The war on Iran is spreading out of the Gulf region and escalating – and will continue do to so for a while. Tehran is being bombed to smithereens, and the Iranian navy is (soggy) toast, but the Strait of Hormuz, the key sea route though which 30% of the world's oil flows is closed the hydrocarbon infrastructure in the Gulf is shutting down or gets damaged, the economic pressure on the global economy is starting to show. Iran does not need warships to keep the Strait closed, just some mobile missile launching rigs and a load of cheap but highly effective drones.
The Strait of Hormuz, gateway to The Gulf (Picture: The Telegraph)
Speculatig about the likely length of the war does not answer the question of why the U.S. decide to attack Iran now. U.S. President Trump has give about a dozen different reasons none of which holds up to scrutiny. Iran wasn’t making nukes, didn’t build intercontinental missiles and had no intend to attack anyone. Its internal situation was and is stable.
The reason that makes most sense, although it has not been given by Trump himself so far, is that the US campaign against Iran is a proxy war with China, part of Trump's Grand Strategy to halt the rise of the communist state to true superpower status.
The goal is to obtain control via a puppet government in Tehran over Iran’s enormous oil and gas reserves so that they can be used as leverage against China for coercing it into a lopsided trade deal that would derail its economic expansion and thus restore US-led unipolarity.
Trump claimed that the US’ military campaign against Iran is to “defend the American people”, while many critics have alleged (whether in jest or not) that it’s to distract from the Epstein Files, but a few astute observers have realised that it’s actually about China. It was explained here that Trump 2.0 “decided to gradually deprive China of access to markets and resources, ideally through a series of trade deals, in order to imbue the US with the indirect leverage required to peacefully derail China’s superpower rise.”
To elaborate, “The US’ trade deals with the EU and India could ultimately result in them curtailing China’s access to their markets under pain of punitive tariffs if they refuse. In parallel, the US’ special operation in Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and simultaneous attempts to subordinate Nigeria and other leading energy producers could curtail China’s access to the resources required for fueling its superpower rise.” The resource dimension that’s relevant to Iran is a major part of the US’ “Strategy of Denial”.
The decision by USA and Israel to go to war against Iran was, according to Alistair Crooke speanking on Andrew Napolitano's YouTube show today, confirmed at the end of December, coinciding with Treasury’s attack on Iran’s currency/economy. The economic attack was followed by the orchestrated protests within Iran, which was accelerated by violent elements seeking to escalate violence on all sides, coordinated with external propaganda networks.
Current indications are that the Americans are trying to get some kind of ceasefire put in place, but their track record of negotiating in bad faith is severely limiting any progress there. Israeli hubris appears to have gone mute – three days ago they were joking about bomb shelter “pajama parties”, and now the joke is on them and they have yet to be seriously targeted. There is a very high chance should matters proceed as currently, that some sort of “doomsday” weapon will be employed by US and/or Israel (nuclear bomb, neutron bomb, etc)
There are also rumours that China is supplying Iran with weapons and technical support. What The Pentagon appears to have overlooked in their plan of campaign is that they are not fighting an ordinary enemy in Iran, they are fighting an ideology.
Meanwhile after an incursion by Israeli forces in Lebanon, an announcement was made that the Tehran - funded terror group Hezbollah had been “disarmed” in the south. As for Gaza, the Board of Peace looks sure to be dead after a single meeting.
FROM THE ARCHIVE:
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