Wednesday, April 24, 2024

The West Is About To Shoot Itself In The Foot In Its Economic War With Russia

 

In spite of all the sanctions imposed by the NATO alliance and all the false narratives spun by government propagandists and mainstream media commentators in the west the Russian performed more strongly last year than any G7 advanced economy, including the US, and according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, and is expected to do so again this year. Sanctions have at best only slightly weakened the Russian war machine.

 

Credit: Sofia Sandurskaya/Pool Sputnik Kremlin  

The main reason for this failure is Russia's trade partnership with China, which is set to overtake the USA as the world's largest economy but another reason is the “Global South” – the fashionable term for countries making up the developing and low income world. Nations of such disparate and often conflicting geopolitical and economic interest cannot be so easily pigeon-holed.

To understand the roots of anti-Western feeling you have to go way back to colonial times, and the resentments that this now long-gone world incubated. But it has also grown worse in recent decades, starting with disastrous Western interventions in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and continuing with the global financial crisis, which undermined trust in Western financial markets.
 
Yet there is one thing many members do tend to have in common, which is a generally anti-Western mindset. This assumes particular meaning when it comes to Russian sanctions.

That these have self-evidently failed is largely because major parts of the “Global South” have refused to be bound by them, thereby providing ample export markets for Russian oil – which after being refined is frequently re-exported to Western markets – and abundant alternatives to the West in meeting Russian demand for manufactured goods.

To understand the roots of anti-Western feeling in the Global South we must look back to colonial times, and the resentments that this now long-gone world incubated. But it has also grown worse in recent decades, starting with disastrous Western interventions in both Afghanistan and Iraq, non violent meddling in the internal politics of many other nations, and continuing with the global financial crisis, which undermined trust in Western financial markets.

Unlike China, which has showered the Global South with development money, the West has taken few steps to effectively court these economies. It then further added to the sense of grievance by initially refusing to share vaccine innovations during the pandemic with low income countries.

  A remarkable commentary by 'Inside Russia' on this very issue, was publisged yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIzN2tIynxM

It's about 48 minutes long. I think that what he's saying makes a heck of a lot of sense and challenge those Russophobic people still convinced that Russia is close to collapse and Ukraine is winning the war to listen to that and then to say it's not true and I am just a far right nutter and Putin's catamite.

But the heart of the commentary is the point that a large percentage of the Russian population is being redirected into supporting the war against Ukraine. The Russian government is spending lots of money on this war, and you can get a much better salary working for the war effort than what the non-war economy offers. And so in consequence the non-war (domestic) economy is suffering shortages of labour and materials. And lots of things are failing.

When the war ends, what will there be to show for it? A lot of dead Ukrainians and lot of dead Russians for sure. But Russia will still have oil and gas, coal, iron, nitrates, phosphates and a wealth of other natural resources as well as its valuable agricultural economy. And Ukraine will have ...... been reduced to rubble. 

This being the case the next issue is the rebuilding of Ukraine. Putin will only pay for rebuilding those Ukrainian territories that will become part of Russia. The west has been running its economies on debt for decades and its credit is almost maxed out. One plan being considered is “To seize and transfer frozen Russian assets held in the west..." To do so will set a disastrous precedent against the existing international financial order and further alienate the Global South and drive those developing nations towards BRICS, the free trade bloc set uo by Russia and China. This issue is only of concern to Russia, its Chinese allies, and the Global South, all of which have valuable assets held in the west. “Moving from freezing assets to confiscating and disposing of them is something that needs to be carefully considered”, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week, which is understated central bank speak for “this is beyond the pale”. If the west goes ahead with that plan it could wreck the global financial system. During both the Fst and Second World Wars, Central Banks, regardless of which country they belonged to, set out to operate in international money markets as if not a shot had been fired, with regular contact maintained and gold reserves scrupulously curated on behalf of hostile powers. If governments force their Central Banks to We pretend that most of the things that governments do are productive although the preceding paragraph shows they are not. Is that really a valid assumption? That is one of the implicit assumptions behind the GDP number. That a government expenditure is productive and as productive as that of a private company. War is certainly productive for the private companies that manufacture weapons, ammunition and equipment, but for governments, though it may increase GDP just as welfare expediture increases GDP because benefit claimants spend the money taken from productive people who pay taxes and spend it. But it does not increase the overall wealth of the nation. And to seize the wealth of foreign nations would fragment the world and led to more and more regional wars. However much of Russia's industry is supported by government from revenue earned by export of natural commodities from its vast reserves. Thus we cannot really compare Russia with western economies. The west is bankrupt having spaffed the last of it wealth fighting a pointless and unwinnable war. And Russia, by extending its influence in the Global South has been productive and added significantly to its geopolitical clout.


The Global Times, a Chinese state controlled news outlet, had this to say about the matter: “To seize and transfer frozen Russian assets... will set a disastrous precedent against the existing international financial order”. Nor is it an issue only of concern to Russia, its Chinese allies, and the Global South. “Moving from freezing assets to confiscating and disposing of them is something that needs to be carefully considered”, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week, which is understated central bank speak for “this is beyond the pale”. Central banks are often accused of being essentially supranational organisations with scant regard for the nations to which they belong. Sometimes it’s true. During both the First and Second World Wars, they set out to operate in international money markets as if not a shot had been fired, with regular contact maintained and gold reserves scrupulously curated on behalf of hostile powers.

[ Europe ] ... [ Europe Unglues ] ... [ Energy ] ... [Russians catalog ] ... [ Living Within The Conspiracy ] ... [ Germany ]

There Is Only One Way Ukraine Can End The War
As Ukraine's much hyped counterattack has failed to achieved the and momentum that hoped for by American and NATO leaders including President Volodymyr Zelensky who admitted it was "slower than desired", and a range of soldiers interviewed by BBC and Sky News television reporters t on different parts of the long (probably too long given the depletion of Ukrainian military manpower,) frontline have blamed minefields laid by Russian troops for that delay. Well as is often said, in any wartruth is the first casualty.

Who Blew Up The Nordstream Pipeline
So whodunnit? Sabotage of undersea gas pipe will escalate tension and move the world closer to nuclear war, but who is behind it, Russia in a bid to put more presure on Europe, Ukraine in an attempt to drag NATO into direct action, or the USA using a CIA false flag event to advance its own agenda.

Has Putin Has Pushed Europe Into Economic Depression, Hyperrinflation and Currency Collapse?
Though it was entirely predictable and indeed had been expected for some time, the news over the weekend that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which feeds gas from Russia to northern Europe via The Baltic route had been shut down completely by The Kremlin in retaliation for the continued financial and military support given by NATO and EU member states to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. The European Commission, governing body of the EU, immediately put the community on something close to a war footing, ...
Continue reading >>>

Is Russia Selling Its Oil To The World Through An Obscure Egyptian Port?
As this blog predicted when NATO and EU member states shot themselves in the foot by reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with sanctions that prevented Russia from selling oil, gas and vital raw materials to the countries that needed them most, the NATO and EU member states, the Russians have had no problems finding alternative customers for their gas and oil and no problem getting oil into the world's commodity markets through the back door.

Jingoistic Western Triumphalism Will Not End The War In Ukraine Or Cripple Putin, But It Is Crippling Western Nations

As the war in Ukraine grinds on and Russia steps up its economic war against the west and in particular The European Union, claims made recently by the idiotically 'woke' leaders of Europe's main economic and military powers that the West has a once-in-a–generation chance to severely weaken Russia’s capabilities, both militarily and geopolitically, look increasingly hollow. Putin's critics have cited 'Western unity' as one of the main reasons why Russia will be economically destroyed and politically humiliated when the Ukraine's military finally claim victory.

European Union Is Again Close To A Meltdown As Eurozone Economy Collapses
Once more we return to the political instability and economic fragility of the European Union as the conflict in Ukraine combined with loonytoons Climate Change mitigation policies, the failure of 'sustainables' to meet ever increasing demand for electricity, fod shortages and rampant price inflation put economic and social pressure on governments of member states ...

We The Good Guys Versus They The Bad Guys Reporting Does Not Make Sense For The Ukraine Crisis
Mainstream media reporting of the conflict in Ukraine has disappointed. Perhaps I was naive to suppose that lessons might have been learned from the hits their print sales and online traffic rates took as a result of their handling the COVID pandemic But instead of focusing on the most obviously newsworthy aspect of the build up to and escalation of the war, Russia’s view of NATO expansion into Ukraine and even further to Georgia and Kazakhstan, news reports have simply demonised Russia and portrayed Ukraine as the good guys.

Boris and Biden Can't Blame Ukraine War For Energy Crisis
With typical arrogance and condescension towards the people who elected them Boris Johnson, Joe Biden and their respectiive presstitutes are trying to spin the energy crisis Europe and North America are currently facing as somehow being linked to the conflict in Ukraine and therfore blame is being attactched to Russia and Vladimir Putin. Do they really think we are stupid enough to believe such unmitigated bollocks? ...

Even If The War In Ukraine Ends, Sanctions Will Stay - So How Bad Will The Food Crisis Get?
Western leaders, desperate to show their own countries they were taking a firm stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were quick to impose economic sanctions ... so quick in fact that they acted before they had though things through. While freezing Russia out of the global finance system they have exacerbated the wests energy crisis, while Russia's retaliatory ban on raw materials (fertiliser) exports will create extra problems on top of those we already had ...

Europe's Depleted Gas Storage Might Not Get Refilled Ahead Of Next Winter
While mainstream news reporting of the conflict in Ukraine continues to pump out a torrent of anri - Russia, pro - war propaganda the catastropic effects of this war that could so easily have been avoided are not mentioned. Well why would warmongering governments admit they have inflicted an energy crisis, food shortages and soaring living costs on their people for no good reason ...

Germany News Mag. Spiegel Asks "Is Vladimir Putin Right?" About NATO Expansion
As the confrontation along the border between Ukraine and Russia has escalated to actual shooting with ethnic Russian rebel separatists in Donbas reporting intensified shelling and initiating a "general mobilization" of military-age males, with Moscow denying they plan to invade and Ukraine's leaders accusing US, UK and French leaders of hysteria for talking up the threat of war, Germany's leading newspaper Spiegel asks the question fundamental to the entire conflict...

While Crazy Joe Biden Claims Victory Over Russia, NATO's Expansin Plans Have Been Derailed By PutinJoe Biden (or his handlers because we all know Joe's mind is gone,) have been trying to spin reports of Russian troops withdrawing from positions close to the Ukraine border as a diplomatic victory for the USA over Putin but in the geopolitical game things are seldom what they seem to be ...

As The COVID Narratyive Crumbles War Takes Over As The Scary Monster That Keeps People In Fear
As the COVID narrative crumbles under the weight of evidence that the vaccines do not work, masks are useless and lockdowns kill more than they save a new scaremongering narrative - or a revamped old one - is emerging as the threat of war with Russia is the latest fear and panic vehicle to scare the people into compliance with tyranny. Continue reading >>>

No comments: