Sunday, January 23, 2022

Storm Clouds Gathering Over Ukraine - Or Just The Usual Geopolitical Games

Sunday 23 January 2022

As the COVID-19 Killer Virus Pandemic narrative crumbles under the weight of evidence that the vaccines don't work and therefore vaccine passports are irrelevant, masks are useless, and lockdowns only trash national economies and destroy businesses, the elites are desperately looking for another scare story to distract public attention from the godawful mess they have made with their globalisation plans, green energy follies and open borders insanity.

Thus last weekBritain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson accused Russia of plotting to install a puppet leader in Kiev, and warned European Union leaders, particularly the newly installed government of Germany one suspects, against appeasement over Vladimir Putin’s demands over Ukraine, primarily that the western powers honour an agreement that NATO and the EU would not enroll former Warsaw Pact nations and Soviet Republics as members.

While the west now claims there was no such treaty, Russia takes a different view. Who is right? Well it'd difficult to say really. There was certainly a well documents informal deal between Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton that in exchange for Russia not obstructing German reunification, NATO would not expand into the former Warsaw Pact countries but because the Clinton era was a period of post - cold war rapproachment between Russia and the west this was never formalised as a treaty.

Since then east - west relations have deteriorated and gentlemens' agreements no longer count for much and as Russia, in its own perspective, masses troops close to the Ukraine border ostensibly for the protection of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, the west sees the moves by Moscow as indicative of Russian ambitions to annexe more Ukrainian territory.

While Johnson tries to put the UK at the head of an international effort to dissuade Russia from acting against Ukraine, Germany vacillates because of the country's dependence on Russian oil and gas due to the catastrophic failure of sustainable energy policies promoted by 'The Gren Blob' of bureaucrats, academics and the media. Meanwhile the USA's piss - poor, demented, geriatric president Joe Biden first threatens military action if Russia moves against Ukraine, then backs down, then promises trade sanctions such as have never been seen before, which would hit America's allies far harder that they would Russia and then appeared to condone a 'minor incursion' by Russian troops into Ukraine.

And while Emmanuel Macron ran around threatening trade war with the UK, internment camps for the unvaccinated and promises more help for illegal immigrants, UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss,  released specially declassified intelligence naming Yevhen Murayev, a former Ukrainian MP, as the Kremlin’s preferred candidate to take over the country following an invasion.

Britain is also understood to be considering backing the suspension of Russia from the Swift international payment scheme. Has our government forgotten that five years ago Russia and China launche a cross - border payments system to rival SWIFT and that over 100 counties (chiefly the ones that do most of their trsde with Russia, China and that bloc's allies,) are now involved in that system.

Apparently they have because Johnson believes possible sanctions “cannot exclude” Nordstream II, the controversial gas pipeline between Russia and the EU, and is due to hold calls with G7 leaders to finalise a “sanction coalition” to take targeted measures against oligarchs supporting the Russian president. So while excluding Russia from SWIFT would have little effect on Russia, which could easily trade through proxies, European Union member states would be plunged into an even deeper energy crisis than they are currently enduring.

Western leaders getting their kickers in a twist because they suspect Putin is planning to overthrow the puppet regime installed by the USA / NATO / EU sponsored colour revolution in 2014 and replace it with a puppet regime loyal to Moscow is nothing but a game of tit for tat I'd say.

But the Kiev government overthown in 2014 was democratically elected, unfortunately it just wasn't the government the west wanted in Ukraine.

This Geopolitical posturing demonstrates again how out of touch with the people of nations they lead the western leaders are. The Russian people want war as much as other Europeans and Americans or in a nutshell they do not want war any more than you or I. Putin had the support of his people over the Crimea, but they are not so solid on the Donetsk issue. If Russia invaded the Ukraine and put a puppet in charge it would have to be a repressive regime that would have to backed financially by Russia at the economic expense of the Russian people. In the long run Putin would be held to account by the Russian people.

How long would it take for Russia to defeat and impose a puppet regime in Ukraine and at what cost. Ukraine is not a small, impotent nation as some warmongers have claimed in support of their Russian bullying narrative. Ukraine is the second largest nation in Europe by land area after Russia and has a population of 40 million and a well equipped and well trained military, currently being supplied with 'lethal aid' by the biden regime.  The Ukrainians would put up a fight and could easily resist as effectively as the Finns did in 1940-41. There would be resistance however and the result would be NATO having to strengthen its borders and provide routes for support to the Ukrainian resistance. It would also lead to an arms race, that the American Industrial Military complex would welcome, independent of who is President. The Europeans would have to find alternative energy supplies, and perhaps should start doing so now. 

But any such scenario overlooks the fact that the man threat to American / European economic hegemony is China, and the communist regime in the people's republic would see any kerfuffle involving the NATO powers and Russia as an opportunity. 

Putin would be a fool to go ahead and invade the Ukraine now. He might have early successes, but in the long run it will be a disaster for him as I doubt the Russian people would go along with it as it would have disastrous economic consequences for them. It is equally true however, that Biden, Johnson and other weaetern leaders would be equally foolish to continue provoking Russia. In the European energy crisis Putin holds all the aces, were Germany persuaded to back the cancellation of Nord Stream 2 fuel and energy prices in Europe would rocked, economic output would stall and the green energy policies which we are told will transform life on earth will be exposed as another scam by the elites and the corporate cartels.

A shooting war with Russia would be catastrophic for Europe, and for America too because should hostilities break out China would certainly involve itself in support of its ally, but another cold war could have equally far reaching consequences as the west now depends on Chinese and South East Asian manufavturing for consumer goods as much as it depends on Russia for coal, oil and gas. Does anyone else get the feeling that the political virtue signalling which has dominated western policy making for two decades is about to be exposed for the vacuous charade it always was.


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