On Day 5 of the Trump's ridiculously named Operation Epic Furry which was conceived to prepare Iran for regime change, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the US is "winning," signalling that additional American forces are ready to be deployed to Iran and vowing Washington will take "all the time it needs" to secure 'victory'. But but a major public backlash against the campaign is gathering momentum rapidly as the reality that Iran is proving no pushover (as this blog warned last year) is beginning to daen on the American population.
President Trump himself suggested an open-ended timeline, but expressed that four or five weeks should do the job. Americans, however, might recall similar pledges were made at the start of the Iraq war, which ended up being a 20 year occupation and bloody quagmire. Recall that in 2002, Bush's then Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared of impending Iraq operations: "Five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn't going to last any longer than that...It won't be a World War III." With that in mind, Hegseth for the first time Wednesday suggested up to eight weeks.
Iranian state media is reporting that the death toll from U.S.-Israeli strikes has climbed to at least 1,045. US losses stand at (at least) six service members killed, with several critically wounded, but CENTCOM has yet to issue a new Wednesday casualty update. It also announced that a planned late-night ceremony in Tehran honoring Iran’s slain supreme leader was abruptly postponed, officially due to "logistical issues".
The problem is US government and military leadrs in The Pentagon did not think though the attack properly. They assumed a quick campaign of air strikes to soften up the Iranians, then the ever aggressive Kurds in northern Iran being activated to commit suicide against the Iran's Republican guard, and with the theocratic regimes best troops otherwise occupied a surprise incursion by Israel's IDF to take Tehran and game over.
Well that's my guess, but if it's anywhere near right the Americans did not factor into their plan the Strait of Hormuz.
Some 20% of the global supplies of oil, LPG and fertilizers have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had long announced that the Strait would be closed if the country would come under attack. It has held to its promise. A few small ships have since tried to pass through the Strait but were stopped by Iranian strike impacts. Ship insurance companies have stopped to provide cover for any passage of the Strait.
After occupying Iraq for 20 years in this century Washington appartently still does not understand the geographic facts of the Hormuz. Here it is in picture form:
Given the geography of the area it is easy to see why even with more that half its navy subk or disabled Iran can effectively close the strait to large ship and keep it closed. The terriain on either side of the waterway is mountainous and barren, idea for mounting a stealth campaign using mobile artillery and drones to attack shipping, do the damage and then move quickly leaving western aircraft to bomb rocks and hills.
Trump is talking crazy nonsense when he floats ideas like providing US and NATO warships to escort commercial vessels through the strait? Even crazier stuff like US boots on the ground when anyone with the slightest understanding of US force levels in the region know it would take half a year of build-up to make that even a remote possibility?
Well, we can assume everyone in the Administration and the Pentagon are a
bunch of idiots who leap before looking. This view is compatible with
the delusions of a certain population that is victim to a particular
mass psychogenic illness. They find this view comforting since it means
that simply changing which team has the ball in the US political show
will fix everything.
Or we could assume that the Administration never really intended things
to turn into a shooting war and the whole naval and air power buildup
was just a bluff to add leverage to imperial bluster. But then something
happened and the bluff was called. But who called it? Not the Iranians,
of course. I think it is fairly obvious who forced the Empire’s hand,
but I will leave that as a question for discussion. I’ll just say that
it is a really bad idea to bluff like that when you are partnered with
the very most psychotic of psychopaths.
We Boggart Bloggers are not seeing any viable way for the West to engage in a land war against Iran. Based on the adage that a ship cannot beat a fort and that air-only campaigns don’t win wars it then the decisive means comes down to economics and by close association logistics. The West was convinced that economic means we’re going to crush Russia, it has proven to be a failure. Unless someone can show how Iran can be defeated via economic means, when Iran's biggest customer for its oil and produce is China there is no way for Iraq to be defeated quickly.That said, Iran cannot defeat the West.
Israel could be the key, via air strikes. However air strikes can have a significantly greater affect on Israel’s (and the West’s) ability to wage war on Iran.
Individual battles are great for conversation pieces but the true objective is the war. Russia has shown that the West is incapable of militarily defeating a true opponent; and for the economic angle it is the same (Iran has weathered and adjusted to economic forces against it). Strategy matters.
Support from Russia and China is there as needed to win the war , logistics, strategy and intelligence. Unlike with Syria, Iran WILL accept support. Assad’s mistake was that he thought he could get back into good graces of the West and feared that having any significant support from Russia would negatively affect that pursuit- Assad, educated in an elite English school had too much of a Western brain, a problem he shares with US and European leaders who simply do not understand the fanatical mindset of Islamists.
FROM THE ARCHIVE:
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While the west has been distracted by events in Gaza and Ukraine, and the neo - fascist 'left' have suddenly discovered the joys of anti Russianism and anti Semitism, the FUKUS axis sponsored genocidists of ISIS have discovered another inoffensive minority to exterminate now that the Syriac Christians have fled.
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