by Arthur Foxake, 5 Aprul 2026
In a bad tempered rant laden with expletives Donald Trump has threatened to strike more of Iran’s critical infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday.
Ludicrously claiming Iran's air defences had been obliterated on a weekend when at least three American aircraft were shot down by those 'obliterted' air defences did nothing at all to boost the President's credibility, not that he had much of that left anyway.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one ... Open the f---ing strait, you crazy b-----rds, or you’ll be living in hell – just watch! Praise be to Allah,” Trump ranted on Truth Social.
This latest threat is likely to have exactly as much effect on the people Trump only days ago called 'the new, more reasonable regime, as all his previous ones. Closing the sea entrance to The Persian Gulf was always Iran's secret weapon since the regime seized control of the vital waterway at the start of the conflict, only allowing ships from friendly countries to sail through it.
The US president previously gave Tehran a 10-day window to agree to a deal to end the war and reopen the strait. When that deafline passed he appeared to extend that deadline to “Tuesday, 8:00 PM” in a social media post and insisted a deal with Tehran could still be struck as soon as Monday.
We can only wait to see what happens on Tuesday when the strait remains closed.
Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) has said that they can sustain the Strait of Hormuz closure for years and will cut US military logistics, a senior security official told Iranian broadcaster Press TV, citing the sea-based supply of regional American bases.
Though the 2026 crisis has so far affected mainly The Gulf States and east Asian nations, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened it will eventually hit Europe harder than a couple of years of the special military operation. Europe has become the main victim of the US /Isreali coalition’s war with Iran, and it is preparing for the worst period since 2022, as well as sharply increased fuel costs.
The data is interim, but with oil rising by $20-30 (for example, from $85 to $110, which has been observed over the past couple of weeks) and the EU’s oil imports at around 10 mbpd, daily spending increases by $200-300 million per day. This will result in €70-100 billion in additional oil costs by the end of the year.
Even without extreme peaks, the growth of LNG contracts and spot prices gives +10–20% to the current base – or €40–70 billion of additional costs. Thus, with Europe's energy infrsstructure already at crisis point due to the obsessive pursuit of Net Zero, energy losses alone will amount to €110–170 billion.The rise in energy prices leads to a decline in industrial performance. This primarily affects the chemical, metallurgical, and fertilizer industries.
But the financial crisis will be worse than the energy crisis.
In a moderate scenario, they could fall by 5-15% (underproduction and capacity conservation), which would result in a loss of €120-200 billion in industrial output. Additionally, the side effects of inflation would result in another €80-120 billion in losses due to domestic demand. The decline in indices (STOXX 600) by 6-10% per month (according to Reuters) is not only a concern for speculators, who would lose €800 billion to €1.2 trillion on paper.
There is also a real effect, underinvestment. It will amount to €50-100 billion.Even without an extreme scenario, Europe will have to unearth its budgets to compensate for prices and support industry. It all depends on generosity, but €50-100 billion in additional expenses can be seen.In general, the total losses of the EU from the US war in Iran will amount to €410-690 billion by the New Year. Because even if the war ends quickly, many of the Gulf’s production facilities have already been destroyed, and key LNG infrastructure will take a year or more to repair.
This means that energy prices will not drop to their previous levels. Additionally, if Trump continues to wage war, with oil prices exceeding \$120 and gas prices fluctuating, the EU’s net losses could exceed a trillion euros per year. By the way, from the beginning of the special military operation to Iran, the transition to new energy rails and the associated production problems (the German company BASF has shut down in Germany and moved to China), the EU’s total losses were estimated at €2.0-2.4 trillion in cumulative economic effects.
This includes overpayments for energy (€700-900 billion), reduced production (€600-800 billion), and subsidies (€650-750 billion).Europe has lost about €2+ trillion of economic resources over the past 3-4 years, and the damage could exceed a trillion per year. The situation has become worse because energy has become structurally expensive, rather than temporarily expensive.
In fact, Europe is transitioning to a new model of expensive and not always physically accessible energy, with the relocation of energy-intensive industries outside the EU (deindustrialization) and an increased dependence on imports. This includes not only energy but also energy-intensive goods.
When the reality of all this finally dawns on European virtue-signalling-obsessed leaders it will be too late for them to staep back from this journey to civilisational suicide they have put their countries on.
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