Ukrainians might make a deal even if it involved making territorial concessions if they had any confidence that Russia would stick to it. But Ukrainian officials cite a litany of agreements that Putin has made and then broken. They believe that any cessation in the fighting would simply be used as an opportunity for Russia to rearm.
While most of the article is in line with what other mainstream media reports are concluding about Ukraine's likely fate, Rachman omits to list any agreements Russia is claimed to have broken. Does he mean the Minsk agreements brokered by former French President Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel which the Ukraine rejected to fulfill? Or is it the Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty that Ukraine in 2019 refused to renew?
Unlike the U.S. and its allies in the proxy was with Russia, The Kremlin sticks to its treaties.
But up to a point Rachman is right. There is currently no 'theory of victory' (to use his phrase) for Ukraine. In fact there never was and the only surprise is that so many in the west fell for the narrative that Ukraine was winning and if only the NATO allies would grant the Ukrainians enough aid in high tech and low tech weapons, support thechnology, ammunition, money, food, medicines, aircraft and troops on the ground Washington's goals in sponsoring the war, regime change in Moscow and the break up of the Russian federation could be achieved. The truth was, Ukraine could never win. Even if NATO had been willing to provide as history shoes us, air support and troops on the ground any conventional war with Russia The question now is how badly will Ukraine lose and how much territory will it have to cede to end the pointless slaughter of its young (and now not so young and even elderly) men?
On the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin has said:"There will be peace when we achieve our goals, which you have mentioned. Now let’s return to these goals – they have not changed. I would like to remind you how we formulated them: denazification, demilitarisation, and a neutral status for Ukraine."
It is the guaranteed neutrality that has been the sticking point. This blog, as we often remind readers, reported in mid - 2022 that as early as April of that year when Turkey's President Erdogan had arranged peace talks between the combatant nations and Russia was willing to make peace in return for Ukrainian neutrality and guarantees on the security of Ukraine's breakaway Russian speaking provinces it was the USA and UK that blocked any negotations insisting that Ukraine must not negotiate and deal without prior approval from the USA.
Russia has made some progress toward those aims but not all have yet been achieved, in particular the European Union and NATO are stupidly still making noises about admitting Ukraine to their ranks.
As long as this kind of idiocy goes on, Russsia will continue the war until the Ukraine agrees to some kind of negotiations territorial concessions and neutrality. If it does not do so anytime soon Russia will continue the now one sided conflict until Ukraine is completely crushed and can no longer function as a nation.
The Ukrainian outlet Strana has analyzed how that might happen (in Russian, machine translation):
Only a few events can bring Ukraine to the brink of complete defeat:1. Capture of Kiev.
2. Cutting off Ukraine from the sea - the capture of the entire Black Sea coast of the country and the withdrawal of Russian troops to the borders of Romania and Moldova. This will be a catastrophic blow to Ukraine both economically and militarily-strategically.
3. The capture of Dnipro and Zaporizhia – the largest rear, industrial and logistics hubs of the Ukrainian army, which will mean a critical threat to the entire Southern Front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as most of the eastern one. ...
4. A strike from Belarus through the Zhytomyr and Vinnytsia regions with the aim of reaching Transdniestria from the north and maintaining control over this line.
...
[T]he apocalyptic scenarios described above for Ukraine can only be realized if at least one of the following events occurs (we leave out the options for using nuclear weapons or entering the war on the side of the Russian Federation of large third countries, as they can lead to a world war, where there will be completely different scenarios):1. A catastrophic drop in discipline and morale in the Ukrainian army, when entire units begin to surrender or leave their positions without orders, exposing large sections of the front.
2. Internal destabilization in Ukraine, acute conflict within the military-political leadership, loss of control by the authorities over the processes in the country, the collapse of the army management.
3. Falling to a critically low level of both military and financial aid from the West.
4. A sharp (much faster than similar actions of Ukraine) increase in Russia's army size, quality and quantity of weapons used, which will radically change the balance of forces at the front.
At the moment, none of these situations are observed.
However, Russia is obviously actively working to make these points a reality.
And that about sums up the situation.
Aid to Ukraine has fallen off a cliff as nations refuse to bankrupt themselves funding an unwinnable war. New aid from the U.S. or E.U. is seriously in doubt. If either fails to agree to donate new $£€billions or send more tanks, guns, missiles and vehicles the other will too. Additional problems come from the west where Polish truckers, now joined by farmers, continue to block the border crossings with Ukraine. Shortages in ammunition have already led Ukraine to scaling down its current operations.
Russia has increased the size of its army but still has more troops in reserve than on active duty in the war zone. With the economy on a war footing it produces way more weapons and ammunition than the Western allies combines can deliver to Ukraine.
Should Russia win and take over most of Ukraine it could negate Ukraine's debt, making the West pay double for its adventure.That would be a just punishment on the USA for the Biden administration's failure to dismantle Russia.
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