The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant. - Maximilien Robespierre.

Thursday, June 26, 2025

EU Leaders Can Talk Like Churchill, Kennedy Or De Gaulle But Putin Knows They Are Armchair Generals

 

 

The most significant exstential threat to the European Union is not the Ukraine war or other member states deciding to follow the UK out of the wannabe Federal Superstate of Franco - Germany but the sovereign debt crisis. The new, and largely imagined threat from Russia after the inevitable fall of Kiev, and the scramble by former military, now bankrupt, powers to rearm is a consequence of that as to a large extent is Putin's confidence that Europe poses no obstacle to achieving his objectives.

Their is a modern myth in Brussels, Paris and Berlin that former European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi single-handedly solves the EU's debt crisis when he told the world that he would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro and announced a 'backstop.' It is a convenient explanation because it assumes that the crisis is over.

But Draghi's apparent financial wizardry was nothing more than the removal of Eurozone borrowing limits, so member states were free to keep creating fiat money by issuing bonds underwritten by ... nothing. Thus the crisis could come back sooner than we think, in fact in many respects it has already done so with a vengance. Last time the Eurozone faced financial collapse, it was the southern Europeans who triggered it. This time, it is the northern Europeans with their burgeoning welfare spending and their relentless importing of vast numbers of unskilled, illiterate and innumerate third world migrants.

In 2010, a Greek deficit, overshot by some $20 billion, triggered an EU-wide financial crisis, a paltry amount compared to the extra defence spending European countries are about to commit: $500 billion, by my calculations, every year. The Greek deficit was a finance minister taking his eye off the ball, but our increase in military spending is a life sentence. After 10 years, we will have spent a cool $5 trillion. This is on top of what we are spending already.

To put this into perspective, when the UK Labour government cut off the winter fuel payments to pensioners, that saved them less than $1.8 billion. We all remember the furious political reactions, public opinion backlash and the botched U-turn that destroyed whatever iota of credibility Keir Starmer's government might have had. If the UK was really serious about meeting the Nato 5%-of-GDP target, the UK government would have to spend a cool $100 billion each year. That’s 55 times as much as the savings on the fuel subsidies. In fact, it is more than half of the UK’s entire welfare budget, excluding pensions.

But every West - European nation is in the same boat, numbers that are off the scale everywhere we look, and with the German economic powerhouse that has financially propped up the EU for three decades now transformed by woke policies into an economic shithouse. This week, Nato leaders will met in The Hague to agree the fiscally most impactful decision that politicians have ever committed to in modern history. They do so without an electoral mandate. 

None of them campaigned for election on a manifesto pledge to hugely increase taxes in order to return to cold war relationships with Russia, including those who came to power in the years since Putin invaded Ukraine, like Keir Starmer or Friedrich Merz. None of them received a formal mandate for rearmament from the parliaments, which are ultimately responsible for fiscal expenditures in Western democracies. 

They are doing this because Donald Trump just pulled this number out of a hat. It was just a number. He could just as easily have said four, or six percent. Nobody did a study beforehand on what Nato actually needs, and how the needed capabilities are best acquired. We are talking about the biggest fiscal programme in human history — because Europeans are dead scared that Trump will abandon us to the Russian bear.

We Europeans live in some of the richest countries in the world, and we are facing an existential threat. So who cares about the cost?  Our politicians believe it is important that we bolster our defences to disabuse Russian leaders of any idea that they could test Nato’s security guarantee with impunity. We should not talk ourselves into a war, as some hotheads are doing now. But we should be in a position to fight one.

It is doubtful the new Nato target will help us do this. Given the lack of any political willingness to pool our defence purchases, what will Putin make of our newly announced 5% spending target? He is already spending 6-8% of Russia economic output on defence, but the impact is much higher than those numbers suggest. 

European leaders  have belatedly realised what an incredibly weak position they are in. The rest of the world is laughing at our self-inflicted NetZero sabotage, inward migration, deindustrialisation and lack of resources. Watching European countries virtue signalling governments developing carbon-neutral eco-friendly, trans and queer inclusive woke, armies will be comedy gold.

The test for any joint European force will be if they can defend the Suwalki Gap, which, according to military strategist, is the most likely move for Putin.

Will he? Maybe. Will he invade Poland, or another non ex-Soviet country, and then take the whole of Western Europe? No. Why would he? Territory is one thing Russia is not short of. 

What resources do we have? We have some nice scenery, a varied cuisine, good scientists, great architecture and art, but what else is so valuable that it is worth the expense of trying to maintain control over a restive and already fracturing population? The road to Paris is no more feasible than the road to Moscow.

Curtis identified the driver of globalist policy after 9/11 in ‘The Power of Nightmares’, control of domestic populations through fear and a common enemy. It explains Iran’s ‘Great Satan’ rhetoric perfectly. Putin, who the media reliably informed me in 2022 (ad almost every day since,) was about to die of cancer after he invaded Ukraine, is the last candidate standing, now Iran has (allegedly) been removed from the threat picture. Strange that these alarmists never mention China.

If the US continues down the isolationist road, contrarians might argue that it is far more likely we will make peace with The Bear in a few years time and eventually be part of the same economic group, just as Taiwan will likely eventually choose to reunify with China once the US has internally replaced its chip dependency.

We could have been much further down the road to economic cooperation after 1991 but it would not have suited the US for that to happen, so it broke the informal, non - expansion agreement Bill Clinton made with Yeltsin and moved the buffer zone into NATO, and the rest is history. 

FROM THE ARCHIVE: 

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