One of the great mysteries of the war in Ukraine is why the Russians have put up with the crazy Ukie's escalations, provocations and murderous stupidity for so long. Ukraine could have had peace on very reasonable terms in April 2022 but chose to allow the USA and Europe to bribe or bully them into continuing the conflict.
In the intervening four years Russia has suffered significant losses of personnel and equipment but Ukraine has been crushed to the extent it will ever again be able to function as a nation.
As we move into the winter of 2026/27 statements from The Kremlin suggest Putin is at last preparing to destroy Ukraine's resistance. Maybe it is the possibility of earning huge revenues from resumption of the trade in its natural resources with the US after the conflict ends, an opportunity created by conflicts in the middle east which are not likely to reach an early conclusion as Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni Houthis, respectively allies of the original combatants, USA and Iran have now re-ignited their long standing animosity and that conflict has disrupted the flow of oil based exports from the Red Sea via the Bab al Mandab strait as well as through the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
Now is the winter of Ukraine's discontent - Picture: Zero Hedge
The New York Times claims to have intercepted Russian communications which discuss plans to obliterate Ukraine's power, heating, and water systems through the coming winter. Though this is not confirmed, it aligns with Putin "escalating to de-escalate" over the summer in response to Zelensky's strike campaign, which has taken the form of ramping up attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. If the report is true such action would bring Ukraine to its knees.
Putin has previously held back from this option, perhaps due to his belief that Russians and Ukrainians are kindred people. However some mainstream media commentators have suggested that Russia is running out of weapons, soldiers, oil, money and food, although their opinions seem to be based on Ukrainian propaganda. In the end it does not matter whether the development is due to low weapons production, trade opportunities or to hedge against the possibility of a hot war with NATO. If Putin and his politbureau have now realised Zelensky's corrupt regime will not surrender as long as the flow of cash and saleable goods from the west continues, the humanitarian consequences of ending the war on Russia's terms sooner rather than later, may well be less severe for the long suffering citizens of Ukraine than letting it run on until Zelensky & Co are ousted by rebellion or simply decide they have enough cash and golden toilets..
From a western point of view a number of American and European countries have some very large investments in Ukraine--mainly because Zelensky sold off chunks of Ukrainian land, resources and, we must presume, industries, to foreign interests--such as Blackrock and Monsanto. A Russian take-over of Ukraine--I think even of the parts of eastern Ukraine that are now essentially part of Russia--means that those who bought parts of Ukraine from Zelensky are now suffering from an "damaged assets" problem. That is they are either worthless or soon will be if Ukraine becomes part of Russia or is divided between Russia, Poland and Romania.
And having some very large worthless assets on the balance sheet is not good for corporate businesses or national economies. If the losses are big enough, this situation can cause a serious financial crisis.
So if the Trump administration and European leaders have been up to: trying to persuade Russia to make some kind of deal that would allow some of these investors to retain ownership, at least in part, of their holdings in areas that Russia has already taken over that makes sense. they will be looking for a way out, or some kind of relief at least.
I fear there are a lot of similar situations in the Middle East. A lot of banks and many of the world' biggest corporations lot of money that's not going to be paid back. We could be heading into the biggest financial crisis ever.
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