Over-50s could get a FOURTH Covid jab in autumn to fend off NHS winter crisis as Omicron drives up new cases and hospital admissions the Daily Mail reports.
Over-50s are set to be offered a Covid booster jab as early as autumn it was revealed yesterday as health authorities planned the latest 'fightback' against a surge in the number of non - lethal asymptomatic infections by the latest COVID variants.
Around six million people classed as vulnerable or at risk are understood to be in line for a fourth shot as the latest sub-variants of the Omicron strain continue to rapidly spread. However the push to inject people with the non - immunising, highly lethat 'clotshot' will be extended to the over 50s accoring to government sources.
Yesterday’s ONS publication on all cause deaths by vaccination status potentially gives some new insights into what is behind the recent increase in all cause mortality in England following the Spring boosters.
In particular it appears to show that the relative mortality of the vaxed (vaxed mean any dose throughout this post) relative to the unvaxed has worsened since the Spring boosters started (between March and May), although that’s a trend that has been happening for some time. And so the recent high all cause mortality has a significant component related to vaccine damage.
Here is a chart of the relative all cause mortality, measured using monthly age standardised mortality (ASM) from yesterday’s ONS publication. ASM adjusts for age differences between vaxed and unvaxed and reflects deaths mainly in the older population where most deaths happen.
In May 2021 all cause mortality was 1.91 times the rate in the unvaxed as in the vaxed (ASM of 1718.8 vs 901.6 per 100,000)
However non-covid mortality in May 2021 was similarly higher in the unvaxed relative to the vaxed at 1.87 times the rate (ASM per 100,000 of 1,673.4 vs 895.4). Given that an experimental vaccine can’t help with non-covid deaths (noting that there has clearly been no under-recording of covid deaths from when vaccines started) the higher all cause death rate in the unvaxed is not due to any vaccine efficacy.
So the higher rate of mortality in the unvaxed is probably due to the ONS significantly understating the unvaxed population or a selection effect because the general health of the unvaxed is much worse than that of the vaxed. This health (or terminal illness) explanation is unlikely to be the reason as the Norman Fenton etal paper showed as in practice it was the most vulnerable who were vaccinated first.
In March 2022 all cause mortality was 1.24 times the rate in the unvaxed as in the vaxed (ASM of 1,231.7 vs 992.6 per 100,000)
In May 2022 all cause mortality was 1.06 times the rate in the unvaxed as in the vaxed (ASM of 872.9 vs 822.6 per 100,000)
So the relative mortality of the unvaxed relative to the vaxed has reduced from 1.91 to 1.26 to 1.06 times from May 2021 to March 2022 to May 2022.
Some would say we shouldn’t try to unpick the ONS data because it is clearly wrong as indicated above; a reasonable viewpoint. I take a different view. I suggest we should ignore the absolute ONS mortality rates (for reasons implied above) as they likely incorporate an understatement of the unvaxed population. So the current 1.06 rate doesn’t mean the unvaxed are (adjusted for age) dying at a 6% higher rate than the vaxed. And we need to be careful with misallocated deaths occurring in the vaxed in the first few weeks after first vaccination (for reasons Clare Craig and others have given). However if we look at changes to the relative rates of mortality for periods after most of those first vaccinations in those most likely to die have happened then we can glean some information.
In particular the fall in the relative rates of all cause mortality
in the unvaxed vs the vaxed from March 2022 to May 2022 is tentative
further evidence that the Spring boosters have caused significant
damage, rather than the high mortality just being about lack of access
to healthcare due to the disastrous pandemic response that affects both
vaxed and unvaxed alike.
This post is based on my first glance of yesterday’s ONS publication. So I may have made a mistake somewhere. And if anyone spots anything wrong with this logic then I would be interested.