Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Currency Wars - Now The Euro Challenges The Mighty Dollar

Whisper it softly but we Boggart Bloggers sense a change in public mood. We have warned many time over the past two years that the pandemic we were living through was a pandemic of fear rather than a plague caused by an infectious agent. We,  an Information Networks and Systems Consultant, an Accountant and a lecturer in mechanics and engineering, all now retired and with time on their hands to research, crunch numbers and analyse "The Science" concluded the case for lockdows, mask mandates and mandatory vaccines was illogical and unsupported by verifianle evidence, (mathematical models are not evidence.) We concluded something else was going on, and when we dug deeply we found that many things were going on.

Our http://www, wars feature has taken a back seat these past two years as the COVID  pandemic (or propaganda pandemic as some people might say,) has pushed all other stories aside. In our opinion however, the pandemic has served as a convenient smokescreen behind which all sorts of elitist skulduggery has been going on, hidden from the view of the general population.

In Europe, Brexit is done and dusted, the UK economy though hit by the irrational and panic stricken responses to the pandemic as all other major economies have been, is doing well while the European Union (EU), the globalist project aimed as completing the trio of superpowers needed to create an Orwellian dystopia, seems to be falling apart politically and economically. Well we Brits always knew Europe needed us far more than we needed Europe.

And as if to confirm this, the UK£ has been doing remarkably well in currency markets.

It is somewhat surprising then that investment bankers Goldman Sachs this week predicted that the Eurozone would grow at a faster pace than the U.S. in 2022, predicting growth 4.4 percent for EU and only 3.5 percent for U.S. GDP. The latest World Bank forecast, also from January, still sees the U.S. ahead, if only by a paper-thin margin of 0.1 percent, while the new IMF outlook is yet to be released.

As our finance expert Phil T. Looker always likes to remind us GDP is a next to useless measure of real economic health as it only measures the level of churn in an economy. The old analogy is Joe wins $500 on a scratchcard, so the pays Jeff the mechanic the $500 he owes for car repairs. Jeff takes the cash and pays Simon the accountant for sorting out his little problem with the Taxman. Simon decides his office is looking a bit dingy and hires Will the decorator to freshen up the decor. Will passes the money on to Mandy the prostitute in gratitude for her comforting him when his wife left, his mother was sent to prison and and his dog died all on the same day. Mandy looked in the mirror, decided her face was looking a bit tired and spent the money on a spa day. And the beautician, feeling lucky, blows the whole lot on scratch cards.

So Joe's $500 has increased GDP by $3000 yet no extra wealth has been created. But hey - ho, in a system reliant on fiat money, as John Steinbeck wrote, "The monster must grow or else it dies, and for it to grow the monster must be fed," and measuring the heath of the economy by GDP is how we feed the monster. Thus 'growth' is the keyword even though ALL major economies the rate of price inflation is higher than the rate of growth, thus they are in fact contracting and all but the super rich are becoming poorer. But bankers make the rules not us, so on we go.

While mainstream business journalists are still arguing over who will trump whom for economic growth this year, Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes that there are other indicators that already show the Eurozone’s growing economic prowess and international importance

While the Eurozone has seen output stagnate its single currency, The Euro has been doing quite well. The value of global transactions settled in Euro has been slowly gaining ground on  the sum total of UD dollar transactions, data from the Swift international payment network indicates, hinting at increased activity around the currency. 

In October 2020, Euro transaction value briefly moved ahead of the U.S. dollar, while in the longer term the gap between the two currencies on the world stage has become considerable smaller since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Goldman Sachs report that reasons for this include the EU’s coordinated efforts to prop up its economy in the current crisis and its continued zero-interest fiscal policy, both of which can only be harmful to the collective EU economy in the long term, and that since the inauguration of the economically illiterate Biden regime in Washington D.C. faith in the U.S. economy and its future prospects is crumbling. According to CNBC, uncertainty around President Joe Biden’s “Built Back Better” economic package continues to harm confidence in the USA, while far left lunacies like the Green New Deal threaten to bankrupt the Us economy while achieving nothing other than to score points with climate change whingers like Greta Thunberg and the unwashed crusties of Exstinktion Rebellion.

Here's an inforgraphic lifted from Statia showing the narrowing of the gap between Euro and US dollar transactions.

Infographic: Euro Challenges U.S. Dollar as Global Currency | Statista

You will find more infographics on the topic at Statista

Looking  at only payments between parties from different currency zones – thereby excluding international payments between different Eurozone countries – the U.S. dollar still retains its edge as a global trade currency. The gap to the Euro stood at around 3 percent of transaction value in November 2021. Yet, economists have shown surprise at the Euro’s general international success as a strong second player since the U.S. dollar was long seen as the singular international trade currency.

It is also worth mentioning that another reserve currency is performing strongly though on a smalled scale. The UK pound, though by no means a challenger to either Euro or Dollar is the forgotten currency of the bunch, and for decades has been used mainly for trade between nations in the British Commonwealth, (which represents about a third of the global population mainly due to India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh being members. The reasons for this small rally in the popularity of the £ are less clear but as we have reported extensively elsewhere in this page, The People's Republic of China has been busy trying to promote its Yuan (Renminbi) as a reserve currency so it could be that both the Euro and The Pound are benefitting from smalled economies fear of getting too deeply in hoch to the predatory superpowers, The USA and China.


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