The secret of freedom lies in educating people, whereas the secret of tyranny is in keeping them ignorant. - Maximilien Robespierre.

Showing posts with label yuan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yuan. Show all posts

Sunday, June 16, 2024

The Shooting Wars and the Currency Wars

 

As the shooting wars grind on in Ukrsine, Gaza, Syria, The Red Sea, Sudan and e;sewhere, the main theatre of war is now shifting from the battlefields to the financial centres of the world.

Many of you will have been reading in mainstream media about de-dollarization recently, and may have been surprised to learn of the various attempts and strategies being deploted to facilitate trade among the various countries' currencies without using the US dollar, which has been the main reserve currency for intrnational trade since World War Two. You may be even more surprised to learn that Boggart Blog and its various offshoots have been writing about de-dollarisation and currency wars for over ten years. Most international trade is still conducted in dollars, which means the buyer has to purchase dollars in order to make the settle the transaction, and that often means the sale is settled at a U.S.-controlled bank ... a situation which many nations feel Washington has exploited unfairly to preserve its global economic hegemony.

The established world order has come to the dangerous state it is curreently in, because the U.S. exerts uses its position of economic dominance via he dollar to exert political influence. To put it bluntly the U.S.A. has "weaponised" finance. Avoiding the U.S.ninvolvement in cross border transactions is complex and there's a lot of resistance to change particularly from US banks.

There are a number of new, rapidly developing tools and organizations to do this job, and more importantly there are new players with major resources and even bigger motivations that have committed themselves to make non-dollar-denominated trade easy, reliable and fast. And soon.

Russia and China, two of the nations, along with Iran, that started the move to de dollarise world trade over a decade ago are leading, their BRICs trading bloc is likely to be the first major beneficiary of the new trading tools, and now Saudi Arabia has weighed in: SA has let the "price all oil sales in dollars" deal with the U.S. lapse.

This has now been reported in the U.S. and European mainstream media press , with all the appropriate consternation over likely impacts.

M.K Bhadrakumar (IndiaPunchline.com) has a new article out that covers the waterfront - the technologies, the big players, the Saudis, and the impact on the U.S. of de-dollarization. If you're new to the subject, this is a decent place to start.

As many critics have pointed out, everyone knows _why_ other countries are motivated to de-dollarize. The question is "what's the alternative?".

Alternatives get built when the motivation, resources, and capability thresholds are met. They've been met.

If the Saudis actually do start pricing in currencies other than dollars (remember, letting the deal lapse, and actually pricing their oil in different currencies are two separate events), and if China and Russia really do build the multi-currency trading system for BRICS, and remember they have already started the process by creating the 'petroyuan' to rival the global standard 'ptrodollar vehicle for ttrading oil futuresd, this is certin to bring to an end the "exorbitant privilege" of the U.S. as issuer or the global reserve currency.

And that will be a major, major change in the U.S.' situation.

For further reading, search "mBridge" and "BRICs". That'll provide much food for thought.

 

[ Currency Wars ] ... [ Culture Wars ] ... [ Middle East ] ... [ Ukraine ] ... [ free sppech murdered ] ... [ death of democracy ] ... [ New World Order ]

Will Commodities Be The New Reserve Currency As The Death Knell Of The Dollar Sounds?
Many respected economists and market analysts who favour the free markets approach concur that we are heading towards a new economic reality that will see the collapse of the US$ as the default reserve currency, to be replaced not by any other fiat currency such as the Euro or the Renminbi, but by a system in which  commodities are the primary denominator of value. Should this turn out to be the case we can expect an acceleration of the shift in geopolitical power from west to East.

We The Good Guys Versus They The Bad Guys Reporting Does Not Make Sense For The Ukraine Crisis
Mainstream media reporting of the conflict in Ukraine has disappointed. Perhaps I was naive to suppose that lessons might have been learned from the hits their print sales and online traffic rates took as a result of their handling the COVID pandemic But instead of focusing on the most obviously newsworthy aspect of the build up to and escalation of the war, Russia’s view of NATO expansion into Ukraine and even further to Georgia and Kazakhstan, news reports have simply demonised Russia and portrayed Ukraine as the good guys.

Europe's Depleted Gas Storage Might Not Get Refilled Ahead Of Next Winter
While mainstream news reporting of the conflict in Ukraine continues to pump out a torrent of anri - Russia, pro - war propaganda the catastropic effects of this war that could so easily have been avoided are not mentioned. Well why would warmongering governments admit they have inflicted an energy crisis, food shortages and soaring living costs on their people for no good reason ...

More Nations backing Away From The US$
Russia Just Sent out a Message NATO Should Better Listen To
The key paragraph from the latest official Russian naval doctrine is that Putin and his military advisers have sent a clear message that NATO encroachment is unacceptable. To be honest, there is nothing earth shattering in this, The Daily Stirrer and many other alternative media news and analysis sites have been warning for about two years that Obama's foreign policy was making conflict inevitable.

De - dollarization Moves Ahead - Once Again We Told You So,
What Putin Wants
China Warns U.S. to Stop Its Ukrainian Proxy War Against Russia
The World Rejects USA Attempt To Manipulate Venezuela
India's Ruling BJP Party Crushed In Regional Poll
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: Oil Collapse Is All About Obama's Proxy War With Russia.
G77 Nations vow to destroy petrodollar and America’s New World Order
American Dollar Dumped
Iran's Oil and the US Dollar
Money From Rock Better Than Money From Air

There Is Only One Way Ukraine Can End The War
As Ukraine's much hyped counterattack has failed to achieved the and momentum that hoped for by American and NATO leaders including President Volodymyr Zelensky who admitted it was "slower than desired", and a range of soldiers interviewed by BBC and Sky News television reporters t on different parts of the long (probably too long given the depletion of Ukrainian military manpower,) frontline have blamed minefields laid by Russian troops for that delay. Well as is often said, in any wartruth is the first casualty.

Gigantic Nova Kakhova Dam in Ukraine Blown Up - Each Side Blames The Other As The War Grinds On
A day after Ukraine's much-heralded counter-offensive appears to have failed, almost before it had even begun, a major dam in the Russian-occupied region of Kherson is suddenly bombed, prompting mass evacuations as floods spread across the region. Both sides accuse each other of the attack that puts tens of thousands of homes at risk and might even threaten the safety of Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

Washington Leaks Show Ukraine Has Lost The War (And Expose The Dishonesty Of Western Governments And Media)
The leaked U.S. intelligence documents recently published in western mainstream media have exposed the extent to which pro - war propaganda suggesting Ukraine was winning the war is now seen to be a US & NATO led effort to weaken Russia and effect regime change. It looks more likely some western governments are facing regime change as citizens, tired of sky - high energy costs, soaring food prices, and of being lied ...

Russia Will Never Recover From War In Ukraine Claim Zelensky Fan Club As Russia Continues to Crush Ukrainian War Effort
An inside page headline in yesterday's (1 April 2023) Daily Telegraph claims 'Russia will never recover from this devastating collapse,' though the article below it does not quite make clear exactly what collapse the writer is talking about. The Telegraph has been unashamedly pro Ukraine, Zelensky worshipping and Russophobic in its coverage since day one of the war and the article was not an April Fool joke

Zelensky Admits Ukraine Already Ran Out Of Ammo
The US-led West’s Mainstream Media (MSM) began reporting more accurately on the military-strategic dynamics of the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine since the start of the year, but the true test of their comparatively improved integrity will be whether they raise awareness about Zelensky’s latest damning admission. In an interview with Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, he candidly told his interlocutors that “We do not have ammunition. For us the situation in the East is not good.”

Dollar Dominance Will Be The Biggest Casualty Of War In Ukraine
While the mainstream news cycle focuses on Ukraine and speculation about when the strategically significant city of Bakhmut, beseiged by the Russian army for months now, will actually fall, with Ukrainian defenders vowing to fight to the last man but gradually being forced into a smaller and smaller area of the city centre, in the more significant economic war Russia, China and Iran, backed by India, Saudi Arabia and many other African and South East Asian nations are pushing ahead with moved to dump the US dollar as the global reserve currency

Ukraine: Who Is Winning And Losing In The Economic War
One year ago today, to provide a legal framework for Russian military support to Donetsk and Luhansk which would take the form of a military incursion into Ukrainian territory on February 24, the Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed executive orders to recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lunhansk People's Republic as independent countries

Talk of Sending Fighter Planes to Ukraine Is Madness
President Zelensky’s warmongering speech to the UK Parliament yesterday unequivocally and unashamedly made the case for starting World War 3 in order to polish the oversized ego of this little clown with the piano playing penis when he demanded that Nato-grade fighter jets to be sent to Ukraine.

Ukraine End Game: As Bakhmut Falls Real Reporting Vies With Propaganda In Western Media
Ever since Russia crossed the Ukrainian border and launched its 'Special Military Operation' almost a year ago now, everyday in western news media we have watched, heard and read that Ukraine was winning the war - Russia was losing ten soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty, Russian troops were incompetent brutes, Russian military hardware did not work and the Russians were running out of missiles, bullets and everything else.

Status Report On That War Thing In Ukraine: Nordstream to Bakhmut, electricity and water - December 2022


In the wake of attacks on the on the Stream pipelines, that effectively halted the flow of natural gas which German industry, commerce, agriculture and society relies on, and the terrorist attack on the Kerch Bridge, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken gloated that the attacks were a “tremendous opportunity” to weaken Moscow [...] And shortly after news of the Nord Stream sabotage broke on mainstream media, gas supply companies in the USA were offering to supply Europe with shipments of Liquid Natural Gas carried by supertanker to be sold to European nations at vastly inflated prices.

Who Blew Up The Nordstream Pipeline
So whodunnit? Sabotage of undersea gas pipe will escalate tension and move the world closer to nuclear war, but who is behind it, Russia in a bid to put more presure on Europe, Ukraine in an attempt to drag NATO into direct action, or the USA using a CIA false flag event to advance its own agenda.

Russia Ukraine Dirty Bomb Claim - Some Reality
As the situation in Ukraine gets more desperate with casualty numberrs mounting, half the national infrastructure in ruins and Russia upping its game in response to US / NATO military assistance privided to the neo nazi nutters in Kiev, a false flag event seems the only way to provide an excuse for direct US intervention. And the USA has a track record for fgalse flag events ...

Who Blew Up The Nordstream Pipeline
So whodunnit? Sabotage of undersea gas pipe will escalate tension and move the world closer to nuclear war, but who is behind it, Russia in a bid to put more presure on Europe, Ukraine in an attempt to drag NATO into direct action, or the USA using a CIA false flag event to advance its own agenda.

An Energy Crisis In Tandem With A Food Crisis On Top Of An Economic Crisis And A War. This Cannot End Well
As politicians in North America and Europe try to deflect from their own failure that have contributed to the current plethora of crises by blaming Russia and Vladmir Putin for all the current problems, while the war in Ukraine is a contributory factor in each, the real blame lies closer to home.

Swedish Media Outlet Publishes Leaked U.S. Document On How to CRUSH Europe Economy via Ukraine War Effort
Swedish news organisation Nya Dagbladet has published a leaked top secret US plans to use the war in Ukraine and an induced energy crisis to destroy European economies. The report claims the RAND Corporation a defence and foreign policy think tank founded by military aircraft maker Douglas has the official aim of improving policies and decision-making, is the source of its evidence.

Has Putin Has Pushed Europe Into Economic Depression, Hyperrinflation and Currency Collapse?
Though it was entirely predictable and indeed had been expected for some time, the news over the weekend that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline which feeds gas from Russia to northern Europe via The Baltic route had been shut down completely by The Kremlin in retaliation for the continued financial and military support given by NATO and EU member states to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia. The European Commission, governing body of the EU, immediately put the community on something close to a war footing, ...
Continue reading >>>

Is Russia Selling Its Oil To The World Through An Obscure Egyptian Port?
As this blog predicted when NATO and EU member states shot themselves in the foot by reacting to Russia's invasion of Ukraine with sanctions that prevented Russia from selling oil, gas and vital raw materials to the countries that needed them most, the NATO and EU member states, the Russians have had no problems finding alternative customers for their gas and oil and no problem getting oil into the world's commodity markets through the back door.

Jingoistic Western Triumphalism Will Not End The War In Ukraine Or Cripple Putin, But It Is Crippling Western Nations

As the war in Ukraine grinds on and Russia steps up its economic war against the west and in particular The European Union, claims made recently by the idiotically 'woke' leaders of Europe's main economic and military powers that the West has a once-in-a–generation chance to severely weaken Russia’s capabilities, both militarily and geopolitically, look increasingly hollow. Putin's critics have cited 'Western unity' as one of the main reasons why Russia will be economically destroyed and politically humiliated when the Ukraine's military finally claim victory.

Saturday, September 16, 2023

Currency Wars Versus The Gold Standard

 

We Boggart Bloggers have reported that although the battle lines in NATO's proxy war in Ukrained are drawn along the border between Ukraine's Russian speaking eastern provinces and the western part of the country there is another battle being fought on the economic front as Russia, China and their allies manoeuvre to replace the US$ as global reserve currency. American trade policy in  banning of Chinese technology, notably of Huawei, the world leader in G5 mobile technology is n intended not just to suppress competition to American technology but also to discourage inward investment to China. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine (following extreme provocation by Ukraine with support from the NATO powers it must be said,) gave the US government an excuse to cut Russia out of global currency markets.

That action, along wityh other economic sanctions set in train a series of events and rebounded badly on the West, particularly EU member states as misguided 'green energy' policies imposed by Brussels had made the EU heavily dependent on inmported gas from Russia for domestic fuel and electricity generation. In the short term the rouble soared in value when Putin responded to western energy sanctions by setting his own payment terms. But since then, the rouble has declined as the US Federal Reserve has massively increased America's national debt in order to prop up the struggling dollar.

But Russia and China have not been standing still, Putin appointed one of his advisers, Sergei Glazyev, to design a trade settlement currency, initially for the Eurasian Economic Union. Simultaneously China was making deals with oil exporters and importers to use the Yuan as the default currency for settling oil contracts, thus beginning an assault on the 'Petrodollar, which has been the standard currency in which oil was traded since the early 1970s. 

It is believed that the plan for a gold backed BRICS (Brazil, Russia,India, China, South Africa) international currency was extended at the recent BRICS summit last month. China’s yuan is a component in the IMF’s SDR, a hard-won privilege which might have been threatened if it backed gold as a trade settlement medium. India has a history of Keynesian monetary policies and is keen to develop trade links with the US and its allies, as demonstrated by its hosting of the G20 meeting last weekend and its prospective free trade agreement with the UK. These partners may fear that the consequences of implementing a gold standard might be destabilising for the global currency system before the BRICS alternative is ready to step up.

There is bound to be spreading dissent in NATO this winter as energy shortages begin to bite, in fact the process has already started in Germany where the domestic economy is in freefall without any help from the political incompetence of world leaders. The most recent salvo on the energy front in the war  coincides with the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere. Russia and Saudi Arabia , the two biggest oil exporters, have jointly been squeezing oil supplies, pushing crude prices above the G7’s price caps as a means of giving the finger to Joe Biden's handlers who had given strict orders that oil supplies were not to be cut. One area where supply line shortages will hurt the Europeans more immediately is heating oil, which is also regarded as the proxy for diesel prices having increased in dollars by nearly 50% in the last quarter alone.

The importance of diesel is that logistics in Europe and America are almost entirely dependent upon it. No diesel and no freight can be moved by rail or road, not to mention by sea. On top of earlier OPEC+ cuts of 2 million barrels per day, the latest cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day cuts in oil output by Russia and Saudi Arabia are bringing pressure to bear on the supply of distillates (of which diesel is one) and Russia also plans to cut its diesel exports by a quarter, partly due to refinery maintenance (allegedly) and partly to divert supplies to its domestic economy. While the EU’s gas reserves are relatively full at 90% of capacity, it is not nearly enough to see the EU through the winter. From December onwards, there will be a scramble for more supplies. And the end of the agreement on Black Sea grain exports will put further pressure on food prices as well.

Russians are aware that effect of American monetary policy,  whether intended or not, is undermining the true value of their oil, something they have been powerless to correct without binding the price of oil to gold. In spite of that it is a mistake to assume this bid to establish a gold standard is a result on the war. In our currency wars page Russia’s motivation to take control of energy values was behind its proposal for a new BRICS gold backed currency and that it was part of a two-step plan.

The first step was to send a signal to markets that the era of the fiat dollar was over, justifying the second step which was for Russia and China, followed by other nations in the BRICS camp to evolve their own currencies onto gold standards as a protective response to a declining dollar. But China was not going to take the offensive against the dollar, and the Keynesian Indians were not convinced.

Russia will take the BRICS presidency next year, so we can assume that the new BRICS currency has not gone away. Meanwhile, if Russia is to use the oil weapon against the West, then it must put the rouble onto a gold standard again as a matter of urgency (it was on a gold standard until Khrushchev devalued the rouble in 1961). If Russia prevaricates on this issue, then Putin’s legacy to be a latter-day Peter the Great will be destroyed by his own currency.

The possible consequences of a Russian gold standard

In the middle of a war, usually a government suspends its gold standard. This would suggest that Russia can only consider a gold standard after its special operation in Ukraine is over. But the modern equivalent of a gold standard, the currency board, has been successfully established in modern times in nations with far worse budget deficits than Russia. Russia was in the fortunate position of a budget deficit of only 2.3% of GDP last year, despite military spending. This year, military spending has soared, and at a guess the deficit will be about 5% of GDP this year, but government debt to GDP will still be about 20%.

Anything other than ball-park numbers for the Russian economy are difficult to come by, and the volatility of the rouble is a further analytical hazard. But some of these numbers are not substantially different from where Britain was economically in 1816, when a return to the gold standard was planned — the exception being her estimated debt to GDP number, which at nearly 200% was ten times that of Russia today. Therefore, there is no reason why Russia cannot put the rouble onto a gold standard immediately.

In doing so, the objective is simple: to ensure that the purchasing power of circulating credit retains its value in terms of goods and services with as little fluctuation as possible. It would allow savers to accumulate credit balances in their bank accounts, and for businessmen to calculate the profitability of their investments with greater certainty. With income tax currently at a flat 13% rate and corporation tax at 20%, in these conditions economic progress will advance surprisingly rapidly. And there is every reason to expect Russia would quickly become an economic counterweight to the sheer power of China, rather than living off the depletion of her natural resources. It is necessary not just for Russia to distance herself from the fate of the western fiat currency system, but also for President Putin’s legacy.

The method of ensuring monetary stability is equally simple: to bind credit denominated in roubles to gold, which both in law and naturally is the money of the people. It is the highest form of credit, there being no counterparty risk. It’s purchasing power in the general sense has held steady through millennia. Importantly, it removes the currency from political control and dollar influences. It allows for the creation and destruction of credit determined solely by the needs of the Russian people, both as businessmen and consumers.

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De - Dollarisation: China, Brazil Make Deal To Ditch US Dollar For Bilateral Trades
China and Brazil this week concluded a deal to conduct trade between their nations in their own in their own currencies, ditching the established reserve currency for global trade, US dollar as an intermediary, the Brazilian announced said on Wednesday. This is Beijing’s latest strike against the almighty greenback in its currency war aimed at shifting the balance of geopolitical and economic power from west to east.

NATO Rhetoric About Russian Threat is 'Absurd'
The reasons being given for the latest NATO military buildup in Eastern Europe, the idea that the Russian 'Russian threat' to Eastern Europe grows every day is "simply absurd," according to former US diplomat and Senate policy advisor Jim Jatras. Effectively, Jatras says, the buildup is an attempt by the US to keep Germany and France on board with Washington's world domination agenda and ...

The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall Streets's Oil-Price Monopoly
Significant moves in the global chess game have just rendered the huffing and puffing of warmonger Obama meaningless and will break Wall Street's monopoly in controlling oil markets. The move is part of Vladimir Putin's long-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, in effect ...

Naked Bankers Go For Gold
... That gold sale in 2013 was a naked short. The seller had no gold to sell. COMEX reported having gold only equal to about half of the short sale in its vaults, and not all of that was available for delivery (quite a lot of it belonged to the german government) In effect the naked shorting of gold could only work because really the right hand was selling to the left hand.

The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall Streets's Oil-Price Monopoly In a move that went almost completely unreported in mainstream media, Russia has recently opened a market for the trading of physical and 'paper' oil (futures) in Moscow in Roubles. This is the most blatant challenge yet to the domination of the US dollar in world trade.

WMD in Mayfair
Recalling yesterday's Machiavelli Blog which commented on events surrounding the unfortunate death of the alleged former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko, it seems the murder investigation has now found evidence of many caches (well OK, traces) of radio active toxins in various fashionable establishments in London's West End frequented by former Russian intelligence agents.

China launches global yuan payment system
China’s Central Bank has started a global payment system which provides cross-border transactions in yuan. The China International Payment System (CIPS) intends to internationalize the yuan and challenge the US dollar's dominance.

NATO Rhetoric About Russian Threat is 'Absurd'
The reasons being given for the latest NATO military buildup in Eastern Europe, the idea that the Russian 'Russian threat' to Eastern Europe grows every day is "simply absurd," according to former US diplomat and Senate policy advisor Jim Jatras. Effectively, Jatras says, the buildup is an attempt by the US to keep Germany and France on board with Washington's world domination agenda and ...

The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall Streets's Oil-Price Monopoly
Significant moves in the global chess game have just rendered the huffing and puffing of warmonger Obama meaningless and will break Wall Street's monopoly in controlling oil markets. The move is part of Vladimir Putin's long-term strategy of decoupling Russia’s economy and especially its very significant export of oil, from the US dollar, in effect ...

Naked Bankers Go For Gold
... That gold sale in 2013 was a naked short. The seller had no gold to sell. COMEX reported having gold only equal to about half of the short sale in its vaults, and not all of that was available for delivery (quite a lot of it belonged to the german government) In effect the naked shorting of gold could only work because really the right hand was selling to the left hand.

The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall Streets's Oil-Price Monopoly In a move that went almost completely unreported in mainstream media, Russia has recently opened a market for the trading of physical and 'paper' oil (futures) in Moscow in Roubles. This is the most blatant challenge yet to the domination of the US dollar in world trade.

WMD in Mayfair
Recalling yesterday's Machiavelli Blog which commented on events surrounding the unfortunate death of the alleged former Russian agent Alexander Litvinenko, it seems the murder investigation has now found evidence of many caches (well OK, traces) of radio active toxins in various fashionable establishments in London's West End frequented by former Russian intelligence agents.

China launches global yuan payment system
China’s Central Bank has started a global payment system which provides cross-border transactions in yuan. The China International Payment System (CIPS) intends to internationalize the yuan and challenge the US dollar's dominance.

Refugee Crisis Or Existential Battle With USA for Europe
It has been clear for some years now that the USA, backed by its main NATO and EU military allies the UK and France (the FUKUS axis has been trying to provoke Russian into firing the shot that will be heard around the world and recognised as the startiung signal for World War Three.
Nothing is ever as it seems to be however, and views from middle east and far eastern journals suggest the USA is also working at destabilizing EU nations in order to force their support in its wars.

EU and US talk of war with Russia
The European People’s Party (EPP) is the largest political group in the European Parliament, and they are unerringly supportive of America's efforts to start a war with Russia. “The time of talk and persuasion with Russia is over," MEP and Vice-President of the EPP told a meeting on Tuesday, 21 April, “Now it’s time for a tough policy, and concentration on defence and security ...”

The Mediterranean Boat People Crisis - How Does Europe Deal With The Mediterranean Migrant Crisis
The numbers of migrants trying to cross from the Libya on the coast of north Africa to one of the EU's southern nations is increasing. Europe's impoverished southern nations can't cope. And in the better off nations of northern Europe immigration is a toxic issue which is fuelling the rise of anti EU parties from France to Finnland in the north and Hungary in the east. What can be done?

This Is Why The US Just Lost Its Superpower Status According To Larry Summers
As more and more countries flock to join the Chinese led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank after Britain, France Australia, India and other traditional US allies defied Washington to associate themselves with China's initiative, conservative economic pundit Larry Summers once a contender for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve delivered a sharp rebuke ...

The True Debt Disaster America Faces - Only A Fraction Of Government Debt Is Known To The Public
Politicians and the media talk about the $17 trillion debt the US Government owes to creditors. They are lying, the $17 trillion is a fraction of what america owes. The real figure is $200 trillon. And Obama's loonytoons economics are driving that up at an accelerating rate.

U.S. versus Russia War: Top Russian Politics Scolar Stephen Cohen Tells The Truth
We have been blogging for four years about the US drive for war, provocation of Russia in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine and elsewhere made it obvious. But I'm just a news junkie with a strong sense of curiosity and have wondered why the US seems set on this course. Good to see experts like Stephen Cohen, a prominent expert on, Russia are coming onside.

Does It matter If The Dollar Is Replaced?
"Without delving too deeply into Austrian economic and capital theory, just let me point out that money printing disrupts the structure of production by fraudulently changing the “price discovery process” of capitalism. Capital is allocated to projects that will never be profitably completed. Bubbles get created and collapse and businesses are suddenly damaged en mass, thus, destroying wealth. (Zero Hedge)"

What the BRICS plus Germany are really up to in the Currency Wars?
The move led by Russia and China to dump the Petrodollar has escalated into a currency war, not the kind of war we assciate Obama with but give him time. Some wars as in Ukraine, by proxy are not going so well. Others, like the one against Islamic State aka ISIS aka ISIL in the middle east are going worse. Disintegration of The American Economic Empire is manifesting itself in moves by wannabe global players towards creating a multipolar world ...

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Sunday, June 04, 2023

BRICS Centralized Clearing To End Dollar Dominance

The status of vthe USDollar as global reserve currency has beeen under threat for some years now, initially because of the way the US government abused its position as issuer of the reserve currency to force unequal terms and conditions on its trading partners, and latterly also because of US militarism, meddling in the political affairs of sovereign nations.

Recently, as we have been  reporting regularly in our Cunnency Wars feature page, China has set up the Petroyuan, an alternative to the Petrodollar which since an agreement between the USA and Saudi Arabia has been the only vehicle for settling international oil trades, and Russia has set up a rival to US owned SWIFT, the electronic, inter - currency system for settling cross - border transactions.

 China and Russia have also been increasing their geopolitical influence in South East Asia, Africa and South America and having established the BRICS trading bloc in partnership with Brazil, India and South Africa. Since the election victory of the imperialistic Democrat Party in the US 2020 electionmany other nations have submitted applications to join BRICS.

With the massive populations of China, India and Brazil , and the vast reserves of natural resources in Russia, Brazil and South Africa BRICS is already a formidable bloc economically and should the bloc launch a coordinated bid to oust the US dollar as reserve currency it will be difficult for an already weakened US / NATO blog to hold the line.

If BRICS were to agreed on how to centralize financial clearing, then they’ve already agreed on their universal settlement medium. That is Gold

Last Friday (2 June) ZeroHedge, responding to latest moves in the far east in a story titled Massive: Gold Closer to Centralized Clearing in BRICS Solution to SWIFT commented

This is huge on many levels. We will gleefully break it down best we can in our Weekly post Sunday. It lies directly on the path of “things to do” when building an alternative to SWIFT.

As promised. This podcast unpacks why the BRICS nations are agreeing on Centralized Clearing as a solution to counterparty risk necessitates Gold as the medium of exchange in *all* future international trade.

With the USA always teetering on the brink of insolvency while American society disintegrates around the bewildered geriatric in The White House while Biden's loonytoons administration continues to focus on transgender and gay pride issues, and the EU suffocating under a blanket of bureucracy, the timing for setting up a rival reserve currency could not be better. 

MORE posts on Currency Wars

 

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Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Curency Wars: China To Settle $582,300,000,000 in Yuan Worldwide In Push to Circumvent US Dollar

 The currency war we have been reporting on for ten years at least, the bid by China and its allies led by Russia and Iran, to replace the US$ as global reserve currency is hotting up.

For some time now China has quietly been making deals, first with its BRICS partners but more lately with all takers, to abandon the Bretton Woods convention by which international trades are customarily settled in U S dollars. A few years ago China, in collaboration with Russia and Iran, created the Petroyuan as a rival for the Petrodollar, the vehicle in which all crude oil futures contracts were made since the early 1970s.

Gradually at first, but now at an accelerating rate, nations are agreeing to trade in Yuan or in the currency of the vendor's nation. The Chinese government says it’s now signed $582.3 billion worth of global currency settlement agreements that will exclusively utilize the yuan.

According to a new report from the Chinese state news organisation, China Daily, the country’s central bank has inked deals with more than 40 countries and regions since 2016.

As for the countries involved in the pacts, China highlights Russia, Venezuela, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

China says its moves are designed to boost the yuan’s role in international trade and circumvent the need of developing nations to depend on the US dollar and thus be vulnerable to coercion by the US government. The Mafia - like way Washington operates its resrve currency scam has been illustrated by the response to the war in Ukraine. The American government tried to stop weaker nations doing business with Russia by threatening economic sanctions on those countries which broke US imposed trade embargoes.

A statement from China's overseas trade department reads: “There is a need to promote cross-border yuan settlement to make bilateral trade more efficient and boost the yuan’s internationalization process…

To be sure, cross-border trade settlement in the yuan will reduce many countries’ dependence on the US dollar.”

China says direct settlement in the yuan will also shield countries against the “weaponized dollar”, pointing to sanctions levied against Russia in the aftermath of the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

As should now be clear to anyone who follows international news, the sanctions imosed on trade with Russia by the USA, EU and NATO has backfired badly and harmed the sanctioning nations more than those targeted. This is because business that previously have been conducted directly between Russia and nations involved in sanctions is now being routed via China, India, Pakistan, Itan, Syria and Turkey.

*****

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Sunday, May 08, 2022

As the war in Ukraine cripples western economies the global power balance slides further to the east

 authored by Quoth The Raven, Fringe Finance

Russia Is Returning To The Gold Standard And China Is Going To Be Next

The most profound seismic shift in the global monetary bedrock in decades is happening right before our eyes, and no one seems to notice or care. Eventually, they will have to. 

No sooner was it that I wrote an article talking about how Russia was going to back the ruble with gold than “one of the Russia’s most powerful security/intelligence officers and a close ally of Putin” has admitted the country’s intentions to do just that.

And I’m predicting that no sooner will the gravity of this decision finally sink in with the West that China will follow closely in Russia’s footsteps and do the same.

Russia backing its currency with gold represents one of the most drastic changes to the foreign currency market in decades. As of 2022, precisely zero countries still adhere to a gold standard, though many countries still hold gold in reserve.

Gold reserves of largest gold holding countries worldwide as of March 2022(in metric tons) / Statista

The new global monetary system is likely going to look like Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia and other countries with commodity-backed, sound money on one side - and the west and our allies, with our “infinite” fiat, under the tutelage of rocket surgeon Neel Kashkari, on the other. 

Despite the enormity of the situation, the news hasn’t really been digested by global markets yet. The FX market has been relatively calm, but for the ruble strengthening, and gold prices have crashed so far this week, with front month futures falling nearly $50/oz. on Monday, back down to about $1,860/oz.

Image
Ruble vs. Euro chart from Zero Hedge

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Aside from the FX market, the news also hasn’t been digested by US politicians or financial “thought leaders” yet.

However, there are underground rumblings starting to catch the ears of those who are actively listening. Ronan Manly wrote for BullionStar.com last week:

On Tuesday 26 April in an interview with newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG), the Secretary of the Russian Federation’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said that Russian experts are working on a project to back the Russian ruble with gold and other commodities.

Manly was kind enough to translate the interview with RG, which stated Russia’s intentions to back the ruble with gold in crystal clear fashion:

RG Question: And what do we need to do to ensure the ruble’s sovereignty?

Nikolai Patrushev: “For any national financial system to be sovereignized, its means of payment must have intrinsic value and price stability, without being pegged to the dollar.

Now experts are working on a project proposed by the scientific community to create a two-circuit monetary and financial system.

In particular, it is proposed to determine the value of the ruble, which should be backed by both gold and a group of goods that are currency values, and to put the ruble exchange rate in line with the real purchasing power parity.”

Manly concludes, matter-of-factly:

So there you have it. The Russian Government is actively working on creating a gold and commodity backed Russian ruble with intrinsic value which is outside the orbit of the US dollar. 

What we are seeing now is Nikolai Patrushev and the Kremlin confirming this simple equation of linking the Russian ruble to gold and commodities. In other words, the beginning of a multilateral gold and commodity backed monetary system, i.e. Bretton Woods III. 

 https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/russia-is-returning-to-the-gold-standard?s=r

 

MORE POSTS ON THE CURRENCY WAR

 

 

 

Friday, March 18, 2022

The Dominance Of The U.S. Dollar Is Fading Right Before Our Eyes

 

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance via Zero Hedge  
18 March 2022

It was just a couple of weeks ago that I wrote an article arguing that the economic sanctions we have cast upon in Russia, due to its invasion of Ukraine, likely mark the beginning of a period where China and Russia would bifurcate the global monetary system, leading them to eventually challenge the U.S. dollar’s reserve status. 

Now, Saudi Arabia is joining the fray, further threatening to tip the balance of the global monetary scales that have kept the U.S. dollar afloat for decades.

The fact that predictions of a “new economy” and “new monetary system” only exist on fringe blogs like mine and haven’t gone mainstream given the current economic situation with Russia (even amidst our abuses of printing the dollar over the last several decades) is baffling to me.

As I noted to Andy Schectman in a recent podcast, our quality of life in the United States and our nation’s entire economy is an elephant balancing, on one leg, on the toothpick of the U.S. dollar’s reserve status.

Our quality of life relies solely in our unique ability to import the goods and services that we use and need on a daily basis, while exporting US dollars. We’ve been able to print trillions of U.S. dollars into existence over the last couple of years - monetary policy that is anything but sound, regardless of whether or not your currency has global reserve status – because of the luxuries afforded to us by the dollar’s global reserve status.

But this reserve status, and the $30 trillion in debt we have accrued and convinced ourselves we will never have to pay, quickly go from being long-term liabilities that we can theoretically ignore to current liabilities that we must address if the dollar is ever legitimately challenged.


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Challenging the dollar’s reserve status would be an obvious and immediate catalyst that would flip everything we think we know about economics in our country on its head. Our monetary policy blind spots, that we have been willfully ignoring for decades, would instantly become leverage for the rest of the world.

The stage appears to remain set for this to happen. Globally, if you are an enemy of the United States, the situation hasn’t looked better to challenge the U.S. dollar, maybe ever, than it does now:

  • We have run up a mountain of debt and grossly expanded our money supply in an extremely short period of time

  • We are the most reliant we have ever been on other countries to import goods and services

  • We have a presidential administration that (1) doesn’t understand basic economics and (2) is limiting our nation’s ability to produce commodities, which act as a foundation for a country’s inherent wealth

  • We are about to enter into a economic recession

  • Inflation is setting records and is already bankrupting the middle and lower class of our nation, before even considering a potential challenge to the dollar

And while a week or two ago I was only worried about China and Russia, now that the world has been forced to pick economic sides, other nations are throwing their respective hats in the ring, too.

Saudi Arabia, which is a nation of major consequence economically due to its significant oil and gas reserves, has reportedly embraced the idea of accepting Yuan instead of dollars for Chinese oil sales.

Not unlike Russia and China’s plans to de-dollarize, that date back nearly a decade, the Saudis have been considering this idea for six years already. And not unlike Russia and China’s new economic tie-up, the catalyst for speeding up the process has been U.S. foreign policy:

Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would dent the U.S. dollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia.

The talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom, the people said.

The consideration by Saudi Arabia is consequential.

It shows that other nations, when forced to choose sides between the U.S. and its foes, don’t feel obligated to commit to the U.S. dollar, further undermining the world’s perception about the dollar’s strength.

Not unlike Russia, Saudi Arabia is a country that, regardless of how much its currency may “devalue” versus a fiat basket of currencies, is still backed by finite resources.

This gives the country and its currency intrinsic strength. Russia seems to understand this. In fact, just this morning, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, likely alluding to this fact, said that economic sanctions against Russia make the country “stronger”.

Saudi Arabia is now another serious name on the list of contenders who have the currency bite to back up the economic rhetoric bark of challenging the dollar.

As The Wall Street Journal notes, the Saudis have “traded oil exclusively in dollars since 1974, in a deal with the Nixon administration that included security guarantees for the kingdom.”

The U.S. dollar’s ties to oil have been crucial in helping prop up the currency’s demand globally. These ties have also helped drum up the psychological buy-in necessary for the world to collectively accept that “the next guy” is going to want their U.S. dollars.

But given the alliance between Russia and China – and the newfound alliance between Saudi Arabia and China - it looks as though that confidence game might be coming to an end right before our very eyes.

In other words, the dollar could be fading from the global picture like Marty McFly’s brother from that family photo in Back to the Future.

We may not notice it right away…

…but eventually it’ll be clear.

Far be it for me too be a harbinger of too many uncomfortable predictions at once, but, as I wrote last year, I also strongly believe that China will eventually back its forthcoming digital currency with gold to further strengthen its economic and monetary posture globally.

The contrast between a forthcoming divided global economy would be stark: nations like China and Russia seem genuinely interested in the idea of sound money backed by commodities, while the United States seems preoccupied with jargon filled academic circle jerks trying to convince ourselves that debt is money that “we owe to ourselves”, to quote Paul Krugman, and that money literally grows on trees.

If given the choice between the two ideologies, where do you think the world is going to wind up?

I’m not sure we’re ready to embrace the answer here in the United States, but we better get ready to.

--

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Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Currency Wars - Now The Euro Challenges The Mighty Dollar

Whisper it softly but we Boggart Bloggers sense a change in public mood. We have warned many time over the past two years that the pandemic we were living through was a pandemic of fear rather than a plague caused by an infectious agent. We,  an Information Networks and Systems Consultant, an Accountant and a lecturer in mechanics and engineering, all now retired and with time on their hands to research, crunch numbers and analyse "The Science" concluded the case for lockdows, mask mandates and mandatory vaccines was illogical and unsupported by verifianle evidence, (mathematical models are not evidence.) We concluded something else was going on, and when we dug deeply we found that many things were going on.

Our http://www,greenteethmm.com/currency-wars.shtmlcurrency wars feature has taken a back seat these past two years as the COVID  pandemic (or propaganda pandemic as some people might say,) has pushed all other stories aside. In our opinion however, the pandemic has served as a convenient smokescreen behind which all sorts of elitist skulduggery has been going on, hidden from the view of the general population.

In Europe, Brexit is done and dusted, the UK economy though hit by the irrational and panic stricken responses to the pandemic as all other major economies have been, is doing well while the European Union (EU), the globalist project aimed as completing the trio of superpowers needed to create an Orwellian dystopia, seems to be falling apart politically and economically. Well we Brits always knew Europe needed us far more than we needed Europe.

And as if to confirm this, the UK£ has been doing remarkably well in currency markets.

It is somewhat surprising then that investment bankers Goldman Sachs this week predicted that the Eurozone would grow at a faster pace than the U.S. in 2022, predicting growth 4.4 percent for EU and only 3.5 percent for U.S. GDP. The latest World Bank forecast, also from January, still sees the U.S. ahead, if only by a paper-thin margin of 0.1 percent, while the new IMF outlook is yet to be released.

As our finance expert Phil T. Looker always likes to remind us GDP is a next to useless measure of real economic health as it only measures the level of churn in an economy. The old analogy is Joe wins $500 on a scratchcard, so the pays Jeff the mechanic the $500 he owes for car repairs. Jeff takes the cash and pays Simon the accountant for sorting out his little problem with the Taxman. Simon decides his office is looking a bit dingy and hires Will the decorator to freshen up the decor. Will passes the money on to Mandy the prostitute in gratitude for her comforting him when his wife left, his mother was sent to prison and and his dog died all on the same day. Mandy looked in the mirror, decided her face was looking a bit tired and spent the money on a spa day. And the beautician, feeling lucky, blows the whole lot on scratch cards.

So Joe's $500 has increased GDP by $3000 yet no extra wealth has been created. But hey - ho, in a system reliant on fiat money, as John Steinbeck wrote, "The monster must grow or else it dies, and for it to grow the monster must be fed," and measuring the heath of the economy by GDP is how we feed the monster. Thus 'growth' is the keyword even though ALL major economies the rate of price inflation is higher than the rate of growth, thus they are in fact contracting and all but the super rich are becoming poorer. But bankers make the rules not us, so on we go.

While mainstream business journalists are still arguing over who will trump whom for economic growth this year, Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes that there are other indicators that already show the Eurozone’s growing economic prowess and international importance

While the Eurozone has seen output stagnate its single currency, The Euro has been doing quite well. The value of global transactions settled in Euro has been slowly gaining ground on  the sum total of UD dollar transactions, data from the Swift international payment network indicates, hinting at increased activity around the currency. 

In October 2020, Euro transaction value briefly moved ahead of the U.S. dollar, while in the longer term the gap between the two currencies on the world stage has become considerable smaller since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. 

Goldman Sachs report that reasons for this include the EU’s coordinated efforts to prop up its economy in the current crisis and its continued zero-interest fiscal policy, both of which can only be harmful to the collective EU economy in the long term, and that since the inauguration of the economically illiterate Biden regime in Washington D.C. faith in the U.S. economy and its future prospects is crumbling. According to CNBC, uncertainty around President Joe Biden’s “Built Back Better” economic package continues to harm confidence in the USA, while far left lunacies like the Green New Deal threaten to bankrupt the Us economy while achieving nothing other than to score points with climate change whingers like Greta Thunberg and the unwashed crusties of Exstinktion Rebellion.

Here's an inforgraphic lifted from Statia showing the narrowing of the gap between Euro and US dollar transactions.

Infographic: Euro Challenges U.S. Dollar as Global Currency | Statista

You will find more infographics on the topic at Statista

Looking  at only payments between parties from different currency zones – thereby excluding international payments between different Eurozone countries – the U.S. dollar still retains its edge as a global trade currency. The gap to the Euro stood at around 3 percent of transaction value in November 2021. Yet, economists have shown surprise at the Euro’s general international success as a strong second player since the U.S. dollar was long seen as the singular international trade currency.

It is also worth mentioning that another reserve currency is performing strongly though on a smalled scale. The UK pound, though by no means a challenger to either Euro or Dollar is the forgotten currency of the bunch, and for decades has been used mainly for trade between nations in the British Commonwealth, (which represents about a third of the global population mainly due to India, Pakistan, Nigeria and Bangladesh being members. The reasons for this small rally in the popularity of the £ are less clear but as we have reported extensively elsewhere in this page, The People's Republic of China has been busy trying to promote its Yuan (Renminbi) as a reserve currency so it could be that both the Euro and The Pound are benefitting from smalled economies fear of getting too deeply in hoch to the predatory superpowers, The USA and China.


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Monday, April 30, 2018

Russia and China declare all out war on the Petrodolar


"WTF has China's new oil futures market to do with us Minds punters?" you might well ask.
It is in fact going to affect us all not just commodities traders, oil speculators and hedge fund managers. The thing is the Chinese (and their BFFs The Russians and Iranians did not just set up this venture because they fancied dabbling in the oil trade.

The launch of the gold backed Petroyouan on the Shanghai financial markets is the culmination of several years manoeuvreing by China and its allies to create a rival trading system to the Petrodollar which has dominated international trade for over forty years. I reported on the news HERE and in several other posts.

Few people are aware of how reliant the US economy has become on the position of the US$ as the global reserve currency. This is because mainstream media never reports on it and TV pundits dare not mention it for fear of losing their lucrative gigs as talking heads on TV. I have talked about it since the very beginning, when Saddam Hussein decided he didn't need the Petrodollar, modern technology could trade his oil for any currency he fancied. And we all know what happened to him.
Nothing will change overnight, or next month or for several months, but gradually we will see a further shift of economic power from west to east. And that will affect prices, jobs, our standards of living and much more

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