by Egbert Nohbakkon
There's been a lot of claim and counterclaim since Trump's Truth Social Post earlier this week: first he demanded that eight young women whom he said were on death row in Iran for protesting against the theocratic regime must be released. Then on Thursday Trump proclaimed that Iran complied.
But Iran rejects the whole narrative from the start. "Trump was misled once again by fake news," the Islamic Republic judiciary's official Mizan Online website said. "The women who were claimed to be on the verge of execution, some of them have been released, while others face charges that, if convictions are upheld, would at most result in imprisonment."
HOwever instead of peace talks today, the US-Iran ceasefire is on the brink of collapse and the situation in Strait of Hormuz is heating up.
Despite Trump's two-week deadline for reaching a deal ending today, Vice President JD Vance never boarded a plane to Pakistan for further negotiations as had been advertised and neither did anyone from Iran. Instead, Donald Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely and the IRGC has today attacked several more international ships in the Strait.
Is the war about to restart? Who knows what might happen next with unpredictable characters like Trump and Netanyahu squaring up to the equally unpredictable Ayatollahs and religious fanatics in Tehran..
So far Israel is the only winner in this war, they got what they wanted - the destruction of Arab countries in the gulf and Lebanon. As usual the Arabs & Iran were placed to fight each other as is common practice to have neighboring countries fight each other - most recently Ukraine & Russia, in the past France and Germany, China and Japan, Russia and Turkey, etc.. Trump has also diverted oil tankers from the Gulf to Houston, Lousiana, Alaska, Venezuela . .. thus capitalising on the disruption of Arab country oil resources and suply lines.
The same was done in the early days of the war in Ukraine. The Biden adminitration destroyed with sanctions and sabotage the vital flow of cheap oil and gas from Russia to the European Union. The main purpose of that escapade was to steal away the oil market from Russia and place the market under 100% US control. The US stole the entire oil and LNG market away from Russia under pretext of the war to liberate Ukraine. Trump at least understands the world still runs on hydrocarbons, and is trying to re-establish US hegmony by controlling that vital resource.
A factor in the longevity of the conflict in Ukraine is that neither the Ukies nor the Russians really want peace. They are puruing ancient hatreds and appear to want to destroy each other. The same can be said of Israel (Zionism) and the Iranian Islamist regine.
This war is much the same. Under the pretext of liberating the oppressed people of Iran, the very predictable Iranian response of weaponising the Strait of Hormuz, has blocked all oil trade of Arab countries and enabled The USA to use the war as a pretext to steal the oil markets in the Middle East and shift them to the US , in effect stealing the oil markets again. It looks as if the purpose of the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is not Iran, it is to seize the oil market from the Arab countries and move this oil market to the US. A big gamble.
The longer the Arabs are landlocked, the easier to seize this market permanently. That is why opening the hormuz is not a priority for trump. the longer this war last and the more the Arabs fight with the Iranians the more damage to the oil infrastructure in the Gulf which will take 5 to 10 years to recover. In the meanwhile, trump will have seized the oil market from the Arabs.
The EU will have severe problems. They lack energy and airline traffic have already become severely curtailed because NATO jets have preference for jet fuel. Tourism will be severely constrained 2026, fuel costs for business, domestic and transport use are rocketing and a rapid rise in the cost of living is driving many European citizens into poverty.
There really is only one way to end this war. That is to force open the Straits and erect a sea route seige on Iran with no imports or exports. Iran has the capability of occasionally getting lucky with attacking a ship. But with complete air security, surveillance drones and rapid response military the great majority of such attacks would fail, especially with a convoy system in place. All that is then needed is for the USA and friendly governments of the Gulf to provide war insurance to shipping. The cost will be small compared to the cost of conventional attacks.
It is our fear of casualties, no matter how few that gives Iran its ace card. We have to rediscover our martial spirits and accept that this is a war and people on both sides get hurt. The question is: do the people with the power to end the war want to end it.
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