contributed by Hugh Jarse, 4 June 2026
It seems peace talks between the USA and Iran have now stalled completely thanks to the intervention of the Israelis although whether there were ever realistic hope for a lasting peace and full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seaway will probably never be known.
What this means to the west and the democratic nations of south east Asia and the Pacific area is that we are in for prolonged high prices for fuel, disruption of supply lines and soaring cost of living as Russia and China take advantage of the situation to turn the screws and squeeze western economies.
Another possibility is Iran will fall. Unfortunate but the possibility exits. Instead of shutting out the possibility Russia should plan (and probably has,)to turn it into a grand opportunity. If Iran is weakened it will be likely to host Russian military bases in the country to counter the threat from Israel. Russia has been asking this but thus far Iran has refused. Very bad memories of WW2 events when Russia joined the evil empires. Having a military presence in the Strait of Hormuz is a game changer for Russia. Unlike Iran, Russia can’t be negotiated away from assuming a hostile position.
This would create a massive bargaining chip to force surrender of Lewinsky Zelensky regime (pun so intended), lift petroleum sanctions against Russia (or Arab oil goes nowhere), a warm water port in Chabahar for nuclear submarines that more than compensate for the loss of Black Sea and Baltic Sea exits. Azerbaijan stands in the way of total Russian domination of the region.
This Turkish outpost is a threat to the region. It’s easy game. Thereafter Oman too can be cleared paving the way for Iran to control the entire Arabic coastline other than inlets. Djibouti and surrounds are already pro-Iranian thanks to the Al-Shabab and Houthi alliance. The decision makers in the north see this once in a century opportunity. But all depends on a weakened Iran. It’s still strong. Let the fools do all the hard work of weakening Iran before Russia moves, that's how the Russians have always worked.
It’s not well known that Russia is one of the leading exporters of foodstuffs, grains especially. Its farmers believe Russia has the ability to solve what they call the food problem, meaning global hunger. Within Russia and the Central Asian EAEU members, there’s a vast amount of land that can be cultivated or made into pasture, plus the advances in greenhouse farming is remarkable allowing crops to be grown in what are very marginal climates. While governments in the UK and Europe obsess over crackpot policies like Net Zero, 'rewilding and importing all food and manufactured goods (paid for with money borrowed from China via the global banks,) the nations our leaders tell us are 'The Bad Guys' have positioned themselves to take advantage of the sentimental stupidities that pass for economic policy in the developed nations.
We should also look at the advances African nations have made toward attaining food sovereignty with help from Russia and China. The nations most affected by the fertiliser shortage caused first by the sanctions imposed on Russia for its action against the Ukronazis in Kiev and now exacerbated by the much reduced flow of goods out of The Persian Gulf, are those with industrial agriculture methods including the use of GM seeds whose high yields depend on those inputs.
This kind of response from Russia and China is understandable, the US and Europe
have been working to impoverish Russia since before 1945, and has
colonised and exploited Africa since way before then, and has been no friend to China until it suited the elites and the global banks to use China as the world's workshop because of its low labour costs and a totalitarian systrem of government unencumbered by the lobbying of 'save-the-planet' screechers.
As things stand it looks increasingly possible the USA and Europe will lose the current set of wars that we are undertaking. Prolonged war would leave European Russia severely damaged. Asian Russia and Central Asia are likely to survive mostly intact and have a convenient long border with China. The US and Europe will continue to promote war and submission in Africa, but that is coming to an end due to growing Chinese influence on the dark continent. None of the west's leaders appear to possess the testicular fortitude to risk pissing off the Chinese as they have the Russians
After the west's capitulation, Asian Russia would probably become very prosperous.
Prosperous enough to rebuild European Russia, and then
help with other regions after that. Africa will steadily grow and
become an independent continent. If they become mostly internally
peaceful with respect to each other, Africa will prosper.
The US has the ability to destroy lots of the world before it loses, and
the odds of the US unleashing nukes is not zero. However, if the Democrats retake the White House at the end of the Trump presidency and revert to the loonytoons policies of the Obama and Biden eras, the ability of the US to control other nations will become
close to non-existent. Even if the Epstein class relocates to
Argentina, their wealth and power will be substantially reduced. Thus we can be reasonably optimistic about the long term future of humanity on the planet Earth.
It’s just the short term we should be concerned about.
Another possibility is Iran will fall. Unfortunate but the possibility exits. Instead of shutting out to the possibility Russia should plan to turn it into a grand opportunity. If Iran is weakened Iran will likely host Russian military bases in the country. Russia has been asking this but thus far Iran has refused. Very bad memories of WW2 events when Russia joined the evil empires.
Having a military presence in the Strait of Hormuz would be a game changer for Russia. Unlike Iran, Russia can’t be negotiated away from assuming a hostile position. A massive bargaining chip to force surrender of Lewinsky Zelensky regime (pun so intended), lift petroleum sanctions against Russia (or Arab oil goes nowhere), a warm water port in Chabahar for nuclear submarines that more than compensate for the loss of Black Sea and Baltic Sea exits.
Azerbaijan stands in the way of total Russian domination of the region. This Turkish outpost is a threat to the region. It’s easy game. Thereafter Oman too can be cleared paving the way for Iran to control the entire Arabic coastline other than inlets. Djibouti and surrounds are already pro-Iranian thanks to the Al-Shabab and Houthi alliance. Hope the decision makers in the north see this once in a century opportunity.
But all this depends on a weakened Iran. It’s still strong. Let the fools do all the hard work of weakening Iran before Russia moves the knight. Oh a byproduct will be the collapse of the entity hanging north of the Red Sea.
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