Right now everybody seems to be playing the game of predicting how Trump's war in Iran will end. Will Trump send in the Marines and put American boots on Iranian ground to start a land war? Will the Ayatollahs close entrance to the Gulf completely and plunge the global economy into total chaos? Will the US Navy supported by six sailors from Britain, a couple of French chefs, and a sheep shearer from Australia (unless he stops off in Bangkok en route to the Gulf and forgets why he left Oz in the first place,) will escort dozens of Tankers a day through The Strait of Hormuz where all marine traffic will be sitting ducks for Iranian artillery, missiles, unmanned drone boats?
It's a futile game because as lomg as Iran has any military personnel it can keep the narrow seaway closed.
There are only two ways this kerfuffle can end: either Iran capitulates, or Iran fights on but becomes a bankrupt failed state with a wrecked economy. Which of the two occurs depends on Iran’s stubbornness, the patience of the USA and Israel and how much support Russia and China are prepared to give their allies in Tehran. For Trump, a quick Iranian surrender is the preferred option for now, but Trump is known for changing his mind and as his original four week timeframe for ending this war is not looking good we should be prepared for an even crazier reaction from the US President.
There is no outcome where an intransigent Iran comes out of this intact, but then it can be argued that Iran has been a failed state since Shah Reza was ousted by a bunch of ragheads who wanted to drag the middle east's most advanced and prosperous nation back to a state of medieval, theocratic ignorance.
Iran’s oil economy could be the key for USrael to exploit. The threat of destroying Iran’s oil industry ought to be more effective than the act itself but it carries a huge risk. Destroying the energy industry can’t be undone in the event of regime change or Iran’s surrender. So far, strikes on energy installations have been just small enough to demonstrate that Iran’s economy can be destroyed any time USrael wishes. Iran’s leadership will continue to be circulated until somebody willing to cut a deal takes the reins.
Large scale attacks on Iranian oilfields or an invasion of Kharg Island could easly bring China into the conflict because the Chinese get most of their oil and petrochem products from Iran. And as we have said before Iran can cause catastrophic disruption in the global economy so long as they have the ability to keep The Strait of Hormuz closed. And they can do that as long as China is prepare to keep supplying the missiles and Russia the drones.
Iran can wreck the whole global economy and, so long as it retains the ability to launch missile and drone strikes, can set Arab oil producing states back years. America's claims of economic and military dominance will be challenged by China. EU will go through economic and political hell s it is forced to be dependent on Russian gas and oil. The globe – and now, Americans – will pay a heavy price for letting Israel run loose. Iran has leverage and will use it. They will suffer but not be defeated anymore than Vietnam was.
Longer term the problem we Boggart Bloggers see is that USA is mostly untouchable on their continent – not that their economy can’t or won’t crash – but once they recover from that and a possible civil war they may have an economy, area, navy but without competent leadersp (and the Democrats are even more incompetent than The Republicans,) those things mean nothing.
The UK, under leadership even more incompetent that the US or EU will fail to grasp the opportunity of exploiting the oil and gas reserves under seas surrouding the British archipelago and so continue its decline as leaders and ruling elites congratulate themselves on being the most 'woke' failed state on the planet
Another problem for the USA is that the current conflict hurts others more than
the Iran. If the US deep state sacrifices Trump and withdraws from the region there will
be plenty countries willing to deal with the Ayatollahs, Japan, EU, India, GCC
states, China, Russia.. There is no enduring morailty among states.
USA isn’t really something Iran can touch apart from causing economic pain by keeping the entrance to the Gulf closed. This is enough to cause trouble but end of the day there are still 350 million
of them sitting in their own space churning out weapons for revenge, drilling, fracking and pumping for survival. Not
sure how a moral rejuvenation of Ameerica would look like and what
might induce it. Americans won’t look into a mirror tomorrow and ask
“are we the Baddies? Is it us who should have stayed atr home and let other nations deal with their own problems”. This would need cataclysmic levels of
deprogramming.
There are some things Iran doesn’t seem to be getting too well. Shia heaven and all but if you allow an experienced well spoken and respected person like Larjani to be killed, you have taken an avoidable loss. Tying one hand behind your back and sparing Israeli IDF reservist civilians instead of taking out their enrgy on day one – mistake.
FROM THE ARCHIVE:
Have you read or heard in your news supplier of choice of the recent massive troop movements in Israel, the massive build up of British, French and American warships around the approaches to the Persian gulf or just how badly the situations in Egypt and Libya have deteriorated since ...
Irony Overload: Iran Warns Obama Not To Cross Red Lines
the United States concluded an agreement with Iran which lifted US and International sanctions in return for Islamic Shi'ite Republic agreeing to limit their nuclear ability. At a high level, the US would lead the way in lifting oil and financial sanctions imposed due to Iran’s nuclear programs; in return Iran would reduce their stockpile of enriched uranium,
"West's War In Syria Is Part Of A Global war Waged By The USA And Its Dupes Allies Against Russia"
Arthur Foxake brings us a brilliant analysis of the geopolitical picture from the black Sea and Middle East, but ahead of the embed window we get a few of Arthur's own thoughts on the situation
Labour leader Corbyn rejects bombing Syria, blames BRITAIN and the US for the rise of ISIS: because it will spark more ‘mayhem’
Though the story is from The Daily Mail which, we expect to be one of the new Labour leader's greatest critics, it's good to see Mainstream Media actually reporting one of the things Jezza is getting right. Obviously he reads The Daily Stirrer because we've been saying since ISIS were pulled out of ...
How Hillary Clinton Planned The Syrian Holocaust We bring you evidence that the destruction of Syria was planned by the USA and Israel long before the US engineered 'spontaneous uprising'known as The Arab Spring ...
Another Obama Sponsored Genocide - not Alawi or Christians In Syria but Yazidi in Iraq.While the west has been distracted by events in Gaza and Ukraine, and the neo - fascist 'left' have suddenly discovered the joys of anti Russianism and anti Semitism, the FUKUS axis sponsored genocidists of ISIS have discovered another inoffensive minority to exterminate now that the Syriac Christians have fled.
More Than ISIS, Iraq’s Sunni Insurgency
The story emerging in Iraq is of another American foreign policy fuck up, a total misreading of the situation by the world's most parochial global power. By December 2013, Sunni leaders had become tired of the jihadi group the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) actions in their areas and publicly supported the Iraq government’s military campaign against the group’s bases. Unfortunately the ISIS rebels were armed with US military technology and Obama was calling for the resignation of the government in Baghdad, prompting Russia and Iran to support them ...
Poison Gas Used In Syria Sparks Calls For Western Military Invasion
Claims circulating in Washington, London and Brussels that chemical weapons have been used in the Syrian conflict have prompted less conspiracy theories and more intelligent discussion that we might expect. Even so commentators in mainstream media have divided into two opposing camps – those who believe that President Obama's failure to ...
An Islamic cleric has pronounced a fatwa that permits US-backed FSA rebels to rape non-Sunni women in Syria as part of a "sexual jihad" that has so far involved girls as young as 14 being transported to remote areas of the country to service the needs of ...
France sends more troops to Mali as UN backs intervention
A contingent of 750 French troops has joined the offensive against Islamist rebels in Mali, French president Francois Hollande said in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday after France secured fresh UN backing for its military action
Over 4000 Civilians Have Died In Forgotten War.
As attention has focused on Syria ans then on the efforts of the Obama administration, in its dying months, to avenge the defeat of the anointed successor Hillary Clinton and discredit the election victor and President - elect Donald Trump, and simultaneously demonize Russia and President Putin
I Would Do anything To Get Assad Out Of Syria Says Cameron
Syrian president Bashar Assad could be allowed a free pass to flee his country if it would end the bloodshed, David Cameron said today. The Prime Minister said he would do ‘anything to get that man [Assad] out of the country’ but refused to offer Assad a safe haven in Britain. Mr Cameron is on the second day of ...
Will Egypt Seize Libya For Its Oil
If the conflict in Syria, currently showing signs of spreading to Turkey, Iraq and Kurdistan were to escalate into a regional war, a proxy for east and west to butt heads without sustaining too much domestic damage, is Egypt likely to take advantage of the distraction and
EXPLORE:
[Daily Stirrer] ... [ Our Page on on Substack ]... [Boggart Aboad] ... [ Ian Thorpe at Quora ] ... [ Greenteeth Home ] ... [ Greenteeth on Minds.com ] ... [ Here Come The Russians ] ... [ Latest Posts ] ... [ Blog Bulletin ]
No comments:
Post a Comment