We Boggart Bloggers don't like to say, "We Told You So," we absolutely LOVE it.
The strategy adopted by the collectively demented Biden administration in the USA and supported by its allies in NATO and the European Union against Russia in Ukraine is fast proving a total fiasco, sanctioning Russia has backfired on the EU with Germany and several other nations now so short of natural gas for industry and domestic use they are having to introduce rationing. There have also been unintended consequences for international food and fertiliser which will inevitably worsen in the coming months.
EU countries which rely heavily on Russian oil and gas as a result of dismantling their own energy infrastructure in pursuit of idiotic 'Net Zero' targets set by the Brussels bureaucrats on the advice of a 15 year old Swedish retard are now doomed to the worst energy crisis since the 1970s when the cold weather arrives. With no way of averting the crisis they are also awakening to the threat of another mass migration from the starving Middle East and Africa, which depend on exported Ukrainian and Russian wheat for food because the war has cut off shipping routes through The Black Sea.
The full weight of this migration crisis will fall on the EU, which was flooded with a million illiterate, uneducated, unemployable, sex starved migrants in 2015 during the war in Syria and with whom it has struggled to cope in the years since. What will the EU do with a million or more others whom it cannot prevent from coming?
Ukrainian wheat exports are stuck in ports blockaded by the Russian Black Sea fleet. Russian exports are blocked by United Nation sanctions enforced by the USA. The world was told these sanctions would cripple the Russian economy and force Putin to abandon his military adventure in Ukraine. These have not only failed to achieve their objective but are seriously hurting the rest of the world, while Russia sells its gas and oil through proxies to Asia, Africa and under the counter to European nations brave or desperate enough to stand out from the crowd.
Why was none of this foreseen by the highly paid 'experts' who advise governments before the sanctions were imposed, when three retired old gits like us could see it in technicolour and 3D. Was
it due to the arrogance of NATO governments that designed their sanctions in the
exercise of so-called smart power? Turned out to be stupid power didn't it. Most stupid of all is the way those governments and their 'experts' are crying foul now Russia's retaliatory sanctions are hitting the west.
The Sanctions, deceitfully described as the toughest ever, appear to have been planned on the assumption that Russia's economy would quickly fold under them and the resulting political chaos in Moscow would trigger the removal of Vladimir Putin from the presidency. But the Russian economy prospered, the Rouble did not collapse, it grew stronger and Putin is still in control. The Russian army has captured 20 per cent of eastern Ukraine and intends to stay there until whatever peace is agreed and probably longer.
The other half of the strategy, based on the assumption that defensively-armed Ukrainian forces could defeat the Russians without NATO soldiers trained in hi-tech warfare fighting on the ground alongside them, has also failed.
In spite of all this, there is no evidence that Nato policy is being re-thought. The
Russians are embedded in Ukraine and cannot be dislodged without direct, boots on the ground intervention from NATO, and this is not going to happen mainly because smaller NATO members that have borders with Russia would be vulnerable and several large and economically powerful NATO members are dependent of Russia for gas and electricity. Rarely has the phrase
‘sleep-walking to disaster’ seemed more apt now that we see the
horrifying result. Putin has the west over a barrell (of oil) and is shafting us up the (Nord Stream) pipeline.
Foreign policy ‘realists’ blame successive US administrations for provoking the war by expanding NATO eastward after the Soviet Union fell and inviting Ukraine to join. This is denied by war hawks, who claim NATO was never a threat to Russia even while its recruitment policy over the past 35 years is evidence that the alliance was working to surround Russia. There were even plans to recruit Georgia and Kazakhstan to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. NATO may officially be defensive but there is little difference between a defensive and offensive alliance when it can transform itself from one to the other in an instant as the Russians fear.
The latest delusional prognostication from Washington is that the Russians will feel the full bite of sanctions this autumn but there is no reason to believe this is anything but wishful thinking born of desperation that NATO ’s failed policies will somehow come right.
The realist counter-argument to the proposal to admit Ukraine to NATO, that Russia is genuinely
paranoid about the deployment of mainly American Nato troops and
missiles on its western border, is dismissed as naïve sympathy for an
anti-West aggressor who is a permanent threat to peace. But while the hawks in Washington, London and Paris can only point to a minor incursion into Georgia since the fall of the Soviet Union to back up their claim that Russia is an expansionist power, the Russians cite inverventions by the USA and NATO in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, The Balkans after the break up of Yugoslavia, and indirectly in Yemen to prove that far from being a mutual defence treaty, NATO has appointed itself the world's policeman, the military wing of The United Nations.
Everyone knew well in advance that Putin would invade Ukraine. The question is: why, if Biden wasn’t going to try to prevent war by negotiating with the Russian leader, the West did not give more thought to dealing the dire consequences on which it has since impaled itself?
The energy crisis was unfolding long before sanctions cut off Russian oil and gas, an action which would
inevitably aggravate it, were imposed. The blockade of Ukraine’s main
wheat export port of Odessa was foreseeable. The ensuing shortage of
wheat in the Middle East and Africa was an inevitable consequence. Was
any thought given to other ways to feed these peoples? Was there any contingency plan?
Another increasingly significant factor in the direction the conflict may now take of the conflict is public opinion, especially in Europe as people begin to suffer the full economic and social impact of the choices their leaders have made.Runaway inflation, fuel poverty, cold showers, empty supermarket shelves ... People will not give indefinite support to a cause in which they perceive no direct national stake and which has only negative effects on them. Ukraine was portrayed as a necessary ‘good war’ but looks more and more like a bad one for which the west has no exit strategy.
The EU expects Putin to weaponise or even totally cut off its energy exports to Germany and northern Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline, and has asked member countries to reduce their gas usage by 15 per cent between August and March. It proposes to grant itself powers to enforce the limitation thus usurping a little more of member states' sovereignty.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained hypocritically to the media that ‘Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon’. Translation – we can sanction Russia but it’s not fair for Russia to sanction us.