
The Petrodollar system has propped up the US economy for 50 years - picture: sbcgold.com
In spite of the very fragile ceasefire in the conflict between the USA / Israel alliance and Iran, the theocratic regime of the Muslim nation has opened a new front in the war by weaponising the Strait of Hormuz against The Petrodollar.
Having made this strait a de facto toll gate at the entrance to the Persian Gulf, the Iranians are demanding that commercial vessels pay hefty transit fees in yuan or Bitcoin, according to multiple reports form news organisations in the middle east. As well as signalling a further deepening of Chinese-Iranian economic cooperation it brings a new dimension to Ian's asymmetric warfare. A huge proportion of the world's hydrocarbons supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz and significant reductions in shipping movements will trigger a global crisis.
China, Russia and Iran along with their BRICS partners have been threatening currency wars with the aim of replacing or at least offering a serious rival to the US Dollar as the primary global reserve curency.
For years, Russia and the two Asian allies have accused Washington of using the dollar's dominance in global trade as a weapon, imposing sanctions and inflicting economic pain on rivals through the dollar-dominated financial system.
Now the ongoing war aound The Gulf - and lets not fool ouselves that the current ceasefire will turn into lasting peace - is forcing a fundamental reassessment of the petrodollar system that has underpinned US financial hegemony for decades. This informal arrangement, in which Gulf oil producers price crude in dollars and reinvest revenues in US assets, emerged as a cornerstone of American economic power in the 1970s and has held since then. But with the US-Israeli campaign against Iran now in its second month, the strait’s uncertain fate is raising urgent questions about whether that order can survive.
Iran has so far managed to withstand the US-Israeli attack and inflict some damage on Israel and US allies around The Gulf, even after significant casualties aming its leadership, and has been able to assert strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz. Thus they have added a currency war to the shooting war.
This means Iran has been able to insist it will only accept payment for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in Chinese Yuan or crypto currencies, . At least two vessels have so far settled the transit fees in Yuan via a Chinese maritime services company which is acting as an intermediary and handling payment to the Iranian authorities.
This is a significant even though analysts debate if it can ultimately become decisive in the longer run. The de-dollarisation rhetoric has emanated from China, Russia, Iran and their BRICS partners for years, without materialising into meaningful change. Now, if one of the vital choke points through which one-fifth of the world's petroleum passes becomes conditional on currency denomination that is meaningful.
The practical consequence, even if it was partially adopted, would be a bifurcated global oil market. One where yuan-denominated barrels flowing through Hormuz for payment in China's currency in the Chinese payment system CIPS ( Cross-Border Interbank Payment System) and dollar-denominated barrels are rerouted at a high additional cost and time for those who are not using Chinese currency.
Further, Iran is employing a broader mechanism employing informal transactions in cryptocurrency to effectively circumvent the US financial system. Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University, said that the yuan-for-passage is more likely to gain international acceptance than a complete blockade.
Of far more concern to banks and businesses in the west if oil shipments through the strait are to be transacted in currencies other than the dollar, particularly the Chinese yuan and the Iranian rial the Gulf states, driven by security concerns, begin to distance themselves from the dollar-based energy trade, the ripple effects could be profound: reduced demand for the greenback, waning appetite for US Treasury debt, and a gradual erosion of the dollar’s reserve currency status.
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Demented Joe Biden believes in his befuddled way that he will leave office with the USA in better shape than when he took over. In fact Dopey Joe is going out having made his country the world's biggest hate monger, universally loathed and mistrusted and also regarded as a nation totally motivated by greed and the lust for power.
It is hard to say how or even if Trump can change things. Will he return the US to the staus of leading global superpower or only cover the rotting remains of what was a respected nation with a nice new coat of paint?
The imbecile neocons who have been in power for the past four years, having claimed victory in a highly suspect election were, for the past three yeas and now are simply expressing their hatred of Russia through what may be a last ditch effort to start WW3. Any excuses to the contrary are lies.
To prompt their proxy in the desired war with Russia, the asinine Ukies to lauch a military attack on the sovereign territory of Turkey, a member of NATO, is beyond stupid. Are the non - demented members of the Biden White House team so off their faces on cocaine and hash they though having their lapdogs strike a gas pipeline inside Turkey would perhaps provoke a Russian response against a NATO ally?
In fact, had the attack suceeded, it would have only hurt America's allies, the NATO members in Europe that still depend on Russian gas. But unlike the Nordstream pipelne sabotage, which caused immense economic harm to some west European nations, including Germany, the Turkstream pipeline attack failed, a squadron of Ukrainian drones were shot down by Turkey's Russian made air defence systems.
The Current EU leadership could not be more defective if they were intentionally hand picked - and it's possible they were. There's no reason to keep pummeling the EU except for fun or because it's the proper thing for a government brain dead drone to do. The EU is perfectly capable of keeping itself down while feeling smug about it. Even now, with Ukraine in ruins and a generation of young men wasted, they are trying to prolong the war and block a Trump led bid to end the slaughter.
Then there's the obvious hope that something the criminals in Kiev do will hamstring Trump forcing him to keep Endless War Alive.
There's national security and there's being a War Criminal. US Democrats are War Criminals and the only way to fix the problem is to send many to jail for the rest of their lives. Not doing this will only make the next iteration of the imbecile World Domination Club even worse and much better planned and executed.
The US can not keep the US Dollar as the world reserve currency for many more years if it does not get spending and the growing national debt under control. The Federal Reserve can do nothing except trying to buy down long term rates using monetized debt. And that is only temporary. Eventually they will stop on their own or because nobody except the Fed will buy US debt anymore. When that happens, long term US$ bond yields rates will rise and rise and rise, passing even Greek levels. Since the US debt is so huge $36trillion dollars, Washington now needs to borrow to pay interest on US debt, eventually nobody will buy UST debt since it means they are using hard earned national savings simply to cover the interest they are being paid.
Only an idiot would think the world will have a secret meeting where they decide to boycott US debt. Rather, long term rates will rise and rise. The share of the deficit that covers interest expense currently about 12% will rise to over 50%. People will independently decide that US debt is a joke of an investment and will put their savings somewhere else. Then things will snowball.
So, if the world doesn't lose respect for the US because it's the world's biggest hate monger, it will eventually stop buying its debt because the ponzi has become too obvious to ignore any longer and there's no hope of it ever turning around. Or both. And with Trump's inauguartion only a few days away, the warmongers have run out of time. World War Three canot save them now, the dream of global hefemony is fading fast and no amount of provocations by the puppet regime chan change that.
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