The Impact Of A SWIFT Ban On Russia And The World
Authored by Daniel Lacalle via Zero Hedge,
SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is the global financial system that allows immediate and secure transfers of money across borders. It is the web that verifies all financial transactions. It links 11,000 banks and institutions in more than 200 countries, with 40 million messages a day. Using SWIFT ensures that transactions happen in seconds in a secure way. Around 1% of those messages involve Russian payments, according to the BBC.
As part of the West sanctions against Russia, its banks have been banned from the SWIFT system. Additionally, the United States and the European Union have announced restrictions on the Russian central bank that block access to more than $600 billion in reserves. The Bank of Russia reports that only 22% of its international reserves are US Dollars, while gold accounts for 23%.
What does this mean? On the one hand, the move aims to block all options of the central bank to defend its currency from plummeting even more against the US dollar or the euro. In recent years, the Russian central bank has been reducing its exposure to US treasuries and shifting from US dollar reserves to euro and yuan, as well as gold. Access to those reserves is more difficult now, and in the case of euro and yen, probably close to impossible.
For Russian banks, the ban from the SWIFT system increases the risk of a bank run as citizens fear for the loss of their deposits and a collapse in daily operations, even if they start to use other alternatives.
However, we cannot forget there is an important impact on European banks as well. According to JP Morgan, European banks have up to $80 billion in claims with Russian banks. Being banned from SWIFT does not make these claims disappear, but if Russian banks fall into a de-capitalization process, the risks of defaults multiply.
Only three countries have been banned from SWIFT. Iran, since 2012, North Korea and now Russia, albeit partially. Oil and gas exports as well as other key commodities remain in the system.
Without SWIFT, Russian banks and the central bank are effectively blocked from operating on a global scale which means an added risk of a domino of defaults from issuers and the impossibility to conduct the most basic international operations.
However, Russian banks may bypass the SWIFT system and use other alternatives, mainly though a parallel system in China, called CIPS (Cross-Border Interbank Payments System), which facilitates transactions in yuan. According to CIPS, at least 25 Russian banks conduct yuan transactions through their system.
Using CIPS and other direct or indirect tools to bypass SWIFT has been an alternative for Iran and North Korea but does not solve the problem of access to reserves of the central bank nor does it truly mitigate the impossibility of conducting global transactions. The yuan is only used in 4% of global currency transactions according to the BIS (Bank Of International Settlements). ... Continue reading >>>
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[ Curreny Wars ] ... [ Globalisation ] ... [ Money and Finance ] ... [ Russia Ukraine ]
EXPLORE: [Daily Stirrer] ... [ Our Page on on Substack ]... [Boggart Aboad] ... [ Greenteeth Home ] ... [ Greenteeth on Minds.com ] ... [ Latest Posts ]Fertilizer Crisis About to Become a Food Crisis
by Capitalist Exploits
Monday, Feb 28, 2022
Don’t underestimate this fertilizer/agriculture fiasco. It is going to be far more severe and prolonged than what the vast majority has led themselves to believe. As Europe’s farmers prepare to spread fertilizers on fields after winter, sky-high nutrient prices are leaving them little choice but to use less and try to pass on the cost down the food chain.
For growers of staples like corn and wheat, it’s the first time they’ve really been exposed to a fertilizer crisis fueled by an energy crunch, export curbs and trade sanctions. It now costs much more to buy chemicals needed for winter crops coming out of dormancy, and the extra expense could prompt smaller spring plantings that make up roughly a third of European grain.
Europe has been hardest hit by fertilizer-plant cutbacks on soaring costs of natural gas used to run them — and nutrient prices there remain at a record even as the pressure eased in North America. Europe could face a deficit of about 9% of its annual nitrogen-fertilizer needs in the first half, VTB Capital estimates. Food may get even pricier if harvests suffer or crop prices rise.
Who would have ever thought that the closing of the Dutch Groningen gas field would lead to a fertilizer, agricultural production, food, and inflationary crisis? Well, we did actually, but never mind that. It wasn’t critical to our analysis at the time. Rather, our thinking was along the traditional energy lines. Simple rising costs of all energy components due to insufficient capex spend in the fossil fuel industry.
The thing is there were multiple reasons (or moving parts) here, and we only needed one or two of them to rear their inevitable and ugly head for profits in this space to come. It’s not always about being right but about running the probabilities and positioning oneself to get lucky.
So we positioned ourselves to get lucky in an asymmetric way. And what do you know, the “Gods of Chance” looked kindly upon us. We mention this because a few subscribers have been thanking us for “our bullish call” on SDF, having bought it in mid 2020. Well, consider yourselves lucky!
By the way, if you think being up 250% is time to “take profits,” we are thinking the upside is just getting into gear. ... Continue reading >>>
Russia – Ukraine – Who is To Blame?
Patricia Haritty, The Expose, 28 February 2022
“The first casualty when war comes is truth”.
This is a quote that is as true today as it was when California senator Hiram W Johnson, said it in 1917, and while the mainstream media and our politicians have been getting away with broadcasting provable lies for every single conflict for decades, we can be pretty certain that what we are hearing from the mainstream media is not the truth.
The propaganda machine has been indoctrinating the public for years into believing that Russia and Putin are our enemies.
This has been done by fabricating stories about Putin’s involvement in the 2016 U.S elections, tales of how Putin hacked the DNC, and claims Donald Trump was linked to a Russian bank.
Was this all fabricated to prepare us for what is happening right now?
On 24 February 2022, after weeks of speculation, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering a massive outrage all over the world. The attack on Ukraine has also created confusion as to the stance of the Russian government or more precisely President Putin on the WEF agenda.
The truth at this time concerning the Ukraine crisis is hard to find among the many discussions on social media too.
This seems to be a result of Putin announcing that Russia was launching a military operation directed towards the ‘demilitarization’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine and a Twitter thread posted not long after by @WarClandenstine claiming that Russia was targeting the Biolabs.
Although the thread was deleted soon after because of Twitter suspending the account, it can be seen in the video below, and read in its entirety here.
As Russia started attacking the military installations, speculation also began as to why the United States Biolabs established in Ukraine were also among the targets.
This led to optimism that Putin is perhaps showing signs of being against the WEF’s agenda.
[Daily Stirrer] ... [ Our Page on on Substack ]... [Boggart Aboad] ... [ Greenteeth Home ] ... [ Greenteeth on Minds.com ] ... [ Latest Posts ]The Crisis in Ukraine Is Not About Ukraine. It’s About Germany
from Great Game India
The Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s about Germany and, in particular, a pipeline that connects Germany to Russia called Nord Stream 2. Washington sees the pipeline as a threat to its primacy in Europe and has tried to sabotage the project at every turn. Even so, Nord Stream has pushed ahead and is now fully-operational and ready-to-go. Once German regulators provide the final certification, the gas deliveries will begin. German homeowners and businesses will have a reliable source of clean and inexpensive energy while Russia will see a significant boost to their gas revenues. It’s a win-win situation for both parties.
Fascism is a real problem in the US– I expect it to formally take over come the next election cycle and once its entrenched it will not be removed easily. It won’t be Stormtroopers on the street, at least no more than we’re used to anyway. It will be an ideology dominated by faith and country for the masses (the American equivalent of “Kinder, Kucher, Kircher”) and complete corporate freedom. Corruption and insider plays will be the norm, the political stage being dominated by showboaters who treat the trappings of government as a reality show since the real business of government will be business, it will be carried out administratively. There may be a fig leaf of opposition but it won’t be allowed to impact the course of government with any challenges to laws being shot down by the courts and any administrative friction being dealt with by summary firing of any administrator that fails to please the party hacks brought in to oversee the various federal administrations.
Many of us will know that we’re nearly there already. A second Trump term would have sealed the deal. Like a magic show its difficult to look away from the action to see what’s really going on — all these noisy diversions (and I regard the whole anti-vax thing as a diversion — sorry) are distractions from the business of consolidating power. There’s a lot of Astroturf out there because the stakes couldn’t be higher but I figure that come the change I’ll be all right, more or less (old, rich, white), its subsequent generations who are going to have to deal with the fallout (which, given the way things are trending, may be literally true).
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About the only thing upon which I fundamentally agreed with Christopher Hitchens was his contempt for wishful thinking (in that context, he was usually speaking about religion).
I think anyone who is trying to rally our spirits in this horrible catastrophe owes it to us to back up any statement to the effect that ‘the covid narrative is collapsing’ with some credible evidence, and not just an anecdote about their grandmother having suddenly seen right through Justin Trudeau.
The whole point of the official narrative is that it is a story – like “The American Dream” – which we are supposed to swallow without a second thought, and those who concocted the story don’t care whether we believe it or not.
The believing bit is not required – it’s only the obeying bit that’s required.
From that perspective, this is a sheer battle of wills. The psychopaths say, “Just do it!”
And we say, “No!”
But just look at which side has the numbers!
We do – unless of course we are all becoming psychopaths too…
Just saying, “NO!” is where I believe a solution lies – not in an attempt to make truth-tellers out of liars, sighted people out of the blind, and hearing people out of the deaf.
“Let those who have eyes to see” is a perfectly good attitude to take, and a tacit reminder that our current persecutors do not have those eyes to see.
We must stop trying to convince ourselves – who are already convinced – of the value of truth, and we must stop trying to convince those who don’t want to be convinced.
We just have to stop this insanity. With an endless list of initiatives like the truckers, more ‘Occupy’ initiatives, more stubborn refusals to lie down and let the mercenaries to stomp on our heads, we can surely do it.
We, here, know that large numbers of us are meeting and protesting all over the world, but the world doesn’t know it, on account of Public Enemy No. 1 – the media.
So the media must be forced, by our sheer numbers, to do their only legitimate job, which is to report what is really going on, instead of inventing narratives on the orders of their owners.
Just imagine if those truckers had shown up outside the BBC, or the Guardian offices, and refused to budge until the media did their job… That’s probably not enough on its own, but something like it needs to become our general attitude to the traitors who presume to represent us today.
Even Jesus was silent when Pontius Pilate asked Him, “What is Truth?”, although it was certainly a deafening silence.
Until the time comes when the only choice is between Him and satan, we need to focus on what is actually effective – for the sake of our children and grandchildren, who will not otherwise get the education they need to know the difference.
I’ll wind up with a rather wonderful statement by Rudolf Steiner:
“A time will come when truth will be more a matter of experience than of proof”.
His focus was upon mankind’s further evolution – not exactly a popular concept today, but I think many of us here already know exactly what he was talking about, because we are experiencing it right now.
*
The BMJ has posted a few articles railing at some of the inconsistencies and monkey business surrounding this catastrophe (e.g., Facebook censorship) but who among the general populace goes to their website, let alone knows the publication even exists? As for the FDA, they are completely compromised and corrupted, and thus completely useless – we won’t get anything out of them except for more lies and obfuscation.
Reiner Fullmich finally got his grand jury hearing going but he had to create his own court (the “court of public opinion” as he refers to it) to do it since no offical court would agree to take it on. I’ve watched a bit of it so far and it seems they have it together. But I don’t think they’ll accomplish very much. It certainly won’t get any coverage from the stenographers of the MSM.
The power to stop this still lies with the people. But unless a vast majority wakes up from their hypnotic state and recognizes what’s going down, this thing will probably just play out to its logical conclusion.
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We live in strange times. Many whom we had assumed would choose freedom are choosing fascism and calling it freedom while calling us fascists. I ventured into the eye of the #BlackfaceHitler twitter storm where many are disgusted but few have answers or ideas for how to end the tyranny. Trudeau is just one of many elected fascists, and so it is good to see protests spread to other countries. In NewZealand the protesters are determined to hold the line until the mandates end. The politicians and media along with their flock cannot seem to come to grips with that reality though, and so yes I expect Adhern to use brute force fairly soon. Climate activists were discussing how they could learn from the protest in terms of what 𝘯𝘰𝘵 to do without realising that the core lesson is not to go home at the end of the day.
One missing ingredient in the global revolt though is a replacement political and economic ideology or framework. One detractor insulted the protesters by saying they are living in a stateless moneyless borderless commune without a leader as if that is a bad thing and on account of the protesters supposedly being “alt-right”.
All nation states are essentially totalitarian on account of there being no clearly defined limits on government power, and democracy in its current form always results in the same kind of people getting elected:people who will abuse that power. Democracy cannot work without an informed majority and yet how can we prevent the filthy rich from owning politicians and the media? If we
try to structure our economies purely with money we will have capitalists pushing us around. If we try to curtail capitalism we end up with governments pushing us around.