Monday, August 07, 2023

Brace Yourselves: The Impact Of The Ukraine War Is About To Start Hitting Us Harder

While mainstream media in western Europe and North America continues to sing the paraises of Ukraine's armeed fgorces and report the success of the counteroffensive as the Russians are pushed back many miles each day, more perceptive people recognise that although the Ukrainians, supported by American and European weapons and cash, have fought bravely in resisting the onslaught faced over the past eighteen months, there is no doubt that in reality Ukraine is not winning or even holding their own, the country is being reduced to rubble.

Meanwhile a fact about the war that is hardly acknowledges is just how much worse the impact of the conflict could have been on a global scale had Russia not shown considerable restraint in the face of constant provocations by Ukraine and its non - combatant allies. Mainstream media has repeatedly commented on Russian brutality having conveniently forgotten the carpet bombing by NATO allies of Serbia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria. In fact Russia has not taken advantage of its overwhelming air superiority and in view of Zelensky's demands for American and European war planes this is remarkable.

But maybe Moscow is playing a different game. Knowing that escalating the shooting war to an air war or a bombing campaign could easily push NATO to direct involvement on the ground and lead to the war spilling beyond Ukrainian territory, has Putin found a better, more subtle weapon?

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities Russia was the world’s leading exporter of grain and fertilizer and provided around 50% of the EU’s gas needs. Ukraine is also a major exporter of grain, second only to Russia among the worlds leading exporters. . The complete disruption of supply lines for any of these vital commodities would result in catastrophe, particularly for the world's poorer nations.

The twin disaster of  lousy harvest yields due to lack of nitrate based fertiliser and lack of grain exports last year was largely thanks to two crucial agreements secured early in the conflict: the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered mainly by President Erdogan of Turkey with the support of the United Nations. Under the terms of the initiative Russia allowed Ukraine to continue exporting grain via the Black Sea, and a simlar deal that allowed Russian to keep the gas flowing to Europe via Ukraine. But the former has just been suspended, and the latter could soon be Russia in reprisal for Ukraine's launching drone attacks deep into Russian territory. Should those things happen the  true cost of this war to the west and the third world would greatly increase to be counted not in Dollars, Euros or Yuan but in human life and suffering.

When Erdoghan's grain deal was signed last July, U N Secretary General António Guterres,  called it a “beacon of hope” — and rightly so. Reaching an agreement of this kind raised hopes that the two sides were ready to talk and it might prove the first step on the way to a negotiated settlement. On a more practical level it contributed to keeping grain prices low and avoided a collapse in Ukrainian exports (which declined by around 30%) — possibly preventing a global humanitarian disaster as many African, Middle Eastern and South East Asian nations depend on Russian and Ukrainian grain supplied through the U N World Food Prograsm. Over the past year, more than 1,000 ships (containing nearly 33 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs) left Ukraine from three Ukrainian ports: Odesa, Chornomorsk and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.

On July 17,  however, Putin pulled out of the deal having warned for several months that he could do so if the west continued increasing economic sanctions on Russia and provinding the Zelensky regime with the means to escalate the conflict. Throughout this period the deal had beeen under growing strain, with the Kremlin claiming that the West wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain, which allowed for more Russian agricultural and fertiliser exports. For this to happen, Russia insisted on reconnecting the Russian Agricultural Bank to the Swift international payment system and, among other things, the unblocking of assets and accounts of those Russian companies involved in food and fertiliser exports.

But the most important of The Kremlin's demands was the resumption of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, which runs from the Russian city of Togliatti to various Black Sea ports in Ukraine, and which prior to the war exported 2.5 million tonnes of ammonia annually. 

Leaders of the European nations are being affected seem to care more about kowtowing to the U S administration of demented Joe Biden and the unelected bureaucrats who run the EU than about the welfare of the people whose interests they are elected to serve. If they cared about their own nation and the senseless wasting of the lives of young Ukrainian and Russian soldiers as much as they do about toeing the line dictated by The White House (because make no mistake, America has been the main driver of this conflict,) and honouring their commitments to sanction Russia into economic ruin (even though it is obvious sanctions have failed and hit the sanctioning nations harder than the target.

There was a peace deal, including Ukraine neutrality, brokered again by Turkey's president and signed by Putin and Zelenskyy but Boris Johnson was dispatched to Kiev by The White House to forbid and contact between Russia and Ukraine that was not pre - approved by Washington. 

Putin had as a sign of good faith begun pulling troops out but the NATO powers once again welched on the deal.  In 1990 James Baker had promised the Russians, if they pulled their military out of East Germany letting NATO in, that NATO would not move 1 inch East.
Russia gave that huge concession, again in good faith, and almost immediately former Warsaw Pact nations including Poland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Hungary and The Czech Republic were recruited into NATO. On gaining independence Ukraine had been neutral, and very friendly with Russia (with most people including comedian Zelenskyy speaking only Russian), then suddenly a colour revolution in 2014, engineered by the CIA  overthrew a corrupt but democratically elected government and replaced it with a government dominated by neo - Nazi who ensured their election by banning opposition parties. 

After that 2014 coup stories about Joe Biden and the scandals attached to the dealings of his crooked, debauched son Hunter began to emerge. Western money started pouring into Ukraine, US funded bioweapons research labs sprang up faster than daffodils in the spring. 

 Russia probably guessed that the US wanted to use Crimea as their own naval base to gain dominance of The Black Sea and took it over. Then NATO built a 400K military in Ukraine, and between 2014 and the start of the special military operation 14000 civilians in Donbas were killed, mostly by artillery fire from NATO supplied weapons operated by soldiers trained in NATO member states. Ukraine was obviously becoming a military threat so, Russia acted, just as the US would act if the same thing happened in Mexico or Cuba. 

Then we also remember from 2014 Victoria Nuland’s accidentally recorded phone call  where among other things she said “F**k Europe”, and spoke of hand picking the next leader of Ukraine. And about that time talk began of plans to fast - track Ukraine into NATO membership and then further extend to North ATLANTIC Treaty Organisation away from the Atlantic by recruiting Georgia and Kazakhstan. So, anyone who has followed events knows how this all came about. Also according to the Pentagon 46 US funded biolabs were being operated there, allegedly engaged in research towards developing illegal bioweapons.

Putin had been saying that Ukrainian neutrality was a red line. The West knew this, yet continued to push Ukraine towards NATO membership.

Washington knew this, paid for this, and brought this about, just like they are the ones bringing about war with China. War, among other things, is big money for the Neo-Cons, and it’s also how the US with it’s 800 military bases all over the world (far more than any other nation) controls things. We love war, we love overthrowing governments by funding NGOs. We love the power that controlling monetary policy all over the world, and the sanctions on Russia that were always part of the plan, the fact that those hurt Europe…Well, Victoria Nuland said the US position on that in 2014. 

Zelensky was elected by the Ukrainian people on one major policy platform: Implementing the Minsk agreements, and bringing peace, yet when peace was in his grasp, he said no. Boris Johnson and NATO told him under no circumstances. That is when the “game changer” modern NATO equipment started pouring into Ukraine… one supposed game changer after another was promised to the proxy warriors.only the game never changed.  Heavy Artillery, HIMARS, Leopard 2 Tanks, None of it worked and now we have 350,000 dead Ukrainian troops in Washington’s proxy war and even more seriously wounded, Russia has lost thousands less, best estiates put their losses at around 50K. The Spring counteroffensive has not even moved past the security zone into the first of 3 lines of Russian defense, and in fact Russia is now advancing. It is NATO that is sending those men to their deaths for purely political reasons. Politics, spin, propaganda, lies, and the western powers have lied soi much they cannot stop without facing total humiliation… 



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