The Shooting Wars and the Currency Wars

 

As the shooting wars grind on in Ukrsine, Gaza, Syria, The Red Sea, Sudan and e;sewhere, the main theatre of war is now shifting from the battlefields to the financial centres of the world.

Many of you will have been reading in mainstream media about de-dollarization recently, and may have been surprised to learn of the various attempts and strategies being deploted to facilitate trade among the various countries' currencies without using the US dollar, which has been the main reserve currency for intrnational trade since World War Two. You may be even more surprised to learn that Boggart Blog and its various offshoots have been writing about de-dollarisation and currency wars for over ten years. Most international trade is still conducted in dollars, which means the buyer has to purchase dollars in order to make the settle the transaction, and that often means the sale is settled at a U.S.-controlled bank ... a situation which many nations feel Washington has exploited unfairly to preserve its global economic hegemony.

The established world order has come to the dangerous state it is curreently in, because the U.S. exerts uses its position of economic dominance via he dollar to exert political influence. To put it bluntly the U.S.A. has "weaponised" finance. Avoiding the U.S.ninvolvement in cross border transactions is complex and there's a lot of resistance to change particularly from US banks.

There are a number of new, rapidly developing tools and organizations to do this job, and more importantly there are new players with major resources and even bigger motivations that have committed themselves to make non-dollar-denominated trade easy, reliable and fast. And soon. For example, next time Israel attacks Hezbollah Lebanon, Iran could weaoponise the Strait of Hormuz to trigger a global economic and energy crisis.

Russia and China, two of the nations, along with Iran, that started the move to de dollarise world trade over a decade ago are leading, their BRICs trading bloc is likely to be the first major beneficiary of the new trading tools, and now Saudi Arabia has weighed in: SA has let the "price all oil sales in dollars" deal with the U.S. lapse.

This has now been reported in the U.S. and European mainstream media press , with all the appropriate consternation over likely impacts.

M.K Bhadrakumar (IndiaPunchline.com) has a new article out that covers the waterfront - the technologies, the big players, the Saudis, and the impact on the U.S. of de-dollarization. If you're new to the subject, this is a decent place to start.

As many critics have pointed out, everyone knows _why_ other countries are motivated to de-dollarize. The question is "what's the alternative?".

Alternatives get built when the motivation, resources, and capability thresholds are met. They've been met.

If the Saudis actually do start pricing in currencies other than dollars (remember, letting the deal lapse, and actually pricing their oil in different currencies are two separate events), and if China and Russia really do build the multi-currency trading system for BRICS, and remember they have already started the process by creating the 'petroyuan' to rival the global standard 'ptrodollar vehicle for ttrading oil futuresd, this is certin to bring to an end the "exorbitant privilege" of the U.S. as issuer or the global reserve currency.

And that will be a major, major change in the U.S.' situation.

For further reading, search "mBridge" and "BRICs". That'll provide much food for thought.

 

[ Currency Wars ] ... [ Culture Wars ] ... [ Middle East ] ... [ Ukraine ] ... [ free sppech murdered ] ... [ death of democracy ] ... [ New World Order ]

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Currency Wars Versus The Gold Standard

 

We Boggart Bloggers have reported that although the battle lines in NATO's proxy war in Ukraine are drawn along the border between Ukraine's Russian speaking eastern provinces and the western part of the country there is another battle being fought on the economic front as Russia, China and their allies manoeuvre to replace the US$ as global reserve currency. American trade policy in  banning of Chinese technology, notably of Huawei, the world leader in G5 mobile technology is n intended not just to suppress competition to American technology but also to discourage inward investment to China. And Russia's invasion of Ukraine (following extreme provocation by Ukraine with support from the NATO powers it must be said,) gave the US government an excuse to cut Russia out of global currency markets.

That action, along with other economic sanctions set in train a series of events and rebounded badly on the West, particularly EU member states as misguided 'green energy' policies imposed by Brussels had made the EU heavily dependent on imported gas from Russia for domestic fuel and electricity generation. In the short term the rouble soared in value when Putin responded to western energy sanctions by setting his own payment terms. But since then, the rouble has declined as the US Federal Reserve has massively increased America's national debt in order to prop up the struggling dollar.

But Russia and China have not been standing still, Putin appointed one of his advisers, Sergei Glazyev, to design a trade settlement currency, initially for the Eurasian Economic Union. Simultaneously China was making deals with oil exporters and importers to use the Yuan as the default currency for settling oil contracts, thus beginning an assault on the 'Petrodollar, which has been the standard currency in which oil was traded since the early 1970s. 

It is believed that the plan for a gold backed BRICS (Brazil, Russia,India, China, South Africa) international currency was extended at the recent BRICS summit last month. China’s yuan is a component in the IMF’s SDR, a hard-won privilege which might have been threatened if it backed gold as a trade settlement medium. India has a history of Keynesian monetary policies and is keen to develop trade links with the US and its allies, as demonstrated by its hosting of the G20 meeting last weekend and its prospective free trade agreement with the UK. These partners may fear that the consequences of implementing a gold standard might be destabilising for the global currency system before the BRICS alternative is ready to step up.

There is bound to be spreading dissent in NATO this winter as energy shortages begin to bite, in fact the process has already started in Germany where the domestic economy is in freefall without any help from the political incompetence of world leaders. The most recent salvo on the energy front in the war  coincides with the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere. Russia and Saudi Arabia , the two biggest oil exporters, have jointly been squeezing oil supplies, pushing crude prices above the G7’s price caps as a means of giving the finger to Joe Biden's handlers who had given strict orders that oil supplies were not to be cut. One area where supply line shortages will hurt the Europeans more immediately is heating oil, which is also regarded as the proxy for diesel prices having increased in dollars by nearly 50% in the last quarter alone.

The importance of diesel is that logistics in Europe and America are almost entirely dependent upon it. No diesel and no freight can be moved by rail or road, not to mention by sea. On top of earlier OPEC+ cuts of 2 million barrels per day, the latest cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day cuts in oil output by Russia and Saudi Arabia are bringing pressure to bear on the supply of distillates (of which diesel is one) and Russia also plans to cut its diesel exports by a quarter, partly due to refinery maintenance (allegedly) and partly to divert supplies to its domestic economy. While the EU’s gas reserves are relatively full at 90% of capacity, it is not nearly enough to see the EU through the winter. From December onwards, there will be a scramble for more supplies. And the end of the agreement on Black Sea grain exports will put further pressure on food prices as well.

Russians are aware that effect of American monetary policy,  whether intended or not, is undermining the true value of their oil, something they have been powerless to correct without binding the price of oil to gold. In spite of that it is a mistake to assume this bid to establish a gold standard is a result on the war. In our currency wars page Russia’s motivation to take control of energy values was behind its proposal for a new BRICS gold backed currency and that it was part of a two-step plan.

The first step was to send a signal to markets that the era of the fiat dollar was over, justifying the second step which was for Russia and China, followed by other nations in the BRICS camp to evolve their own currencies onto gold standards as a protective response to a declining dollar. But China was not going to take the offensive against the dollar, and the Keynesian Indians were not convinced.

Russia will take the BRICS presidency next year, so we can assume that the new BRICS currency has not gone away. Meanwhile, if Russia is to use the oil weapon against the West, then it must put the rouble onto a gold standard again as a matter of urgency (it was on a gold standard until Khrushchev devalued the rouble in 1961). If Russia prevaricates on this issue, then Putin’s legacy to be a latter-day Peter the Great will be destroyed by his own currency.

The possible consequences of a Russian gold standard

In the middle of a war, usually a government suspends its gold standard. This would suggest that Russia can only consider a gold standard after its special operation in Ukraine is over. But the modern equivalent of a gold standard, the currency board, has been successfully established in modern times in nations with far worse budget deficits than Russia. Russia was in the fortunate position of a budget deficit of only 2.3% of GDP last year, despite military spending. This year, military spending has soared, and at a guess the deficit will be about 5% of GDP this year, but government debt to GDP will still be about 20%.

Anything other than ball-park numbers for the Russian economy are difficult to come by, and the volatility of the rouble is a further analytical hazard. But some of these numbers are not substantially different from where Britain was economically in 1816, when a return to the gold standard was planned — the exception being her estimated debt to GDP number, which at nearly 200% was ten times that of Russia today. Therefore, there is no reason why Russia cannot put the rouble onto a gold standard immediately.

In doing so, the objective is simple: to ensure that the purchasing power of circulating credit retains its value in terms of goods and services with as little fluctuation as possible. It would allow savers to accumulate credit balances in their bank accounts, and for businessmen to calculate the profitability of their investments with greater certainty. With income tax currently at a flat 13% rate and corporation tax at 20%, in these conditions economic progress will advance surprisingly rapidly. And there is every reason to expect Russia would quickly become an economic counterweight to the sheer power of China, rather than living off the depletion of her natural resources. It is necessary not just for Russia to distance herself from the fate of the western fiat currency system, but also for President Putin’s legacy.

The method of ensuring monetary stability is equally simple: to bind credit denominated in roubles to gold, which both in law and naturally is the money of the people. It is the highest form of credit, there being no counterparty risk. It’s purchasing power in the general sense has held steady through millennia. Importantly, it removes the currency from political control and dollar influences. It allows for the creation and destruction of credit determined solely by the needs of the Russian people, both as businessmen and consumers.

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The New World Order Versus The BRICS World Order

 

Last week’s Brics summit was supposed to herald the dawn of a new world order. It would announce the end of the American era and the rise of another, this time belonging to developing nations. It would even, according to excitable analysts, be remembered as another Bandung Conference, the 1955 meeting that paved the way for a non-aligned movement during the Cold War.

And on that front, the gathering in Johannesburg succeeded. The organisation announced its first expansion since its founding in 2009: next year, the five original Brics members — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — will be joined by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina (provided the current government wins the upcoming elections, which seems unlikely). Even more significantly, the summit underscored the bloc’s inclination to use its increasing economic clout to challenge the Western-dominated global order. The combination of these two elements — growing economic muscle and political boldness — means that the bloc (to be renamed Brics Plus) has become a full-blooded geopolitical actor that can longer be ignored.

However western soft power is still too strong for Brics or Brics plus or Brics Alpha to have much immediate effect. Only time will tell whether it has long term staying power.

As long as the global population consumes Hollywood and Westen media, wears Westen luxury brands and accessories, aspires to western luxury vehicles, reads western content, sends their children to western schools, colleges and universities, prefers western sons and daughters in law, maintains savings in dollars, euros and pounds in western banks in western countries, this new bloc will have a mountain to climb if it is to fulfill the ambition to undermine American hegemony and replace the US$ as the global reserve currency. There are signs though that steady progress is already being made towards achieving those goals.

On the other hand, the Achilles’ heel of the USA and its NATO and EU allies is the finances of western, debt dependent economies – and especially in the use of the dollar as a reserve currency. This is the area in which BRICS can pose the greatest threat: if the dollar fails America fails. And NATO / EUmember states will be dragged down with it.

For comparison, the downfall of the British Empire was as much about declining financial strength as anything else. Having built up an enormous pool of investments by 1914 in America, Argentina, India, etc etc it had to sell half to finance WW1 and the rest for WW2. By 1945 it was running on IOUs of which one form was the continued willingness of many countries to hold their reserves as Sterling at the Bank of England. The history of 1945 to 1975 was largely a matter of these IOUs coming due and the British trying to cut their colonies, overseas garrisons and other commitments to economise – and simultaneously becoming subservient to their largest creditor, America.

Today America appears to be where Britain was then. The only difference is that Washington has dissipated its foreign investments and sold its bonds to the highest bidder in order to finance a credit driven boom rather than two world wars. American indebtedness at all levels is truly astounding.

The Chinese have long been adept at exploiting weaknesses in the West’s financial and foreign policies and usually astute enough to avoid challenging western supremacy where it cannot win. On a military level, they developed relatively cheap long range missiles which have neutralised the US Pacific fleet. Now they are using the BRICS to hit America where it will hurt financially – by pushing the de dollarisation of official reserves and the oil futures market.

The Chinese are playing a more crafty game in this new Cold War than the Russians did in the old one – or Putin has recently. Maybe Go produces subtler strategists than Chess or Poker.

 

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The Demise Of Dollar Hegemony: Russia Breaks Wall Streets's Oil-Price Monopoly In a move that went almost completely unreported in mainstream media, Russia has recently opened a market for the trading of physical and 'paper' oil (futures) in Moscow in Roubles. This is the most blatant challenge yet to the domination of the US dollar in world trade.

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Russia Will Never Recover From War In Ukraine Claim Zelensky Fan Club As Russia Continues to Crush Ukrainian War Effort

 by Egbert Nohbakkon 2 April 2023

An inside page headline in yesterday's (1 April 2023) Daily Telegraph claims 'Russia will never recover from this devastating collapse,' though the article below it does not quite make clear exactly what collapse the writer is talking about. The Telegraph has been unashamedly pro Ukraine, Zelensky worshipping and Russophobic in its coverage since day one of the war and the article was not an April Fool joke (the Telegraho did have a rather good one about the UK government planning to put wind turbines on top of tall buildings.) 

Wind Turbine on London's BT Tower (Daily Telegraph)

Almost every day new victories for the glorious Ukrainian military have been proclaimed, readers have been told the Russian economy was in a state of collapse due to western sanctions, the Russian military was in disarray with troops on the brink of mutiny, the Russian war machine was out of artillery ammunition, Soviet era tanks were being brought out of storage and Vladimir Putin was suffering from terminal cancer and on his deathbed (if not already dead. And some were gullible enough to believe it.

By all means, both sides of the case should be explored and investigated, and while it is clear the 'Special Military Operation has not gone to plan for Moscow, objective reports agree that Ukraine is suffering massive material damage to its infrastructure and is suffering heavy casualties. 

We have seen -- as in all wars -- senior commanders being replaced for poor performance. And by all means, if there are any additional preparations we can make in readiness should the war spill beyond Ukraine, or is any incremental threat to the security of western nations that flows from this conflict, our leaders should also prepare to deal with the consequences.

Perhaps the most concerning is the suggestion, which is not entirely incredible, that there is a fifth column of elites either actively working towards Russia's defeat, or to ensure that it does not succeed too well. I think they may exist; but it also seems their position is considerably weaker than before the SMO. They might regain some degree of power if events turn decisively against Russia.

However as things stand sanctions have failed to dent Russia's economy and have damaged the NATO member states that imposed them far more than the target. Worse, Russia is now economically closer to China with India, Iran, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and a host of emerging economies eafer to do business with Russia and China.

But let us assume for a moment, that all of the specific events (if not the secret intentions and agendas) in this account are roughly accurate; then the main point is that Russia is quietly succeeding and NATO noisily failing in spite of all this across multiple domains (which should be considered in tandem as elements of total warfare): military, economic, defense-industrial, logistical, strategic commodity access, technology, sustainability, diplomacy (outside West), geopolitical alliances, currency, domestic support...

Insofar as this general picture is true, in its totality and in almost all of its particulars, this is the diametrical opposite of what Western 'strategic planners' anticipated, publicly forecasted, & bet our life savings on.

From this, at the very least, we can infer that the general premises and foundational concepts underpinning Western strategic planning--things such as GDP, financialized vs industrial economies, military spending as a reflection of or proxy for military strength, reality based analysis vs self-defeating propaganda (e.g., lack of respect for Russian military, industry, technocracy, technology), a war of territorial gains, battlefield symbolism & information warfare vs. macro-strategic thinking, logistics, & attritional warfare--should by now be greetied with ever increasing skepticism.

Conversely, we might at least seriously entertain the possibility--without lapsing into Copium--that the Russian strategic planners are better--indeed vastly better than the Zelensky fan club view would support, and considerably better than we have seen from the West to this point.

Let's take the issue of the bridgies on the Dneiper bridges for example. The failure of the Russian military to bomb these strategically importand bridges is repeatedly cited as proof of the Russian military leadership's incompetence. But why would anyone imagine that a Russian strategic-planning team that is at least holding its own against (if not humiliating) a 50-country Western adversary, does NOT GRASP THE IMPORTANCE OF BRIDGES? Assuming, instead, that they are not far more stupid than we are, and that they do understand, then, either:
a) they don't think they can take the bridges out (if so, case closed);
b) they don't want to take them out.

Why wouldn't they want to take them out if they can (and still assuming they aren't stupid)? Is the next best explanation traitorous or corrupt intent?

Is there a broader strategic vision in which this would make sense--might even be strategically clever?

Better strategic minds than mine might conjure better scenarios but here's one:

Arguably from the before the SMO, or at least soon after, Russia recognized itself to be at war with NATO--indeed a NATO that was brashly talking about crushing Russia's economy, crashing its financial system, triggering a Moscow Maidan (or more likely a Palace Coup of Atlanticist elites) while it launched a long-term NAZI mujahideen guerrilla campaign after the inevitable quick & bloody Russian victory. A victory that in the NATO mind would have required a full-frontal tank assault on the massively fortified Maginot line built over 8 years in the Donbass, & likely at the cost of something on the order of 150,000 to 200,000 Russian KIAs, or more if the standard 3:1 attacker:defender ratio were also reflective of casualty ratios.

Let's just say that Russia has given them something very, very different. Overall, an economy of force operation and war of attrition.

Though Russian losses are hard to calculate (and Ukraine's impossible with any precision), the only credible Western source with a plausible & announced methodology is the BBC's survey, producing evidence for only 16,000 burials. Conversely, not only is there now nearly universal recognition that Ukraine losses are staggeringly high (anywhere from 120k to 350k KIAs), this represents something even more than demilitarization per se, but the elimination of an increasing proportion of the mobilization potential from which the 20-year, stay-behind, nazi guerrilla campaign would be drawn.

As for the war of attrition, it's now clear that Russia more or less on its own is winning that war against a 50-country Western block that includes 30 of the world's highest-GDP per capita economies.

If Russia's planners are fools, knaves or traitors, they're doing it wrong.

I would argue that almost from the beginning Russia has been conducting the war in such a way as to essentially counter and overcome the West's advantages--real but also falsely imagined--and exploit its weaknesses.

Russia has managed to a remarkable degree the pace and escalation of conflict, such that the West, rather than being terrified and spurred to full wartime mobilization by an overwhelming display of Russian power, has instead conducted a remarkable campaign of maskirovka on itself. (Russia weak, corrupt, incompetent, stupid--sound familiar?)

As a result, instead of joining its full NATO forces to the Ukraine military that was at full strength a year ago, the West has watched that UKR military broken twice, then seen thousands of mercenaries and weapons fed into a buzzsaw in the Donbass like those sushi boats we see being floated down to hungry customers at the far end of a sushi counter.

If you decided you must be ready for a NATO (or coalition of the willing) attack at any time--especially after a battered Russia had lost 200k KIAs in a frontal assault on the Donbass--WHERE would you choose to fight? Close to the Russian borders in the East & South or at the end of a 1000k logistical train (across the Dniepr BRIDGES) in Western Ukraine?

Meanwhile, by slowing the pace of engagements, Russia has been able to fully restart its defense-industrial complex, and partially mobilize without sacrificing the civilian economy to the war. New weapons systems and tactics are being steadily tested and deployed. The mobilized are clearly receiving intensive training, likely in new doctrines. The Russian technical education system--already strong--is being upgraded.

And of course, this overall building of war fighting strength, should be seen to include military backing available from allied countries (Iran, China & perhaps NK) and keeping other major economic partners onside.

Indeed it could be speculated that *from the beginning* the primary constraint driving Russia's choices from a menu of strategic and operational options is to fight only at a pace and in a manner that *increases* Russia's overall war readiness in comparison to NATO's in the event of a NATO attack.

This, after all, is exactly the time-biding strategy Russia was pursuing before the SMO and why they delayed an incursion as long as they did. But instead of letting the war interrupt this process--they have accelerated it, with the forces that weaken the West now in overdrive, and Russia now a year ahead at least in actual mobilization for large-scale combat.

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India Takes A Leading Role In De-Dollarization

 

19 March 2023

Reuters reported last Wednesday that “India’s Oil Deals With Russia Dent Decades-Old Dollar Dominance”, which highlighted the growing tendency of those and many other nations using national or or third-party currencies to settle cross border trades thus sidelining the US$ which has dominated international trade since the 1970s. 

The dollar was adopted as the primary reserve currency for international trade in 1945, and the petrodollar was established became the medium for oil trades as a result of an agreement in 1971 between the USA and Saudi Arabia.

The growing use of national or third part currencies is something significant that everyone involved i  international trade or finance should pay attention to. We reported in our currency wars feature soon after Russia’s (ahem,) special military operation began that the West’s sanctions, imposed with the aim of destroying the Russian economy, “could erode the dollar’s dominance”. Naturally we were written off as crazy conspiracy theorists for holding such an opinion but ...

Lo and behold, that’s precisely what happened, with India of all countries accelerating de-dollarization through its non-dollar-denominated energy deals with Russia. 

Since India decided that supporting US / EU sanctions was not in its best interests, Russia has become India’s largest supplier of oil and over the past year has provided a whopping 35% of that country’s needs. India is also the world’s third-largest oil importer and fifth-largest economy. having recently overtaken the UK to occupy that spot. Their new energy ties, and particularly the growing de-dollarization dimension of their deals thus must have effects all around the world.

This refusal to support sanctions or openly demonstrate support for Ukraine does not signify any anti-American sentiment on India’s part since everything is purely motivated by the pursuit of that country’s objective national interests. Delhi had no choice but to distance itself from dollar-denominated energy trades  with Moscow due to Washington’s illegal sanctions on nations that trade with Russia. Its leaders were not going to plunge the world’s most populous country into an economic crisis just to please the Dementia Joe and his whacko administration by eschewing the import of discounted oil from Russia or sacrificing the revenue earned from its exports to Russia.

By defying American pressure upon it to unilaterally concede on those aforementioned objective national interests, India’s economy ended up growing at twice the pace of China’s, which contributed to catapulting that country to the forefront of the  global systemic transition to multipolarity

. India is now well placed to establish itself as the de facto leader the Global Global South in helping fellow developing countries balance between U.S. hegemony  and the  Sino-Russo Entente. However, in spite of claims made by Dementia Joe, Boris Johnson when he was Prme Minister, Emmanuel Macron and leaders of other NATO / EU member states that the world was closing ranks around Ukraine, emboldened by the stances of Russia and China (which has its own little contretemps with the Biden administration over Taiwan, while the EU's 27 member states, the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan and New Zealand (for what its worth), are supporting Zelensky's futile war, the rest of the world seems happy with a 'business as usual' relationship with Russia.

Had India complied with the US’ illegal sanctions, then the New York Times wouldn’t have recently admitted that their sanctions failed as the West’s efforts to “isolate” Russia politically also had. It was largely due to India's truly independent grand strategy that this latest phase of the New Cold War

 didn’t end in the collapse of Russia's economy and the restoration of unipolarity, which would have been detrimental to India and every other developing country’s interests while you could have safely bet your life savings that the Americans would have taken advantage of the loss of Russian oil and gas exports to EU member states to well and truly shaft the major European economies.

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Will Commodities Be The New Reserve Currency As The Death Knell Of The Dollar Sounds?

 

Many respected economists and market analysts who favour the free markets approach concur that the world is heading into a new monetary order – what Zoltan Poszar of Credit Susse has called Bretton Woods III. Ignoring the bollocks being spouted by Klaus Schwab with his Great Reset and Joe (Dementiaman) Biden and his Build Back Better, we are heading towards a new economic reality that will see the collapse of the US$ as the default reserve currency, to be replaced not by any other fiat currency such as the Euro or the Renminbi, but by a system in which  commodities are the primary denominator of value. Should this turn out to be the case we can expect an acceleration of the shift in geopolitical power from west to East.

“When this crisis (and war) is over, the U.S. dollar should be much weaker and, on the flipside, the renminbi much stronger, backed by a basket of commodities,” said Pozsar in his dispatch on March 7.

For politicians and business leaders this will cause huge and complicated problems as the follies of their virtue signalling green agendas and net zero energy policies are exposed. For us ordinary punters it will mean a rough ride ahead:

• inflation will stay high, destroying the value of savings and pension funds.
• interest rates on our borrowings will be higher, rates on our savings will stay low
  
• Costs of food and consumer goods as well as energy products will be higher putting luxury goods beyond the reach of many people
  
• Unemployment may fall as manufacturing industry is repatriated.
  
• Virtue signalling policies such as the EU's paying farmers to let agricultural land return to nature (rewilding) will be abandoned as importing basic foods becomes too expensive
  

Due to the effects of  rising commodity prices and the political instability resulting from the Russia-Ukraine war is starting to change  our relationship with money from how we know it.

Currently the values of  all major currencies are defined by nominal values in relation to the US$, agreed and regulated by institutions such as the Central Banks. In future the real values of the commodities must be a factor in determining values. Commenting on the Biden Administration's bid to freeze Russia out of world markets by expelling Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, Vyacheslav Volodin, the speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, as reported by the BBC this week, told the world: “If you want gas, find roubles.”

 The Kremlin followed up with a bombshell that has hardly been mentioned by mainstream media:

The Kremlin also said Russia could start demanding payment in roubles for other commodities such as fertiliser, grain, metals and timber.

This means that Russia isn’t merely demanding rubles for gas and oil exports; it’s also going to demand rubles for commodities.

The ruble requirement begins today (1 April,) and will be rolled out across existing contracts over the next several weeks and months, according to the Russian finance ministry. Many European nations, notably Germany, depend on Russian gas to power their cities, nomes, offices and factories. The day that the gas tap is turned off is the day that Germany’s economy collapses and the nation is pluncged into chaos, suffering irreversible economic damage due to mass bankruptcies of German-based businesses.

European leaders have insisted they will refuse to pay for Russian energy exports with rubles. Such threats will be exposed as empty bluster the moment the lights go out and the machines stop working because the gas that fuels the power stations has stopped flowing.  The exclusion of of Russia from financial systems means Russia is largely unable to use dollars or euros. So there’s no point in Russia trading gas for fiat currencies that it can’t use and doesn’t want. So long as the West’s sanctions remain in place, if Russia were to sell gas for dollars or euros, that would be the equivalent of giving away its natural resources for free.

It is worth noting that the rouble has already fullly recovered from its plunge in currency markets immediately following the imposition of economic sanctions by the West. While the corporate media was initially claiming Russia’s currency would collapse within days, as this blog predicted the opposite has happened. Russia’s currency is actually climbing steadily in value while the dollar, the euro and the yen are all losing value at a shocking rate.

So why should The Kremlin not simply order pipeline operators to turn off taps on the pipelines to Europe and sell to China, India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Philippines (about half the world's population between them.)

It is already happening “Germany and Austria have taken the first steps towards gas rationing,” the BBC reported this week. Austria relies on Russia for 80% of its natural gas. Germany simply has to find Roubles.

And no country is going to give away energy for free. Especially not to a group of “unfriendly” nations that unleashed economic warfare against you in the first place.

 

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Mainstream media reporting of the conflict in Ukraine has disappointed. Perhaps I was naive to suppose that lessons might have been learned from the hits their print sales and online traffic rates took as a result of their handling the COVID pandemic But instead of focusing on the most obviously newsworthy aspect of the build up to and escalation of the war, Russia’s view of NATO expansion into Ukraine and even further to Georgia and Kazakhstan, news reports have simply demonised Russia and portrayed Ukraine as the good guys.

Europe's Depleted Gas Storage Might Not Get Refilled Ahead Of Next Winter
While mainstream news reporting of the conflict in Ukraine continues to pump out a torrent of anri - Russia, pro - war propaganda the catastropic effects of this war that could so easily have been avoided are not mentioned. Well why would warmongering governments admit they have inflicted an energy crisis, food shortages and soaring living costs on their people for no good reason ...

More Nations backing Away From The US$
Russia Just Sent out a Message NATO Should Better Listen To
The key paragraph from the latest official Russian naval doctrine is that Putin and his military advisers have sent a clear message that NATO encroachment is unacceptable. To be honest, there is nothing earth shattering in this, The Daily Stirrer and many other alternative media news and analysis sites have been warning for about two years that Obama's foreign policy was making conflict inevitable.

De - dollarization Moves Ahead - Once Again We Told You So,
What Putin Wants
China Warns U.S. to Stop Its Ukrainian Proxy War Against Russia
The World Rejects USA Attempt To Manipulate Venezuela
India's Ruling BJP Party Crushed In Regional Poll
Another Conspiracy Theory Becomes Fact: Oil Collapse Is All About Obama's Proxy War With Russia.
G77 Nations vow to destroy petrodollar and America’s New World Order
American Dollar Dumped
Iran's Oil and the US Dollar
Money From Rock Better Than Money From Air
Currency Wars