The almost complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is really starting to bite in the wider world as oil stocks dwindle, prices rise and disruption in supply chains threatens shortages of food and other vital commodities.
Negotiations between the US and Iran are stalled. We hear and read stories about people from the US and Iran flying here, there and everywhere to take part in 'talks, but the negotiations that are supose to lead to an agreed settlement are' not really happening at all.
Over the weekend online news site Axios reported that Iran presented the US with a proposal to reopen the Strait, not to end the war. That proposal includes extending Trump's ceasefire and an assertion that any conversations about Iran’s nuclear program are off the agenda until the Strait is reopened and the US blockade is lifted. The US has not indicated whether it will accept or reject the proposal at the time of writing.
Assuming the US does agree to extend its indefinite that is of negligable significance. Remember, keeping the Strait open was a condition of the current ceasefire as agreed to on April 8, and we can all see how well that held up. Just take a look at fuel prices at the pump.
While conversations between the US and Iran stall, Iran is making friends elsewhere. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi met with Putin yesterday, as Bloomberg reported that Araghchi told Putin he is “committed to strengthening the country’s partnership with Russia” and that “the Iranian people are able to ‘resist US aggression and will be able to overcome it.’”
Iran and Russia may be cosying up, but the US and Germany are not. During a visit to a school in western Germany, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the Trump Administration was being “humiliated” by Iran: “The Iranians are clearly stronger than expected and the Americans clearly have no truly convincing strategy in the negotiations either. A whole nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership.”
Trump has not yet commented on Merz’ claims.
The longer the Strait remains closed, the longer the European economy, and energy complex, is squeezed. Germany, like The UK, Fance, Spain and Italy has rejected Trump’s calls to support his bid to reopen The Strait under NATO, control. This is despite German leaders softly echoing support of US military efforts.
Europe has drafted a plan to re-open the Strait after the war has ended, that is not enough to appease Trump, who has made his demands for NATO participation in the Iran war clear. But the question remains just how much collateral damage Europe is willing to be subject to in the pursuit of keeping its hands clean.
Europe’s and in particular Germany's reliance on energy from the Middle East and direct flows through the Strait of Hormuz, since the supply from Russia died up suggest that they are in for more pain than the US under a prolonged closure.
Germany was hit harder by the war in Ukraine than any other west European nation as German industry was hugely dependent of oil and gas pumped directly from Russia via the Nordstream pipeline until that was sabotaged, allegedly by Ukrainian military personnel supported by US and NATO technology and expertise.
At the same time, Europeans don’t have a fanatical obduracy to soak up the pain like the Iran (or rather, the IRGC at the expense of the Iranian people). If negotiations fail to result in a somewhat peaceful re-opening of the Strait and conclusion of the US naval blockade, Europe may have no choice but to get involved.
It’s
probable that the Trump Administration is aware of this. Trump has
lambasted European leaders for refusing to support the US and in some
cases, outright refusing to cooperate. If the US keeps the
Strait closed and inflicts enough second-hand damage on Europe, Trump
may be able to achieve the NATO military “cooperation” he has been
asking for.
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