EU Leaders Can Talk Like Churchill, Kennedy Or De Gaulle But Putin Knows They Are Armchair Generals

 

 

The most significant exstential threat to the European Union is not the Ukraine war or other member states deciding to follow the UK out of the wannabe Federal Superstate of Franco - Germany but the sovereign debt crisis. The new, and largely imagined threat from Russia after the inevitable fall of Kiev, and the scramble by former military, now bankrupt, powers to rearm is a consequence of that as to a large extent is Putin's confidence that Europe poses no obstacle to achieving his objectives.

Their is a modern myth in Brussels, Paris and Berlin that former European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi single-handedly solves the EU's debt crisis when he told the world that he would do “whatever it takes” to save the euro and announced a 'backstop.' It is a convenient explanation because it assumes that the crisis is over.

But Draghi's apparent financial wizardry was nothing more than the removal of Eurozone borrowing limits, so member states were free to keep creating fiat money by issuing bonds underwritten by ... nothing. Thus the crisis could come back sooner than we think, in fact in many respects it has already done so with a vengance. Last time the Eurozone faced financial collapse, it was the southern Europeans who triggered it. This time, it is the northern Europeans with their burgeoning welfare spending and their relentless importing of vast numbers of unskilled, illiterate and innumerate third world migrants.

In 2010, a Greek deficit, overshot by some $20 billion, triggered an EU-wide financial crisis, a paltry amount compared to the extra defence spending European countries are about to commit: $500 billion, by my calculations, every year. The Greek deficit was a finance minister taking his eye off the ball, but our increase in military spending is a life sentence. After 10 years, we will have spent a cool $5 trillion. This is on top of what we are spending already.

To put this into perspective, when the UK Labour government cut off the winter fuel payments to pensioners, that saved them less than $1.8 billion. We all remember the furious political reactions, public opinion backlash and the botched U-turn that destroyed whatever iota of credibility Keir Starmer's government might have had. If the UK was really serious about meeting the Nato 5%-of-GDP target, the UK government would have to spend a cool $100 billion each year. That’s 55 times as much as the savings on the fuel subsidies. In fact, it is more than half of the UK’s entire welfare budget, excluding pensions.

But every West - European nation is in the same boat, numbers that are off the scale everywhere we look, and with the German economic powerhouse that has financially propped up the EU for three decades now transformed by woke policies into an economic shithouse. This week, Nato leaders will met in The Hague to agree the fiscally most impactful decision that politicians have ever committed to in modern history. They do so without an electoral mandate. 

None of them campaigned for election on a manifesto pledge to hugely increase taxes in order to return to cold war relationships with Russia, including those who came to power in the years since Putin invaded Ukraine, like Keir Starmer or Friedrich Merz. None of them received a formal mandate for rearmament from the parliaments, which are ultimately responsible for fiscal expenditures in Western democracies. 

They are doing this because Donald Trump just pulled this number out of a hat. It was just a number. He could just as easily have said four, or six percent. Nobody did a study beforehand on what Nato actually needs, and how the needed capabilities are best acquired. We are talking about the biggest fiscal programme in human history — because Europeans are dead scared that Trump will abandon us to the Russian bear.

We Europeans live in some of the richest countries in the world, and we are facing an existential threat. So who cares about the cost?  Our politicians believe it is important that we bolster our defences to disabuse Russian leaders of any idea that they could test Nato’s security guarantee with impunity. We should not talk ourselves into a war, as some hotheads are doing now. But we should be in a position to fight one.

It is doubtful the new Nato target will help us do this. Given the lack of any political willingness to pool our defence purchases, what will Putin make of our newly announced 5% spending target? He is already spending 6-8% of Russia economic output on defence, but the impact is much higher than those numbers suggest. 

European leaders  have belatedly realised what an incredibly weak position they are in. The rest of the world is laughing at our self-inflicted NetZero sabotage, inward migration, deindustrialisation and lack of resources. Watching European countries virtue signalling governments developing carbon-neutral eco-friendly, trans and queer inclusive woke, armies will be comedy gold.

The test for any joint European force will be if they can defend the Suwalki Gap, which, according to military strategist, is the most likely move for Putin.

Will he? Maybe. Will he invade Poland, or another non ex-Soviet country, and then take the whole of Western Europe? No. Why would he? Territory is one thing Russia is not short of. 

What resources do we have? We have some nice scenery, a varied cuisine, good scientists, great architecture and art, but what else is so valuable that it is worth the expense of trying to maintain control over a restive and already fracturing population? The road to Paris is no more feasible than the road to Moscow.

Curtis identified the driver of globalist policy after 9/11 in ‘The Power of Nightmares’, control of domestic populations through fear and a common enemy. It explains Iran’s ‘Great Satan’ rhetoric perfectly. Putin, who the media reliably informed me in 2022 (ad almost every day since,) was about to die of cancer after he invaded Ukraine, is the last candidate standing, now Iran has (allegedly) been removed from the threat picture. Strange that these alarmists never mention China.

If the US continues down the isolationist road, contrarians might argue that it is far more likely we will make peace with The Bear in a few years time and eventually be part of the same economic group, just as Taiwan will likely eventually choose to reunify with China once the US has internally replaced its chip dependency.

We could have been much further down the road to economic cooperation after 1991 but it would not have suited the US for that to happen, so it broke the informal, non - expansion agreement Bill Clinton made with Yeltsin and moved the buffer zone into NATO, and the rest is history. 

FROM THE ARCHIVE: 

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Nobel economist Says Euro was flawed from start and destined to collapse'

In a book to be published next week, ‘The Euro: How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe,' (an extract of which has been published by The Guardian,  Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stilgitz writes the European Single Currency System (The Euro) was flawed at birth and is destined to collapse unless huge changes are made to the common currency system.


"The euro is often described as a bad marriage. A bad marriage involves two people who never should have been joined together making vows that are supposedly indissoluble. The euro is more complicated: it is a union of 19 markedly different countries tying themselves together," said an extract from the book published by the Guardian.


A professor of economics at Columbia University, and former senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, Stiglitz observed that the euro had neither delivered prosperity to European Union member states, nor had it smoothed the path to political integration of those members into a single political entity, the two principal goals of they system's architects. As a result, European nations are now starting to divide into cultural blocs and view each other with suspecion. German Dominance Of Europe Through A European Bureaucracy Germany, the only member which had benefited from the Euro
, until Changellor Angela Merkel's 'open doors' immigration policy allowed unskilled, illiterate third world peasants to flood into the country, is now looking politically isolated in the organisation it once presumed to dominate.

According to the Stilgitz a single currency designed to hold together a region with enormous economic and political diversity is almost incapable of working. Excuse us for blowing our own trumpet but this is what our own finance expert, Phil T. Looker, has been saying for a decade. If nations do not control their own money then they cannot take steps to deal with changing economic conditions according to the economic strengths and weaknesses of their nation.


Stilgitz also criticized the Eurozone leaders claiming they had no proper understanding of what a monetary union meant. The structure of the Eurozone,its rules and regulations, was not designed to promote growth, employment and stability but to advance the single European supertate agenda and globalism.


The critique of Eurozone economics continues,  "The mark of a well-functioning economy is rapid growth, the benefits of which are shared widely, with low unemployment. What has occurred in Europe is the opposite. .. A small country in Europe could, for instance, be in a recession when the rest of Europe is doing well."


Or as we have witnessed since the Euro was launched in 2001, a large and economically powerful country with a solid economy (Germany) could be doing well while other large but less economically stable nations such as France and Italy struggle and small nations with weak economies (Greece, Portugal,) face ever deepening economivc chaos.


According to Stiglitz large parts of the Eurozone now face a 'lost decade,' and even Europe's so-called successes have become colossal failures. He gives the example of Spain where official statistics show unemployment has fallen from 26 percent in 2013, to 20 percent at the beginning of 2016 - but nearly one out of every two people are unemployed. This is possible because European Union rules on measuring unemployed statistics dictate that people who have been out of work for two years are excluded from the statistics.


The economist suggested the best way forward for the euro area is a ‘flexible euro,’ where each member country adopts its own version of the currency. They could of course simply revert to the curriencies they had before monetary union.


Scrapping the idea of monetary integration could help the weak  southern European countries export more and import less, helping to achieve a trade balance and full employment, writes Stiglitz.



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Italy's Banks Are Crashing Like Tesla Cars, EU Bureaucrats Try To Blame Brexit

Italian banks have been dropping like flies this past couple of days.

If you recall, I did tell you a couple of weeks ago the IMF and ECB had been desperately firefighting in their efforts to hold off the Eurozone collapse until after the Referendum, so they could blame everything on Brexit.

It is no coincidence of course that only a few days after the Brexit vote everybody suddenly remembered the Eurozone was so far up shit creek even a rubber dinghy could get no further. Several Eurozone nations have been bankrupt for over a year, the largest being Italy and no matter how much cash Britain and Germany threw into the pot every week the basket case economies of southern Europe would inevitably drag down the whole edifice. And exactly as predicted by many of us who do to have an Economics PhD to prove we have been brainwashed by the Higher Education system, Italy is leading the way.

The Financial Times reports the price of a bond issued by Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s third-largest lender, plunged more than a tenth today (5 July, 2016) in the latest sign of growing investor alarm over bad debts within the country’s financial institutions.

Italians are wise enough to know there are far more important things than money (pictire: Portofino; source: blog.colourfulrebel.com

Years of lax lending standards left Italian banks ill-prepared when an economic slump sent bankruptcies soaring a few years ago. At one major bank, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, bad loans were so thick it assigned a team of 700 to deal with them and created a new unit to house them. Several weeks ago, the bank put the bad-credit unit up for sale, hoping a foreign partner would speed the liquidation process.

Europe's non-performing loan problem is such a huge problem that there is increasing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take this garbage on to its balance sheet. Bad debts and non-performing loans (NPLs) reduce the ability of banks to lend, thus in an economy that runs on debt, from government debt to the overdrafts and credit card balances of people like you and me. Bad debts, i.e. debts on which no interest is being earned and there is no chance of collecting outstanding repayments, consume capital and make banks more risk averse at a time when governments are desperate to kick off a consumer led recovery by making cheap, sub - prime loans available. With Italy (NPLs 13.4%) now following the same trajectory as Spain's bad debts, the situation is rapidly escalating (at an average of around 2.5% increase per year).

The bottom line is that at its core, it is all simply a bad-debt problem, and the more the bad debt, the greater the ultimate liability on investors, including people who have modest savings or deposit accounts and pension funds. The big question in Europe is: how much capacity to write off bad debt there is in the various European nations before savings and pensions have to take a haircut?

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has produced warnings of doom and gloom for the U.K. economy. However it was always the case that damage to the rest of Europe could be more serious given the precarious financial state of the Eurozone and the strain imposed on the German economy by the immigration crisis. The greatest risk is concentrated in the Italian banking sector where 17% of banks’ loans not being serviced. That is nearly 10 times the level in the U.S., where, even at the worst of the 2008-09 financial crisis, it was only 5%. Among publicly traded banks in the eurozone, Italian lenders account for nearly half of total bad loans.

Anxiety has now spread from stock markets, where shares in the world’s oldest bank have fallen by more than a quarter this week to reach a record low, after the European Central Bank demanded it shed another €10bn in bad loans.


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The Eurozone is a Disaster; Britain Must Leave the EU’ says City Economist

One of the leading City Of London economists has said that the European Single Currency System (eurozone) is a “complete disaster” and that “Britain needs to leave the EU”. Roger Bootle, founder of Capital Economics talking to Money Week about his new book, 'The Trouble With Europe', which he says he wrote to get his thinking straight on Europe, has said that a Brexit would be the best thing for the UK economy.

“I think the eurozone is a complete disaster and I’m not a Johnny-come-lately on this subject I was saying it right from the beginning,” he said. “The problem is really two-fold: firstly, you’ve got these countries on the southern periphery: Greece, of course, the most intense example, but also Italy, Spain and Portugal, which are uncompetitive.

“But the second aspect which is not fully appreciated, and it is, I think, at least as important, and that is the tendency for Germany and The Netherlands and some other countries, but mainly those two, to do too much saving. They run their policies too tightly.

“What the euro has done is it’s locked together these two groups of countries that behave fundamentally differently. In the old days the exchange rate acted as a flex, a hinge, enabling those two sorts of countries to work together. Without out it well you’ve got this ghastly stagnation.”

Bootle who has always been eurosceptic, said that it was not until he sat down and started writing the book that he fully weighed up the costs and benefits of being in the EU. At the moment, he said, there “are so many studies of the issue that show actually the net balance of advantages and disadvantages is fairly small.”

But as the EU economy becomes more sclerotic thanks to the weight centralized regulation, Bootle said it would become increasingly advantageous for Britain to leave the bloc and make its own way in the world.

“Probably in the long term [the economic costs are] not marginal. I see Europe going largely the wrong way: over-regulation, over-integration.

“I think the costs of that are going to grow over time; and similarly, Europe is fading in relative importance in the world. I think if Britain were outside the European Union it could take another direction. It could deregulate quite a lot, and, I think, bring quite a lot of advantages.

Responding to questions over whether an independent Britain would have to enact EU regulations anyway in order to maintain trade agreements with the EU, Bootle responded: “This is a tricky issue. I think one of the most important points in the case against staying in is that yes we have to have certain regulations in place if we’re trading with Europe but if we weren’t in the EU we’d only have to have those in place in those industries and businesses which were exporting to the EU.

“Of course, that’s a tiny minority in relation to the system as a whole. If you’re in the EU then you have to impose those regulations across the whole economy. So, little sandwich sellers in Dagenham have to comply with the regulations about working hours and all these other things, whereas if we weren’t in the EU that wouldn’t apply.”

Bootle’s comments come as the British Eurosceptic campaigns gear up for a referendum fight, following the Conservative’s victory in last week’s general election. Prior to the election Prime Minister David Cameron had vowed to hold an in-out referendum on the back of treaty renegotiations by 2017, although reports this week suggest that a vote could come as early as next year.

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