Russia-Ukraine crisis will put more pressure on the global food supply chain, driving up prices around the world

  The escalation of what was a civil conflict Russias separatist rebels and the government in Ukraine, into what could become a worldwide conflict involving the USA, NATO and the European Union threatens to put even more strain on the global food supply, driving up prices of essential staples wheat, corn and sunflower oil. The UK has already sanctioned five Russian banks. The United States and the European Union are also getting involved with their own list of sanctions.  Worse, the USA and UK, having emboldened the Ukrainian government to embark on a programme of ethnic cleansing that has been top of their wish list since 1914 when the separatist regions of Lubansk and Donetz, which both have a majority of ethnic Russians in their population, unilaterally declared independence.

Due to the idiocies of being "led by science" throughout the pandemic, coupled with a global energy crisis resulting from loonytoons green energy policies, the world is now facing an energy crisis and a batch of food shortages due to chaos in distribution systems. As conflict  in The Black Sea region  escalates, the global food supply also now hangs in the balance.

In the vast weheatfields of Unkraine (Source: Wikimedia commons)

Russia and Ukraine produce for nearly 80 percent of all sunflower oil exported around the world. Approximately 29 percent of the global  wheat exports and 19 percent of the corn (maize) supply comes from the plains of Russia and Ukraine too. Wheat, corn and sunflower oil are common components of many everyday food products that populations depend upon throughout the world. Many smaller Middle Eastern nations rely on Russian and Ukrainian wheat for stability in their food supply. If Black Sea ports on Ukranian and Russian coastlines are cut off due to armed conflict, essential shipments of grain will not be able to leave their nations of origin.

Thus if the conflict escalates, as may well happen with the governments of USA and UK still indulging in sabre rattling and ofering pledges of military support to theauthoritarian government in Kiev,  food prices which are already spiralling out of control driving many low income families into poverty, are certain to increase further. After Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s R evenepublics and dispatched troops into those regions yesterday, U.S. wheat futures jumped 9.72 percent and corn futures spiked 9.34 percent from their recent low levels.

The regions that will be worst hit by food shortages, rationing, military conflict and port closures would include North Africa, Asia and the Middle East. These regions depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian grain exports. 

Russian wheat exports are mostly sent to Africa and the Middle East; approximately 70 percent of Russian wheat was sent to these regions in 2021.

Historically Ukraine was known as 'the breadbasket of Europe' for their wheat supply. Now, with population changes, much of the middle east looks to Ukraine for grain supplies. Lebanon receives half of its wheat supply from Ukraine. Libya imports 43 percent of their wheat from the same source. Other countries that will be impacted include Malaysia, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Egypt. These countries receive anywhere from 14-28 percent of their wheat supply from Ukraine, which would make a significant enough shortfall to trigger a humanitarian crisis in those regions..

Even though Ukraine hopes to export 56 million tons of grain in 2022, many of their ports and shipping routes will inevitably be disrupted should the crisis develop into a shooting war.. Most of grain exports are transported from the Black Sea which can only access The editerranean and the world's oceans via the narrow strait known as The Bosphorus. If military conflict continues in the region, a naval blockade of this shipping routes may cause The Black Sea ports be cut off for an unknown amount of time.

The threat of war in the region is already causing disruption of food supplies. Buyers in international markets are already competing to buy from different suppliers, forcing up prices.  A buyer from Singapore told Reuters:“Ships are avoiding entering the Black Sea because of the war risk, Supply disruptions are already taking place.”

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