What can be said about Chancellor Reeves latest attempt to destroy what is left of the UK economy, the 'Spring Statement' which was released earlier this week only to be met with scorn and ridicule (and that was just from her colleagues in the Labour Party.)
Starmer and Reeves, political partnership or comedy double act? Picture credit: Hollie Adams AFP
If they are honest with themselves, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be staring in alarm at what their stewardship has done so far to the British economy. We were heading into a financial crisis before the Labour government took office last July for many reasons, prominent among which were decades of lax immigration controls, the legacy of lockdowns and the far-too-generous benefits system.
Ms. Reeves did at least acknowledge the latter by announcing a crackdown on disability benefit payments to people deemed capable of work but, predictably, this went down like the proverbial Lead Zeppelin with the left wing of her party. However, even if it had been eagery embraced by all, the resulting saving would have been patltry compared to the rate at which government spending is exceeding income. This wold be frightening enough in itself but with Starmer's economic illiteracy and Reeves well documented problems with her CV the situation moves rom farcical to absurdity.
The Government has achieved one of its aims though, which is to balance one
very large predicted number, ie, that of taxation, with another,
spending, in 2030. This kind of economic planning is all guesswork of course. Five years ago nobody could have known how many billions of pounds would be poured into supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia, or that the pursuit of Net Zero would have gone from unrealistic to downright reckless. And nobody would have believed the measures to contain the spread of COVID 19 which were about to be introduced would remain in place like a tourniquet around the throat of industry and commerce for the next three years.
And just as five years ago nobody would have believed any warning that such things should be factored into financial planning now no one really believes the welfare savings, the growth figures, or the thouasands of 'green jobs' to be created by Net Zero' will actually materialise to replace those lost to doctrinaire policies. But the numbers add up on paper and that has always been good enough for politicians. One side of the House dutifully cheers, the other mocks and jeers. And the world goes on the same.
The whole charade is meaningless, not because things are going well, but because they are going very badly indeed.
One thing that has struck me with recent developments is the interviews that have been broadcast with regard to welfare cuts. Many people, it turns out, now see the prime function of the Government as being to provide them with the money they need to maintain a good standard of living.
Historically we do not have to look back very far into history to find a time times when the idea that the Government should provide for all its citizens needs and expect nothing in return would simply not have been countenanced. Even the socialist dictum of Karl Marx: "From each according to his ability to each according to his needs," puts the 'from' bit first. The fact that we have lost sight of that work ethic not only has a huge impact on our economy, it seems to have had a huge social and psychological impact on our national community as well.
Were we able to sweep aside the follies of the past and rebuild the apparatus of state from scratch would anyone design a welfare system like the ecurrent UK benefits agency? Listening to some of the recent comments and interviews it appears that as a rule of thumb Governments should not seek to fund more that 50% of its citizens needs.
Immediately of course people will demand to know where the other 50% is coming from? In that not-too-distant past we are looking back at, people had a work ethic, it was understood that the state did not owe anybody a living, apart from those unfortunate individuals with serious disability or chronic illness everybody could contribute something to society and there was such a thing as personal responsibility and our responsibility to others. Accepting that responsibility made people more inventive, resourceful, self reliant and resilient and able to form a more positive view of the future than the rather dismal. disaffected ones broadcast in recent days.
So this week’s tinkering to meet the fiscal rules in five years’ time means nothing. Almost certainly the crisis will be on us before electoral defeat can save Starmer, Reeves & Co. from the terrifying prospect of having to accept responsibility for their errors. As Dr Dan Mitchell, prominent US economist and commentator put it this week: “I’ve been assuming that Italy will be the next country to suffer an economic and fiscal crisis, but the UK is heading in the wrong direction so rapidly that I may need to change my prediction.”
So much is obvious to any intelligent observer not blinded by the stream of meaningless drivel emitted by government figures in the past few days.
After all, Reeves is not entirely wrong in blaming her predecessors bu that while blaming them she hasn’t done anything different or brought any new ideas to the role. The last Conservative government pushed up spending and raised taxes. It was just as committed to net zero. It had its own Rental Reform Bill. Indeed at least Reeves is doing some planning reform to boost the construction industry; the Tories dumped Robert Jenrick’s planning reforms after one bad by-election.
The truth is there hasn’t been any real attempt to get to address Britain’s structural problems for 30 years or so. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown benefited from the reforms of Lady Thatcher and John Major. They used this legacy to make things worse: to push up taxes and spending, to begin the energy policy madness, to start importing large numbers of people, and to launch the process of collectivisation and over-regulation.
None of this was reversed under the Tories and Lib Dems. Most of the problems got worse. That’s why productivity growth is now not far off zero and why GDP per head is actually falling.
Someone now needs to offer a proper, serious alternative.
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