EU Crisis? Euro currency falls below parity with US$ as Italian Government collapses

                             

Image of former Italian PM Mario Draghi.      Credit: matthi/Shutterstock.com

 

Italy's volatile politics plunged the EU into a new crisis today  July 14, after its coalition government collapsed. One of the ruling coalition parties, the 5-Star Movement, had earlier abstained in a vote in the Senate on a relief bill for soaring energy prices in the country that are driving many people into poverty.

The vote tied to a confidence vote, and Giuseppe Conte the head of M5S stated yesterday, Wednesday, July 13, that his party would not support the government in either of today’s votes.In the even the government survived the confidence vote but only because of a large numer of abstentions with members of other small parties joinging the Five Star contingent and declaring they could no longer back the ruling coalition.

In a statement released by Mario Draghi the Italian Prime Minister, he announced to his cabinet that he will resign from his post: “I will tender my resignation to the president of the republic this evening. The national unity coalition that backed this government no longer exists”. Draghi's coalition had been in power since January 2021 but had been a lame duck government unable to pass major legislation because they depended on the support of the anti - EU Five Star Movement.

Sergio Mattarella, the Italian President,  will now have to make the decision of either accepting or rejecting the PM’s resignation. Word is the President has indicated he will reject it, but that would result in an unwilling leader heading a government that cannot govern.  In what seems the most likely outcome of this crisis an election could be scheduled as early as September.

Giuseppe Conte, the Five Star party leader and the second-biggest group in Draghi’s coalition, said he could no longer back Draghi’s cross-party government, which he accused of not doing enough to help families battered by spiralling food and energy costs.

“I have a strong fear that September will be a time when families will face the choice of paying their electricity bill or buying food,” he said after a day of frenetic political consultations.

             
Guiseppe Conte - Five Star leader

 

Crucially, as The Financial Times reports, the implosion of Italy's national unity government, which could trigger earlier elections that were set for spring next year, would come at a sensitive time for the European Union, already enmired in three crises, the cost of living explosion, the war in Ukraine and attendant food and fuel shortages and runaway inflation as a result of the loonytoons COVID response.

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Under the leadership of Premier Giuseppe Conte, Italy's government has enjoyed a degree of stability unseen in decades, as the technocratic former law professor - initially brought in to lead a government formed by two anti-establishment parties, the anti-migrant League and left-wing populist Five Star Movement - Conte has already survived the collapse of his original coalition. When League leader Matteo Salvini withdrew from the ruling coalition back in 2019, Conte managed to stave off another election by recruiting new allies from the opposition.

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Italeave or Quitaly? The EU Is Falling Apart

Italy: Too beautiful to be part of EU bureaucratic dictatorship (picture source)

Since the shock of Britain voting for ‘Brexit’ just over a year ago this blog has been speculating on which EU nation to quit the former free trade association that is being driven by Germany and the globalist elites closer and closer to becoming a single political enity, a Federal superstate (called Germany?)
Our money has always been on Italy although we hedged our bet with a wager on Hungary. And it’s starting to look as if we were correct.

Under the headline Is Italy heading for debt restructuring or euro exit? Financial newsletter Eurointelligence reports that a possible programme for Italy’s leaving the Union is already being discussed in the Italian parliament by the likely partners in a ruling coalition following the next election.
from Eurointelligence (not publicly available)

We are reporting from an important conference in Rome yesterday that has caught the Italian news headlines this morning – on the future of Italian public debt. It was organized by the Five Star Movement, held in the Italian chamber of deputies, and openly discussed issues such default mechanism inside the eurozone, sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms, parallel payment systems, and of course euro exit.

What is important about this debate is that it is now taking place in public – you can’t be more public than inside the parliament. Italians, not only the Five Star Movement, are openly talking about these issues.

One of us was on the podium, where we reiterated our criticism of the Five Star Movement’s previous-held cavalier notion of a euro referendum. The essential point we were trying to make in the debate, well reflected in this morning’s coverage by the main newspapers, is that euro exit is not a decision to be taken lightly. The announcement of a referendum would produce a financial crisis and might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Euro exit belongs to the category of things that, citing Shakespeare’s Macbeth, “if it were done when ‘tis done, then ‘twere well It were done quickly“.

What struck us about this event was the sheer political leverage. Luigi di Maio, the presumptive Five Star candidate for the job of prime minister, seemed to distance himself from supporting euro exit. He sat through the entire 12-hour marathon of discussions. Beppe Grillo and Davide Casaleggio made short appearances. It was very clear that the Five Star Movement is now aggressively tackling the topic of Italy’s future in the eurozone, which is likely to become a major election issue. It also raises questions, as some Italian commentators did this morning, about possible coalition choices for the party if it adopts a more nuanced position on the euro.

A lot of space was given to a discussion on fiscal money – coupons issued by the state to people for use in tax payments. We recall that Yanis Varoufakis worked on a similar scheme for Greece, and one of his advisers at the time gave some details of how such a scheme can be made to work and why it did not work in Greece. The answer is that it requires an extraordinary degree of technical and logistical preparation that is outside the scope of what most governments are physically capable of.

Conferences such as these never reach consensus, but they bring up questions. One of the questions on fiscal money is whether it is sustainable or merely transitional. Is it just an instrument through which a country transitions to a new currency, or just a short-term liquidity measure, or can it work as a supplemental form of money?

Another discussion that struck us was a paper by Alberto Bagnai and Brigitte Granville, who did a stochastic simulation of the costs of euro exit. They noted that there would be an initial cost but that strong counter-cyclical growth would soon resume. The problem with this simulation is that it does not take sufficiently into account the multiple financial shocks that are likely to be dominant during such a phase. Euro exit would do major damage to the financial system both of Italy and the eurozone. The authors have a variable that includes a banking crisis, but we do not think this does justice to the financial Armageddon we are likely to see after an Italian euro exit.

And finally, we noted a comment by Heiner Flassbeck, formerly at the German finance ministry and Unctad, who noted that there can be no solution to the eurozone’s persistent crisis unless one insists on symmetric adjustment in the eurozone. He advocates the strategy that Italy should make a credible threat to leave the eurozone in order to force a German policy shift.

All of Italy’s major political parties, except for the  Democratic Party, the party of Matteo Renzi’s failed government, have flirted with supporting moves to leave the Euro. The current front runners in polls, not that polls are a predictor of outcomes, as we have learned several times recently, with only the french election reflecting polling figures and it is widely suspected that the French result was decided before a single vote was cast.

The path to Italeave is not easy, a referendum and a constitutional change will be required before any decision can be ratified, but trouble is brewing on a huge number of fronts simultaneously:
The Italian banking system is insolvent.

Another refugee crisis is brewing as flimsy, overloaded boats bring thousands of new illegal entrants every week.
Italy’s youth unemployment is a whopping 37%
The ECB is the only buyer for Italian bonds and yields are at record levels
Italy’s debt to GDP ratio is over 130% to the consternation of Eurozone officials
The global recovery still is not happening or EU members.
It is no longer taboo in Italy to talk of leaving the EU or taking back control of the nation’s borders.
Any number of things could start a chain reaction making Italeave look good to a majority of Italian voters. And despite the recent stitch up of Five Star movement in local elections, the other anti – immigration, anti – federalisation parties, Liga Nord and Forza Italia made big advances.
And when Italy goes, more will follow, at an accelerating rate we predict.


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Quitaly Begins: Italy referendum: ‘People don’t trust establishment, want big changes’

The defeat of Italian Prime Minister Renzi's in Sunday's referendum on constitutional reform, though not a surprise in the way that Brexit and Donald Trump’s win in the US Presidential election, show that people are not happy with their government’s performance, don’t trust the elite and want more radical reforms, says Italian journalist, Marcello Foa. Renzi had been an ardent pro - European even though he is a vocal critic of the EU's immigration and austerity policies, and has called for Italy to take back control of its own finances.

The reforms in Renzi's proposals would have made it more difficult for the upper house in Italy's national assembly to veto laws put forward by the administration, thus making it easier for pro - EU federalisation governments to impose changes to legislation demanded by the unelected bureaucrats of the EU's ruling European Commission. 


On the defeat of his referendum proposal being announced, Renzi immediately resigned, saying his government's position had become untenable. The defeat was by a substantial margin with about 60% of votes cast going to the NO campaign, led by satirist and comedian Beppe Grilo's Five Star movement. At least the globalist propagandists of mainstream media cannot honestly describe Five Star as 'extreme right wing'. While the movement may be opposed to uncontrolled mass immigration, further surrender of sovereign powers to EU bureaucrats in Brussels and continued membership of the single currency system (The Euro), the main points of their policy positions (the Five Stars) put them to the left of the UK Labour Party, France's Socialists, Germany's Social Democrats and the USA's Obmacrats.

Beppe Grillo, 5 Star leader and Virginia Raggi, Mayor of Rome

As was the case with Brexit and Trump, Italy's populist movement, which is made up of Five Star and the more conservative but equally anti - establishment Liga Nord, is hard to pigeonhole in the simplistic categories of left and right or conservative and liberal. In many ways, it is easier to define by what it is not rather than what it is. Italian populism sees itself as Euro-skeptic, anti-establishment (whether left or right) and anti-corruption.

When Beppe Grillo founded the Five Star Movement (M5S), the standard-bearer of Italian populism, was so-named because of the five causes it originally espoused: public water, improved transportation, sustainable development (not in the narrow sense of subsidised wind and solar energy, but sustainable agriculture and a less consumerist culture,) free internet access and environmentalism. These are hardly right-wing causes, but nor are they the agenda of the Italian centre - left political establishment which supports European federalism, globalism and an economic model based on infinite economic growth.

After M5S scored major victories last June, winning mayoral races in Rome and Turin as well as over a dozen other cities, it established itself as Italy’s most significant opposition force. Its rise in popularity has continued unabated ever since.

“The propaganda of the regime and all its lies are the first losers of this referendum,” said Beppe Grillo, “Times have changed.”

Virginia Raggi, Rome’s M5S mayor, called the referendum outcome a victory for democracy, tweeting that “our revolution will not stop, in Rome and in Italy.”

Renzi had to resign because the referendum, which most Italians saw as a chance to express their distate for Renzi and the European Union,  was his initiative. 
  
Italian journalist Anna MazzoneMazzone argues that the majority of Italians would prefer the government to focus on other things rather than amending the constitution. The country’s economy “is suffering” she said, and “almost three million Italians” live in poverty; addressing these problems should be a priority for authorities.

“The solution could be to focus on the problems, instead of other things like the constitution, for example. This government failed because it proposed a lot of reforms like the Jobs Act,” Mazzone told RT. The labor reform proposed by Renzi was known as the Jobs Act was “not effective” in sorting the problem of unemployment as “34 percent of young Italians still cannot find a job,” she added.

Another Italian journalist, Marcello Foa, argues that Matteo Renzi, who had been very popular at the beginning of his time in office, “was promising too much” but didn’t fulfill many of his promises.

“A large part of the population doesn’t trust him anymore,” he told Russia Today. Mainly the referendum was about people deciding between giving “this kind of prime minister” more powers or keeping unchanged “the constitution, which has been very reliable and affordable for many years,” he said.


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Italian Hottie Leads Anti EU Revolt In Rome's Mayoral Election

by Egbert Nobakon

Hottie Virginia Raggi, leading contender for Mayor of Rome (picture AFP)

Decades of corruption and chronic dysfuntion have totally destroyed the credibility of Rome’s city hall, but at last, inspired perhaps by the anti EU, anti establishment mood engulfing much of Europe (viz this week's civil unrest in France), citizens are rebelling against the cosy cronyism of the traditional biopoly and the status quo politicians who benefit from it. Voters are abandoning traditional parties in favor of the populist ‘Five Star Movement’, whose candidate is 37-year-old lawyer, Virginia Raggi.

Putting her career in law on hold to run for office, Disgusted by the decades of corruption and cronyism in Rome's civic government, Raggi has put her legal career on hold to campaign for change and a return of power to the people through a truly democratic process. She now leads the pack of established party candidates in her bid to be Rome’s first female mayor.

Raggi has certainly measured the mood of Roman citizens well, they are sick of the antic of local politicians who see public office purely as an opportunity to enrich themselves by plundering public funds as well as the embarrassment of living in a city where public services simply don't work.

“Rome has to first and foremost get back to being a normal city,” Raggi said in a recent interview with Agence France Presse, "for ordinary Romans, it is an extremely difficult place to live and that is not right for the capital of Italy."

According to opinion polls, many voters who usually support Italy’s leftist parties feel betrayed by their leaders and are supporting Raggi. The shift toward the populist and anti-establishment Five Star Movement (and the equally populist, but exclusively northern party Liga Nord) signals more than a push back against the incompetence and economic failure of Italy's centre left. It also reflects profound dissatisfaction with the status quo of Italy’s political establishment, whom many see as a spineless lackeys of the European Union, and its de facto representative, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.

The Five Star Movement was founded in 2009 by television comedian Beppe Grillo, a Eurosceptic who has publicly defended Nigel Farage of Britain’s like-minded UKIP.



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