A few days days ago the container ship MSC Aries was boarded in the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces and forced to anchor off the coast of Iran. The incident was overshadowed by the Iranian drone and missile attacks on Israel and was hardly mentioned by mainstream media. However as far as the western nations are concerned this incident is potentially far more significant.
If the hijacking of Aries is the first act by the Iranians in challenging freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as part of their wider campaign against Israel (and allies) then this means an oil crisis for Europe as far more oil, from Saudi Arabia's main ports, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq and Kuwait passes through that narrow waterway than any other shipping route in the world. To make matters worse the navy forces if the USA and NATO are currently occupied in keeping the Bab-el-Mandeb strait open for shipping at the southern end of the Red Sea, as attacks by Houthi rebels based in Yemen are proving more disruptive than anybody expected.
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and traditionally disrupts marine traffic at the first hint on any crisis, but as the current crisis is more serious than any we have seen for years the Ayatollahs who rule the authoritarian theocracy have a greater incentive to disrupt or even halt movement of shipping through the waterway.
Since the Houthis began their drone attacks on shipping in the Southern Red Sea last October, the the Strait of Hormuz has been relatively quiet, suggesting which may mean the Iranians’ are focusing their attention on effort was going into helping the Houthis in Yemen or simply that the Red Sea situation has led to reduced volumes of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
So the question now is whether or not this new incident was a one-off attack in response to the Israeli strike on the Iranian “consulate” in Syria or the start of a concerted campaign to disrupt shipping in the Strait which, if Iran chooses to play it, will be the trump card that decides the outcome of this game.
Iran has never had a better opportunity to damage the west economically, escalate the conflict of the Islamic world with Israel and strengthem its own ties with China and Russia. If the Ayatollahs choose to play this ace, international naval resources would be spread even more thinly than they already are, with the situations in The Black Sea and the South China Sea showing no signs of easing and the west's dependence on internet technologies demanding that in a time of global unrest more resources are devoted to policing the underwater cables that carry international traffic and supporting industrial, financial and commercial activity. Iranians are not stupid, they know this. Hopefully, the hijacking of the MV aries was a one-off, not a new front in what is rapidly developing into World War Three.
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Zero Hedge:
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