Wednesday, July 05, 2017

Italeave or Quitaly? The EU Is Falling Apart


Italy: Too beautiful to be part of EU bureaucratic dictatorship (picture source)


Since the shock of Britain voting for ‘Brexit’ just over a year ago this blog has been speculating on which EU nation to quit the former free trade association that is being driven by Germany and the globalist elites closer and closer to becoming a single political enity, a Federal superstate (called Germany?)
Our money has always been on Italy although we hedged our bet with a wager on Hungary. And it’s starting to look as if we were correct.

Under the headline Is Italy heading for debt restructuring or euro exit? Financial newsletter Eurointelligence reports that a possible programme for Italy’s leaving the Union is already being discussed in the Italian parliament by the likely partners in a ruling coalition following the next election.
from Eurointelligence (not publicly available)

We are reporting from an important conference in Rome yesterday that has caught the Italian news headlines this morning – on the future of Italian public debt. It was organized by the Five Star Movement, held in the Italian chamber of deputies, and openly discussed issues such default mechanism inside the eurozone, sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms, parallel payment systems, and of course euro exit.

What is important about this debate is that it is now taking place in public – you can’t be more public than inside the parliament. Italians, not only the Five Star Movement, are openly talking about these issues.

One of us was on the podium, where we reiterated our criticism of the Five Star Movement’s previous-held cavalier notion of a euro referendum. The essential point we were trying to make in the debate, well reflected in this morning’s coverage by the main newspapers, is that euro exit is not a decision to be taken lightly. The announcement of a referendum would produce a financial crisis and might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Euro exit belongs to the category of things that, citing Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “if it were done when ‘tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly“.

What struck us about this event was the sheer political leverage. Luigi di Maio, the presumptive Five Star candidate for the job of prime minister, seemed to distance himself from supporting euro exit. He sat through the entire 12-hour marathon of discussions. Beppe Grillo and Davide Casaleggio made short appearances. It was very clear that the Five Star Movement is now aggressively tackling the topic of Italy’s future in the eurozone, which is likely to become a major election issue. It also raises questions, as some Italian commentators did this morning, about possible coalition choices for the party if it adopts a more nuanced position on the euro.

A lot of space was given to a discussion on fiscal money – coupons issued by the state to people for use in tax payments. We recall that Yanis Varoufakis worked on a similar scheme for Greece, and one of his advisers at the time gave some details of how such a scheme can be made to work and why it did not work in Greece. The answer is that it requires an extraordinary degree of technical and logistical preparation that is outside the scope of what most governments are physically capable of.

Conferences such as these never reach consensus, but they bring up questions. One of the questions on fiscal money is whether it is sustainable or merely transitional. Is it just an instrument through which a country transitions to a new currency, or just a short-term liquidity measure, or can it work as a supplemental form of money?

Another discussion that struck us was a paper by Alberto Bagnai and Brigitte Granville, who did a stochastic simulation of the costs of euro exit. They noted that there would be an initial cost but that strong counter-cyclical growth would soon resume. The problem with this simulation is that it does not take sufficiently into account the multiple financial shocks that are likely to be dominant during such a phase. Euro exit would do major damage to the financial system both of Italy and the eurozone. The authors have a variable that includes a banking crisis, but we do not think this does justice to the financial Armageddon we are likely to see after an Italian euro exit.

And finally, we noted a comment by Heiner Flassbeck, formerly at the German finance ministry and Unctad, who noted that there can be no solution to the eurozone’s persistent crisis unless one insists on symmetric adjustment in the eurozone. He advocates the strategy that Italy should make a credible threat to leave the eurozone in order to force a German policy shift.

All of Italy’s major political parties, except for the  Democratic Party, the party of Matteo Renzi’s failed government, have flirted with supporting moves to leave the Euro. The current front runners in polls, not that polls are a predictor of outcomes, as we have learned several times recently, with only the french election reflecting polling figures and it is widely suspected that the French result was decided before a single vote was cast.

The path to Italeave is not easy, a referendum and a constitutional change will be required before any decision can be ratified, but trouble is brewing on a huge number of fronts simultaneously:
The Italian banking system is insolvent.

Another refugee crisis is brewing as flimsy, overloaded boats bring thousands of new illegal entrants every week.
Italy’s youth unemployment is a whopping 37%
The ECB is the only buyer for Italian bonds and yields are at record levels
Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is over 130% to the consternation of Eurozone officials
The global recovery still is not happening or EU members.
It is no longer taboo in Italy to talk of leaving the EU or taking back control of the nation’s borders.
Any number of things could start a chain reaction making Italeave look good to a majority of Italian voters. And despite the recent stitch up of Five Star movement in local elections, the other anti – immigration, anti – federalisation parties, Liga Nord and Forza Italia made big advances.
And when Italy goes, more will follow, at an accelerating rate we predict.


RELATED POSTS:</ br>
Quitaly? Will Italy follow Britain out of the EU? With a referendum in Italy, ostensibly on constitutional reforms but perceived as a referendum on the leadership of the ruling elite, looming in November and the anti – globalisation, pro sovereignty Five Star Party growing in popularity all the time. Should the constitutional changes be voted down, and the against campaign is showing a comfortable lead in opinion polls at the moment, it will put a Quitaly in-out referendum, similar to the so called Brexit vote that kick off the process of Britain leaving the European Union, at the top of the agenda.Threat Of Major Scandal Prompted Early Election Move – UKIP
Leaders of the (UKIP) have made astonishing claim that Prime Minister Teresa May’s calling an early General Election was done to pre-empt a series of by-elections that could be called following alleged electoral fraud. Accusing the Conservative government of “putting party before country”, UKIP appeared to suggest the scandal and ensuing disqualification of MPs could rob the government of its slender majority.
Nigel Farage Swipes Back At Irrational, Screeching, Crazy Clinton
US Democratic Party presidential candidate Hillary Clinton launched a hysterical, irrational attack, filled with half truths and blatant lies, against the most prominent figure in the campaign to get Britain out of the EU (Brexit), UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, during a speech at a rally today. Mrs Clinton, responding to Farage’s address to a large and enthusiastic audience at a Donald Trump rally, may have been rattled at the prospect of having such a hihly effective campaigner in the rival camp …
Rebellion Against EU Authoritarianism Escalates As 8th Member Nation Threatens Referendum
Brussels went too far, they crossed the line in moving from an economic union to a political pan – European political empire. In the end it was a race as to which member state would quit first, Britain, Natherlands, Denmark or Italy. In the event it is Britain.
Is Brexit A Harbinger Of Doom For The ‘Experts’
The Brexit vote, the decision by a democratic majority in Britain to leave the European Union has sent shockwaves around the world. Not only does the EU now face a tsunami of departures, the usurpation of democracy by ‘experts’ ( technocrats ) has been challenged and exposed as a sham.
BREXIT vs. GREXIT – The Truth About The European Union And How It Treats Members
Unless the testicularly deficient politicians stand up for their nations he only thing that will halt the European Union’s push beyond Europe’s geographical borders to incorporate Asian, middle eastern and north African nations is war. Power is addictive and the bean counters of Brussels have ambitions far beyond Europe.
The Hypocrisy and Snobbery Of The Remain Campaign And The Antidote
When I had to defriend a Facebook contact because she was arguing in favour of the EU, it was not simply because I support Brexit that I had become pissed of with her, it was the snobbish and condescending way she dismissed supporters of LEAVE and their case. People are entitled to their opinion on the European Union, but they should check the ‘facts’ they post in support of their arguments.
The Labour Case For Brexit by Kate Hoey M.P.
After my short intro is a savage indictment by Brexit supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey of the way the Labour Party has abandoned the working class and is now trying to betray the party’s proud heritage and its roots in the industrial areas by taking Britain into an undemocratic, corporate controlled, capitalist friendly, elite dominated globalist control freak project.
Dutch Referendum This Week Shows why We Should Leave The EU.
Few of you were aware probably that there is an EU referendum vote in The Netherlands this week. As usual with anything negative about the EU barely a word has been printed in the topic in mainstream media and the silence from our notionally unbiased national broadcaster The Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) has been deafening.
French, Belgians, Dutch, Italians Follow Britain in Euroskepticism
Europeans want us British to lead them out of Europe. Don’t be fooled by project fear, the European Union (aka the Euronazi Federal Superstate) is falling apart. There will not be chaos if we leave, there will be chaos if we stay.
Head Of European Institute: Brexit ‘Better’ For Everyone
Brexit would be the best result of Britain’s in / out referendum for both Britain and the EU i a Belgian professor who heads up the European Institute at the London School of Economics (LSE) has said.
Johnson’s article lines up his reasons why Britain must exit on June 23rd. It’s time to be brave
OK, I know a lot of you think Boris is most accurately described by a word many people find offensive, but he’s put together a very good argument here on why we must leave the EU. Published in part here under ‘fair use’ terms and conditions, in the public interest …
Cameron’s EU Package: Not A Deal But A Few Turns In The Spin Machine
As we and almost everybody else predicted, David Cameron’s deal to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU is worthless. It changes nmothing, and can be vetoed once we have voted to stay in.
Cameron Plays Deal Or No Deal In Europe
David Cameron, who was apparently up all night trying to make other European leaders understand why his country needs a better deal in order to poersuade the prople it is a good idea stay in the EU. Unless Cameron gets what will enable him to sell the idea of surrendering national sovereignty to a Federal European Superstate ruled by a committee of unelected bureaucrats in to the British public he will not campaign for the UK to remain in the bloc
EU Refuses to Block Eurozone Integration to Reach Agreement With UK
Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann said at the E?U summit on British membership terms that the European Union wants to reach an agreement with the United Kingdom, but it is not prepared to compromise the banking union (financial integration) or the further integration of monetary union (UK being forced to abandon the pound join the Euro?) to achieve this goal.
Cameron’s EU Deal Worthless. It Can Be Vetoed In European Parliament?
Opinion polls show Britain is evenly divided on the question of whether to leave or remain in the EU, though it has been suggested up to 10 million other voters, many of them women, have yet to make a decision. How they cast their vote will shape the future of the world’s fifth largest economy and the EU itself. But what is really at stake is more important than economics …
Obama’s intervention in UK politics triggers angry backlash
Angry Britons have launched a petition calling for U.S. President Barack Obama to be prevented from speaking in the UK parliament on Britain’s forthcoming referendum on European Union (EU) membership.
Greenteeth Elsewhere: [ The Original Boggart Blog] … [ Writerbeat ] … [ Daily Stirrer.shtml ]…[Little Nicky Machiavelli]… [ Ian’s Authorsden Pages ]… [ It’s Bollocks My Dears, All Bollocks ] … [ Minds ] [Scribd]…[Wikinut] … [ Boggart Abroad] … [ Grenteeth Bites ] … [ Latest Posts ] [Ian Thorpe at Flickr ] … [Latest Posts] … [ Tumblr ] … [ Authorsden blog ] … [Daily Stirrer Headlines]
[ Ian at Facebook ]

No comments: