Nuclear explosion (Picture - adobe stock image )
American President Donald Trump inexplicably gambled the future of the world and his own political legacy on achieving regime change in Iran. From last summer's first shouts in the campaign to replace the theocratic regime this blog warned that Iran was not some third world failed state which could easily be rolled over.
Now Trump's Iran gamble, which was always a risky bet, is poised on a knife edge, the Iranian's have so far given as good as they get in terms of air and drone strikes, have invoked asymmetric warfare by weaponising the Strait of Hormuz through which, when shipping can move freely through it, approximately a quarter of the worlds oil, natural gas and petroleum products are distributed..
At first, in the opening days of the current round of hostilities most conservative opinion in the USA was behind Trump but currently, five weeks into the war, it is getting harder to find commentators who are backing him to the hilt. Even some of his more usually supportive backers are getting cold feet. Andrew Day in American Conservative is worried that Trump might use nukes in Iran:
A new rhetorical theme emerged last week, when Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”. The phrase is associated with Curtis LeMay, who served as Air Force chief of staff during the Vietnam war. LeMay is known for something else too: his promotion of nuclear weapons and complaint that Americans had a “phobia” of using them.
Trump doesn’t seem to share that deranged perspective, but nuclear anxieties are growing thanks to his belligerence. Two weeks ago, a United Nations representative resigned from his post and leaked the disturbing information that “the UN is preparing for possible nuclear weapon use in Iran”. Days earlier, officials from the World Health Organisation told Politico they were worried about a possible nuclear attack.
If Trump decides to go further and actually push the big red button, at least one of his main advisors likely wouldn’t object. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has echoed Trump’s threat to send Iran back to the Stone Age, and he says US armed forces should aim for “maximum lethality, not tepid legality”.
As Trump's threats and claims have become crazier day by day it looks as if nuclear is on the agenda. Many American commentators think there is a strong likelihood the US will use a nuclear weapon. Who is going to object? America's NATO allies in the UK and Europe have surrendered the right to do that because of the way they hve distanced themselves from the whole escapade. Russia and China are Iran's allies but it is unlikely they would risk all out war with The USA over Iran. Both would probably instigate moves to have America censured by theUnited Nations and then take a PR advantage of the situation since their leadership is not crazy like ours is (in the US).
There is no certainty that the Iranians, like the Japanese will surrender should the US use a weapon of mass destruction, more likely they would retreat and allow a US occupation and then wage guerilla warfare for years, knowing that the American public do not like US soldiers returning home in body bags.
Will there be someone in the US government able to stop such a thing? We shall see. This is an existential struggle for Iran but also for the American global hegemony. If the US allows Iran to win that would be the beginning of the end of the Petrodollar Empire as many are predicting.
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