Iran's Mosuito Fleet of small, fast, well armed boats patrols the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane
Every day that the conflict between USA/Israel and Iran continues and the main shipping route into The Persian Gulf remains completely or partially closed, the world is deprived of an eighth of its oil supply and must draw more deeply into its rapidly diminishing reserves.
It is rumoured that the authorities in China, which is tacitly supporting Iran, filled their strategic petroleum reserve at a breakneck pace towards the end of last year as a cushion against the fall out from another US / Israeli attack on Iran. If the worst comes to the worst they can cover 300 days of lost imports from the Gulf, and have also negotiated a deal for Russia to cover any shortfall in its supplies due to problems with the Gulf supply line.
We don't know any pf that for certain of course. The size of China's oil reserves are a state secret, and 300 days' worth is well above most estimates (90 - 130 days).
Whatever the case, it is wrong to assert that cutting off oil from the Gulf is a problem China can just shrug off - it can't. That represents a shortfall of several millions barrels a day. China can't sustain that, and those oil reserves are war reserves - it will never let them run completely dry.
In the end, it's a game of chicken. Someone has to blink first. It might be Trump, but I'm by no means certain of that.
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“The scale of the challenge has not been well understood by the aggressors: as of today, we are losing 13 million barrels per day and tomorrow it may be bigger,” said Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency. This blog reported last year during a preliminary skirmish to the war that if The USA or Israel attacked Iran the Iraian response would be to weaponise The Strait of Hormuz by blockading the movement of ships in and out..
They have done just that, and now US President Trump is blockading ships belonging to Iran's allies from using the Strait, Iran is threatening that its Houthi allies in Yemen will block the route in and out of the Red Sea, which would leave The Suez canal, capable of handling only a fraction of the traffic to and from oil ports in Saudi Arabia.
If nothing else this war should have shown the Green Loons that oil and hydrocarbons are still the world's most important trade.
The shortfall is likely to rise to 15 million barrels if the US navy carries out its plan to blockade Iranian oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which is extremely unlikely as it would mean attacking ships from China. Donald Trump launched this war with inadequate forces based on Israeli assurances – deemed “farcical” by his own CIA chief – that Iran would crumble at the first shock, thus while failure was not guaranteed, it was always more likely than a quick victory.
Tehran has warned it will expand the war to the Red Sea route if its ships are attacked or sunk, endangering another six million barrels a day at the Saudi terminal of Yanbu and causing wider havoc to global container shipping. Should this happen it will plunge everywhere in the world into a fuel crisis plus economic and political chaos.
“The ports of the Gulf are either for everyone or for no one,” the Iranian regime said.