Brace Yourselves: The Impact Of The Ukraine War Is About To Start Hitting Us Harder

While mainstream media in western Europe and North America continues to sing the paraises of Ukraine's armeed fgorces and report the success of the counteroffensive as the Russians are pushed back many miles each day, more perceptive people recognise that although the Ukrainians, supported by American and European weapons and cash, have fought bravely in resisting the onslaught faced over the past eighteen months, there is no doubt that in reality Ukraine is not winning or even holding their own, the country is being reduced to rubble.
 

Meanwhile a fact about the war that is hardly acknowledges is just how much worse the impact of the conflict could have been on a global scale had Russia not shown considerable restraint in the face of constant provocations by Ukraine and its non - combatant allies. Mainstream media has repeatedly commented on Russian brutality having conveniently forgotten the carpet bombing by NATO allies of Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. In fact Russia has not taken advantage of its overwhelming air superiority and in view of Zelensky's demands for American and European war planes this is remarkable.

But maybe Moscow is playing a different game. Knowing that escalating the shooting war to an air war or a bombing campaign could easily push NATO to direct involvement on the ground and lead to the war spilling beyond Ukrainian territory, has Putin found a better, more subtle weapon?

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities Russia was the world’s leading exporter of grain and fertilizer and provided around 50% of the EU’s gas needs. Ukraine is also a major exporter of grain, second only to Russia among the worlds leading exporters. . The complete disruption of supply lines for any of these vital commodities would result in catastrophe, particularly for the world's poorer nations.

The twin disaster of  lousy harvest yields due to lack of nitrate based fertiliser and lack of grain exports last year was largely thanks to two crucial agreements secured early in the conflict: the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered mainly by President Erdogan of Turkey with the support of the United Nations. Under the terms of the initiative Russia allowed Ukraine to continue exporting grain via the Black Sea, and a simlar deal that allowed Russian to keep the gas flowing to Europe via Ukraine. But the former has just been suspended, and the latter could soon be terminated.by Russia in reprisal for Ukraine's launching drone attacks deep into Russian territory. Should those things happen the  true cost of this war to the west and the third world would greatly increase to be counted not in Dollars, Euros or Yuan but in human life and suffering.

When Erdoghan's grain deal was signed last July, U N Secretary General António Guterres,  called it a “beacon of hope” — and rightly so. Reaching an agreement of this kind raised hopes that the two sides were ready to talk and it might prove the first step on the way to a negotiated settlement. On a more practical level it contributed to keeping grain prices low and avoided a collapse in Ukrainian exports (which declined by around 30%) — possibly preventing a global humanitarian disaster as many African, Middle Eastern and South East Asian nations depend on Russian and Ukrainian grain supplied through the U N World Food Prograsm. Over the past year, more than 1,000 ships (containing nearly 33 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs) left Ukraine from three Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.

On July 17,  however, Putin pulled out of the deal having warned for several months that he could do so if the west continued increasing economic sanctions on Russia and provinding the Zelensky regime with the means to escalate the conflict. Throughout this period the deal had beeen under growing strain, with the Kremlin claiming that the West wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain, which allowed for more Russian agricultural and fertiliser exports. For this to happen, Russia insisted on reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the Swift international payment system and, among other things, the unblocking of assets and accounts of those Russian companies involved in food and fertiliser exports.

But the most important of The Kremlin's demands was the resumption of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which runs from the Russian city of Togliatti to various Black Sea ports in Ukraine, and which prior to the war exported 2.5 million tonnes of ammonia annually. 

Leaders of the European nations are being affected seem to care more about kowtowing to the U S administration of demented Joe Biden and the unelected bureaucrats who run the EU than about the welfare of the people whose interests they are elected to serve. If they cared about their own nation and the senseless wasting of the lives of young Ukrainian and Russian soldiers as much as they do about toeing the line dictated by The White House (because make no mistake, America has been the main driver of this conflict,) and honouring their commitments to sanction Russia into economic ruin (even though it is obvious sanctions have failed and hit the sanctioning nations harder than the target.

There was a peace deal, including Ukraine neutrality, brokered again by Turkey's president and signed by Putin and Zelenskyy but Boris Johnson was dispatched to Kiev by The White House to forbid and contact between Russia and Ukraine that was not pre - approved by Washington. 

Putin had as a sign of good faith begun pulling troops out but the NATO powers once again welched on the deal.  In 1990 James Baker had promised the Russians, if they pulled their military out of East Germany letting NATO in, that NATO would not move 1 inch East.
Russia gave that huge concession, again in good faith, and almost immediately former Warsaw Pact nations including Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Hungary and The Czech Republic were recruited into NATO. On gaining independence Ukraine had been neutral, and very friendly with Russia (with most people including comedian Zelenskyy speaking only Russian), then suddenly a colour revolution in 2014, engineered by the CIA  overthrew a corrupt but democratically elected government and replaced it with a government dominated by neo - Nazi who ensured their election by banning opposition parties. 

After that 2014 coup stories about Joe Biden and the scandals attached to the dealings of his crooked, debauched son Hunter began to emerge. Western money started pouring into Ukraine, US funded bioweapons research labs sprang up faster than daffodils in the spring. 

 Russia probably guessed that the US wanted to use Crimea as their own naval base to gain dominance of The Black Sea and took it over. Then NATO built a 400K military in Ukraine, and between 2014 and the start of the special military operation 14000 civilians in Donbas were killed, mostly by artillery fire from NATO supplied weapons operated by soldiers trained in NATO member states. Ukraine was obviously becoming a military threat so, Russia acted, just as the US would act if the same thing happened in Mexico or Cuba. 

Then we also remember from 2014 Victoria Nuland’s accidentally recorded phone call  where among other things she said “F**k Europe”, and spoke of hand picking the next leader of Ukraine. And about that time talk began of plans to fast - track Ukraine into NATO membership and then further extend to North ATLANTIC Treaty Organisation away from the Atlantic by recruiting Georgia and Kazakhstan. So, anyone who has followed events knows how this all came about. Also according to the Pentagon 46 US funded biolabs were being operated there, allegedly engaged in research towards developing illegal bioweapons.

Putin had been saying that Ukrainian neutrality was a red line. The West knew this, yet continued to push Ukraine towards NATO membership.

Washington knew this, paid for this, and brought this about, just like they are the ones bringing about war with China. War, among other things, is big money for the Neo-Cons, and it’s also how the US with it’s 800 military bases all over the world (far more than any other nation) controls things. We love war, we love overthrowing governments by funding NGOs. We love the power that controlling monetary policy all over the world, and the sanctions on Russia that were always part of the plan, the fact that those hurt Europe…Well, Victoria Nuland said the US position on that in 2014. 

Zelensky was elected by the Ukrainian people on one major policy platform: Implementing the Minsk agreements, and bringing peace, yet when peace was in his grasp, he said no. Boris Johnson and NATO told him under no circumstances. That is when the “game changer” modern NATO equipment started pouring into Ukraine… one supposed game changer after another was promised to the proxy warriors.only the game never changed.  Heavy Artillery, HIMARS, Leopard 2 Tanks, None of it worked and now we have 350,000 dead Ukrainian troops in Washington’s proxy war and even more seriously wounded, Russia has lost thousands less, best estiates put their losses at around 50K. The Spring counteroffensive has not even moved past the security zone into the first of 3 lines of Russian defense, and in fact Russia is now advancing. It is NATO that is sending those men to their deaths for purely political reasons. Politics, spin, propaganda, lies, and the western powers have lied soi much they cannot stop without facing total humiliation… 

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Ukraine: Who Is Winning And Losing In The Economic War

 22 February 2023

One year ago today, to provide a legal framework for Russian military support to Donetsk and Luhansk which would take the form of a military incursion into Ukrainian territory on February 24, the Russian President Vladimir Putin had signed executive orders to recognize the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lunhansk People's Republic as independent countries

Putin told Russia's national assembly, The Duma, he considered it necessary to take a long overdue decision and to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic, and asked  the Assembly of the Russian Federation to support this decision and then ratify the Treaty of Friendship and Mutual Assistance with both republics. These two documents will be prepared and signed shortly afterwards.

On Tuesday, February 22, 2022 the Federal Assembly held an extraordinary session and did as Putin had asked: thus kicking off the war that has ravaged Ukraine for the past year.
 

Russia's recognition of Donetsk and Lughansk was sufficient reason for the U.S. and EU to implement their long planned economic sanctions against Russia:

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy announced that The European Union had agreed new sanctions on Russia that would blacklist more politicians, lawmakers and officials, ban EU investors from trading in Russian state bonds, and target imports and exports with separatist entities.

“This package of sanctions that has been approved by unanimity by the member states will hurt Russia, and it will hurt a lot,” Borrell told a news conference alongside France’s foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian at a meeting in Paris.

The package of sanctions included freezing any assets they have in the EU and banning them from traveling to the bloc.

U.S. sanctions on Russia were applied in a coordinated manner.

Germany also halted the approval for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

Two days later Russian troops crossed the border and the shooting war began. But it was this day another war began, the economic war that, unless nuclear conflict breaks out and we must all fervently hope that does not happen, will determine eventually the true victors in the war between east and west for global dominance. For that is the true reason behind the proxy war the unfortunate citizens of Ukraine find themselves caught up in now. 

 Throughout the twelve months of the war official narratives in the liberal democracies have pinned the blame for starting the war squarely on Russia, with one frequently repeated item of misinformation being that the Russian invasion was prompted by fear of Ukraine being admitted to NATO membership. It is true that Russia had concerns about its own security when U.S. Presidents have often talked about smashing the Russian threat to peace and democracy (for which you should read getting their greedy hands on Russia's natural resources,) On the other side the anti - war contingent have argued that had Russia been given an undertaking that Ukraine would not be recruited to NATO war could have been avoided. I confess that early in the war I took this line also.

Nothing has changed for me except that I now understand more fully the motivation of the western power, and I think Putin and his associate in the Kremlin always have. Why would Moscow have ceded its claims on Donetsk, Lughansk and Crimea for a worthless  promise from Ukraine and NATO  that Ukraine would not enter NATO?After all NATO recruited Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania and Hungary after it had promised (bit not committed itself to a binding treaty,) not to recruit former Warsaw pact nations following the break up of The Soviet Union.

Ukraine never needed to join NATO. The USA and the European military powers had trained and equipped Ukraine's armed forces for eight years without Ukraine being in being in NATO, as has now been admitted by NATO's General Secretary. So while Ukraine was already a de facto member of NATO what would have been the point of a worthless agreement that Ukraine wouldn't enter NATO? Are we to assume that Putin and his team were that dumb?

It's totally ridiculous to suggest that Russia would have cancelled the 'Special Military Operation' on such an agreement. It would have left Russia precisely where it was before the war started, with essentially zero implementation of 2013 Minsk that Kiev would cease and desist from the persecution of ethnic Russians within Ukraine's borders, or that the Ukraine regime, installed by the US /EU engineered coup in 2014, would be anything but a puppet of the US and NATO. Would the Russian government have abandoned its habitual paranoia about the security of its borders knowing Ukraine would continue to receive western military aid, pursuant to a plan to eventually attack eastern Ukraine and Russia, the biowarfare labs in Ukraine would continue. 

It is clear now that the primary purpose of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was not to secure Donbass, and not to get a worthless promise from Ukraine and NATO that Ukraine wouldn't formally be part of NATO. Nor was it primarily to "de-militarize and de-Nazify Ukraine." Those latter two goals were merely preconditions for achieving the real goal of the SMO: the overthrow of the Ukraine regime,  by whatever "legal" or "illegal" means, to be followed by the establishment of a Russian Federation states in eastern Ukraine.

This is the only way Russian security interests as outlined in the December treaty proposals can be at least partially achieved. Everything else is just irrelevant. The only "negotiations" the Russians were ever interested in was Ukraine's unconditional surrender, followed by the dismantling of the Ukrainian regime, and the implementation of the Russian program. 

The NATO allies had been urging the neo - Nazi nutters it installed in Kiev to continue provoking Russia as they had since the 2014 coup, knowing that Russia must eventually respond to protect Russian minorities in eastern Ukraine as they had to protect ethnic Russians by annexing Crimea. Unfortunately NATO miscalculated the resilience of the Russian economy, sanctions failed, the entire world did not rally in support of Ukraine, in fact China, India, Iran and most of South East Asia, The Middle East, Africa and South America are their openly supporting Russia or quietly aiding Putins war effort by continuing to trade with Russian organisations.

The Rouble is strong on currency exchange markets and while Europe suffers economically from the loss of gas, oil, minerals and grain imports, the Russians have had no problem finding alternative buyers for their produce.

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How The West's Sanctions On Russia Backfired

 

July 25, 2022

 

We Boggart Bloggers don't like to say, "We Told You So," we absolutely LOVE it.

The strategy adopted by the collectively demented Biden administration in the USA and supported by its allies in NATO and the European Union against Russia in Ukraine is fast proving a total fiasco, sanctioning Russia has backfired on the EU with Germany and several other nations now so short of natural gas for industry and domestic use they are having to introduce rationing. There have also been unintended consequences for international food and fertiliser which will inevitably worsen in the coming months.

EU countries which rely heavily on Russian oil and gas as a result of dismantling their own energy infrastructure in pursuit of idiotic 'Net Zero' targets set by the Brussels bureaucrats on the advice of a 15 year old Swedish retard are now doomed to the worst energy crisis since the 1970s when the cold weather arrives. With no way of averting the crisis they are also awakening to the threat of another mass migration from the starving Middle East and Africa, which depend on exported Ukrainian and Russian wheat for food because the war has cut off shipping routes through The Black Sea.

The full weight of this migration crisis will fall on the EU, which was flooded with a million illiterate, uneducated, unemployable, sex starved migrants in 2015 during the war in Syria and with whom it has struggled to cope in the years since. What will the EU do with a million or more others whom it cannot prevent from coming?

Ukrainian wheat exports are stuck in ports blockaded by the Russian Black Sea fleet. Russian exports are blocked by United Nation sanctions enforced by the USA. The world was told these sanctions would cripple the Russian economy and force Putin to abandon his military adventure in Ukraine. These have not only failed to achieve their objective but are seriously hurting the rest of the world, while Russia sells its gas and oil through proxies to Asia, Africa and under the counter to European nations brave or desperate enough to stand out from the crowd.

Why was none of this foreseen by the highly paid 'experts' who advise governments before the sanctions were imposed, when three retired old gits like us could see it in technicolour and 3D. Was it due to the arrogance of NATO governments that designed their sanctions in the exercise of so-called smart power? Turned out to be stupid power didn't it. Most stupid of all is the way those governments and their 'experts' are crying foul now Russia's retaliatory sanctions are hitting the west.

The Sanctions, deceitfully described as the toughest ever, appear to have been planned on the assumption that Russia's economy would quickly fold under them and the resulting political chaos in Moscow would trigger the removal of Vladimir Putin from the presidency. But the Russian economy prospered, the Rouble did not collapse, it grew stronger and Putin is still in control. The Russian army has captured 20 per cent of eastern Ukraine and intends to stay there until whatever peace is agreed and probably longer.

The other half of the strategy, based on the assumption that defensively-armed Ukrainian forces could defeat the Russians without NATO soldiers trained in hi-tech warfare fighting on the ground alongside them, has also failed.

In spite of all this, there is no evidence that Nato policy is being re-thought. The Russians are embedded in Ukraine and cannot be dislodged without direct, boots on the ground intervention from NATO, and this is not going to happen mainly because smaller NATO members that have borders with Russia would be vulnerable and several large and economically powerful NATO members are dependent of Russia for gas and electricity. Rarely has the phrase ‘sleep-walking to disaster’ seemed more apt now that we see the horrifying result. Putin has the west over a barrell (of oil) and is shafting us up the (Nord Stream) pipeline.

Foreign policy ‘realists’ blame successive US administrations for provoking the war by expanding NATO eastward after the Soviet Union fell and inviting Ukraine to join. This is denied by war hawks, who claim NATO was never a threat to Russia even while its recruitment policy over the past 35 years is evidence that the alliance was working to surround Russia.  There were even plans to recruit Georgia and Kazakhstan to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. NATO may officially be defensive but there is little difference between a defensive and offensive alliance when it can transform itself from one to the other in an instant as the Russians fear.

The latest delusional prognostication from Washington is that the Russians will feel the full bite of sanctions this autumn but there is no reason to believe this is anything but wishful thinking born of desperation that NATO ’s failed policies will somehow come right.

The realist counter-argument to the proposal to admit Ukraine to NATO, that Russia is genuinely paranoid about the deployment of mainly American Nato troops and missiles on its western border, is dismissed as naïve sympathy for an anti-West aggressor who is a permanent threat to peace. But while the hawks in Washington, London and Paris can only point to a minor incursion into Georgia since the fall of the Soviet Union to back up their claim that Russia is an expansionist power, the Russians cite inverventions by the USA and NATO in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, The Balkans after the break up of Yugoslavia, and indirectly in Yemen to prove that far from being a mutual defence treaty, NATO has appointed itself the world's policeman, the military wing of The United Nations.

Everyone knew well in advance that Putin would invade Ukraine. The question is: why, if Biden wasn’t going to try to prevent war by negotiating with the Russian leader, the West did not give more thought to dealing the dire consequences on which it has since impaled itself?

The energy crisis was unfolding long before sanctions cut off Russian oil and gas, an action which would inevitably aggravate it, were imposed. The blockade of Ukraine’s main wheat export port of Odessa was foreseeable. The ensuing shortage of wheat in the Middle East and Africa was an inevitable consequence. Was any thought given to other ways to feed these peoples? Was there any contingency plan?

Another increasingly significant factor in the direction the conflict may now take of the conflict is public opinion, especially in Europe as people begin to suffer the full economic and social impact of the choices their leaders have made.Runaway inflation, fuel poverty, cold showers, empty supermarket shelves ... People will not give indefinite support to a cause in which they perceive no direct national stake and which has only negative effects on them. Ukraine was portrayed as a necessary ‘good war’ but looks more and more like a bad one for which the west has no exit strategy.

The EU expects Putin to weaponise or even totally cut off its energy exports to Germany and northern Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline, and has asked member countries to reduce their gas usage by 15 per cent between August and March. It proposes to grant itself powers to enforce the limitation thus usurping a little more of member states' sovereignty.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen complained hypocritically to the media that ‘Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon’. Translation – we can sanction Russia but it’s not fair for Russia to sanction us.

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Mainstream media reporting of the conflict in Ukraine has disappointed. Perhaps I was naive to suppose that lessons might have been learned from the hits their print sales and online traffic rates took as a result of their handling the COVID pandemic But instead of focusing on the most obviously newsworthy aspect of the build up to and escalation of the war, Russia’s view of NATO expansion into Ukraine and even further to Georgia and Kazakhstan, news reports have simply demonised Russia and portrayed Ukraine as the good guys.

Even If The War In Ukraine Ends, Sanctions Will Stay - So How Bad Will The Food Crisis Get?
Western leaders, desperate to show their own countries they were taking a firm stance on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were quick to impose economic sanctions ... so quick in fact that they acted before they had though things through. While freezing Russia out of the global finance system they have exacerbated the wests energy crisis, while Russia's retaliatory ban on raw materials (fertiliser) exports will create extra problems on top of those we already had ...

While Crazy Joe Biden Claims Victory Over Russia, NATO's Expansin Plans Have Been Derailed By PutinJoe Biden (or his handlers because we all know Joe's mind is gone,) have been trying to spin reports of Russian troops withdrawing from positions close to the Ukraine border as a diplomatic victory for the USA over Putin but in the geopolitical game things are seldom what they seem to be ...

Mainstream media's hyping of the threat to Ukrained posed by Russian aggression is the latest in a long line of attempts to lay blame for western foreign policy disasters at the feet of Russia. In fact had Joe Biden not started to babble about Russian aggression, talking up the threat of conflict, there would be no crisis ...