In spite of all the sanctions imposed by the NATO alliance and all the false narratives spun by government propagandists and mainstream media commentators in the west the Russian performed more strongly last year than any G7 advanced economy, including the US, and according to International Monetary Fund forecasts, and is expected to do so again this year. Sanctions have at best only slightly weakened the Russian war machine.
The main reason for this failure is Russia's trade partnership with China, which is set to overtake the USA as the world's largest economy but another reason is the “Global South” – the fashionable term for countries making up the developing and low income world. Nations of such disparate and often conflicting geopolitical and economic interest cannot be so easily pigeon-holed.
To understand the roots of anti-Western feeling you have to go way back to colonial times, and the resentments that this now long-gone world incubated. But it has also grown worse in recent decades, starting with disastrous Western interventions in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and continuing with the global financial crisis, which undermined trust in Western financial markets.
That these have self-evidently failed is largely because major parts of the “Global South” have refused to be bound by them, thereby providing ample export markets for Russian oil – which after being refined is frequently re-exported to Western markets – and abundant alternatives to the West in meeting Russian demand for manufactured goods.
To understand the roots of anti-Western feeling in the Global South we must look back to colonial times, and the resentments that this now long-gone world incubated. But it has also grown worse in recent decades, starting with disastrous Western interventions in both Afghanistan and Iraq, non violent meddling in the internal politics of many other nations, and continuing with the global financial crisis, which undermined trust in Western financial markets.
Unlike China, which has showered the Global South with development money, the West has taken few steps to effectively court these economies. It then further added to the sense of grievance by initially refusing to share vaccine innovations during the pandemic with low income countries.
A remarkable commentary by 'Inside Russia' on this very issue, was publisged yesterday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIzN2tIynxM
It's about 48 minutes long. I think that what he's saying makes a heck of a lot of sense and challenge those Russophobic people still convinced that Russia is close to collapse and Ukraine is winning the war to listen to that and then to say it's not true and I am just a far right nutter and Putin's catamite.
But the heart of the commentary is the point that a large percentage of the Russian population is being redirected into supporting the war against Ukraine. The Russian government is spending lots of money on this war, and you can get a much better salary working for the war effort than what the non-war economy offers. And so in consequence the non-war (domestic) economy is suffering shortages of labour and materials. And lots of things are failing.
When the war ends, what will there be to show for it? A lot of dead Ukrainians and lot of dead Russians for sure. But Russia will still have oil and gas, coal, iron, nitrates, phosphates and a wealth of other natural resources as well as its valuable agricultural economy. And Ukraine will have ...... been reduced to rubble.
This being the case the next issue is the rebuilding of Ukraine. Putin will only pay for rebuilding those Ukrainian territories that will become part of Russia. The west has been running its economies on debt for decades and its credit is almost maxed out. One plan being considered is “To seize and transfer frozen Russian assets held in the west..." To do so will set a disastrous precedent against the existing international financial order and further alienate the Global South and drive those developing nations towards BRICS, the free trade bloc set uo by Russia and China. This issue is only of concern to Russia, its Chinese allies, and the Global South, all of which have valuable assets held in the west. “Moving from freezing assets to confiscating and disposing of them is something that needs to be carefully considered”, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week, which is understated central bank speak for “this is beyond the pale”. If the west goes ahead with that plan it could wreck the global financial system. During both the Fst and Second World Wars, Central Banks, regardless of which country they belonged to, set out to operate in international money markets as if not a shot had been fired, with regular contact maintained and gold reserves scrupulously curated on behalf of hostile powers. If governments force their Central Banks to We pretend that most of the things that governments do are productive although the preceding paragraph shows they are not. Is that really a valid assumption? That is one of the implicit assumptions behind the GDP number. That a government expenditure is productive and as productive as that of a private company. War is certainly productive for the private companies that manufacture weapons, ammunition and equipment, but for governments, though it may increase GDP just as welfare expediture increases GDP because benefit claimants spend the money taken from productive people who pay taxes and spend it. But it does not increase the overall wealth of the nation. And to seize the wealth of foreign nations would fragment the world and led to more and more regional wars. However much of Russia's industry is supported by government from revenue earned by export of natural commodities from its vast reserves. Thus we cannot really compare Russia with western economies. The west is bankrupt having spaffed the last of it wealth fighting a pointless and unwinnable war. And Russia, by extending its influence in the Global South has been productive and added significantly to its geopolitical clout.
The Global Times, a Chinese state controlled news outlet, had this to say about the matter: “To seize and transfer frozen Russian assets... will set a disastrous precedent against the existing international financial order”. Nor is it an issue only of concern to Russia, its Chinese allies, and the Global South. “Moving from freezing assets to confiscating and disposing of them is something that needs to be carefully considered”, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, said last week, which is understated central bank speak for “this is beyond the pale”. Central banks are often accused of being essentially supranational organisations with scant regard for the nations to which they belong. Sometimes it’s true. During both the First and Second World Wars, they set out to operate in international money markets as if not a shot had been fired, with regular contact maintained and gold reserves scrupulously curated on behalf of hostile powers.
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