Amid amid large scale exchanges of missile and drone fire across The PersianGulf today between Iranian and US forces, we can be sure that the Trump-Netayahu on-off-on war with Iran is on again. The battle for Hormuz has ramped up after the United States has undertaken three consecutive nights of major bombing raids against Iranian targets.
The IRGC says they targeted enemy weapons and parts storages in Bahrain and Kuwait. This after the US appeared to attack some critical Iranian infrastructure on coastal islands.
Later the IRGC has issued a fresh statement via state media on Tuesday, saying that "as long as the US evil stays in the middle east, not a drop of oil and gas will be exported from through The Strait Of Hormuz." It said further, per the press release that US aggression will have no result other than delaying the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
All the while President Trump is said to be "very serious" about his plan to impose a 20% toll on cargo transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a Semafor report says, citing a White House official who says the president has desired such a plan for months. Both warring sides are insisting that it is their side alone which will be 'guardian' over the strait.
ABC is meanwhile reporting during the mid-afternoon (US time) that American airstrikes on Iran have been underway for the last couple of course. And yet still, Iran's IRIB has said that the Islamic Republic "must control the entire Hormuz Strait in wartime".
That oil is the main weapon of Iran and the primary fear of USA is obvious. They
thought the MOU would allow free access to every ship in both directions through The Strait Of Hormuz. Well, this is what
they get for thinking they can out - bluff the Iranians. Why would Iran allow any unfriendly
ships to pass when the US military started violating the clauses
before, during and after the signing?? They knew this and got their oil
out as fast as they could and used the American threats to drag their
feet on the other vessels.
China reimporting is most likely refilling their reserves. An article a
few weeks back indicated China wasn’t interested in Iranian oil and all
the vessels headed there will be disappointed. Well, it was a propaganda
piece. They were parking there because they knew the MOU
was just buying time. Time Iran has used wisely, time the US squandered
because it and its friends were not able to refill their reserves.
In total some 7 m bpd exited the Gulf region through new outlets. The releases from reserves and the lifting of sanctions contributed to additional supplies of some 3-5 m bpd. The reduction of Chinese import demand amounted to some 5 m bpd.
Due to all the above measures the global supply of about 100 m bpd only shrank to about 92-95 m bpd. Global demand, especially due to the Chinese measures, dropped to a nearly equal balance. The amount that was still missing in this rough calculation was drawn from reserves within the distribution and transport levels.
After all measures were in place demand and supply were balanced again and oil prices came down to a normal level of some $70+/bl.
When U.S. President Donald Trump decided to reignite the conflict he might have thought that the oil problem he had feared had gone away. He was wrong.
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